Boston Bulldog

If an absurd RI episode happens over the fish, but there's a gulf storm brewing, did it even happen? 145mph...what a shocking update lol

Now sonde #9 is labeled as in the eye. VDM will be telling

Not quite sure where the shear is decreasing narrative has come from. Currently the storm is dealing with moderate shear which is tilting the core despite the strong convection. We've observed several wrap up attempts that have failed so far, which is likely due to this ~15-20kts of shear, and some dry air still showing up around 800 hPa on dropsonde data. There has been no observed decrease in vertical wind shear over the past 24 hours ahead of the system or over the system. Idalia will remain under similar conditions as it lifts into the gulf. We may see a period of little to no shear as the flow switches direction while the tough approaches (likely when we will see the strongest chance for RI). From there the trough will begin to increase vertical shear again, this time southerly. However, favorable synoptic interaction with the equatorward entrance region of the jet streak that will be traversing the eastern US at this time will likely offset the negative effects of this southerly shear as Idalia approaches landfall thanks to diffluence. Just speculating here, but I wonder if this southerly shear and dry air behind the system at landfall would eat away at the back eyewall upon approach, as we have seen with so many other gulf "halficane" landfalls in recent years EDIT: Fixed poleward to equatorward

Wow, it looks like all systems are go tonight. Very interested in what recon shows regarding the character of this developing core. 60mph and 992mb. Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Idalia's center has become embedded beneath a large burst of deep convection, with overshooting cloud-top temperatures as cold as -82 degrees Celsius. NOAA buoy 42056, located just to the east of the center, has reported maximum 1-minute sustained winds as high as 45 kt within the past hour or two. The anemometer height of the buoy is 4 meters, so converting the wind to a standard 10-meter height indicates that Idalia's intensity is now up to at least 50 kt, which is the initial intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Idalia in a few hours. The center has been moving erratically since earlier today, and may have even sagged southward, pulled toward the recently developed deep convection. A northward motion is expected to begin on Monday and continue through Tuesday as Idalia moves between a mid-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and strengthening ridging over the Greater Antilles. After 48 hours, a gradual turn toward the northeast and then east is anticipated due to a deeper trough that is expected to swing across the Great Lakes. No significant changes were required for the updated NHC track forecast compared to the previous prediction. The spread among the track models remains relatively low, and the official track continues to lie closest to the ECMWF and HCCA consensus aid. Idalia is sitting over very warm waters of about 30 degrees Celsius, and when it moves northward, it will be over the even deeper warm waters of the Loop Current in 24-36 hours. Although the trough over the Gulf could impart some shear over the system, this is likely to be offset by upper-level diffluence. Idalia has already strengthened more than anticipated, and the environment looks ripe for additional intensification, possibly rapid. The NHC intensity forecast has been increased and lies at the upper bound of the guidance. The new prediction now shows a 95-kt hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but it should be stressed that additional strengthening to major hurricane strength is becoming increasingly likely before Idalia reaches the Gulf coast of Florida. Interests within the storm surge and hurricane watch areas are urged to prepare for possible significant impacts and monitor future updates to the forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and it could be near or at major hurricane strength when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida. The risk continues to increase for a life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday. Storm surge and hurricane watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of Florida and the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Scattered flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding across portions of the Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. 3. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far western Cuba late Monday. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across western Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 19.8N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 20.7N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 22.2N 85.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 24.2N 84.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 26.8N 84.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 29.6N 82.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/0000Z 32.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 01/0000Z 34.3N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 34.4N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

Well timed microwave pass gives us a good look under the hood

Dry air to the north still remains upshear of the storm. While this recent pulse is the most impressive we've seen, Idalia hasn't done much to moisten the environment ahead of it, as such this dry air will continue be pushed into and entrained within the circulation. Unlikely that this current convection over the center will maintain itself long enough to facilitate substantial organization before dry air eats away at it a bit.

No recent microwave data to confirm this, but IR satellite seems to indicate that Franklin may be about to clear out its eye. CBs have been making full rotations around the eyewall in recent hours. Perhaps the eastern eyewall disruption has been alleviated

TD-6 has been upgraded to Gert...unfortunately. Needless to say I don't think this one's going to put up a lot of ACE Tropical Storm Gert Special Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 1200 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023 Recent satellite wind-derived data indicated that winds in the northeast quadrant were a little over 35 kt. Conventional enhanced infrared imagery showed cooling cloud tops of -85 Celsius in the same region of the cyclone. Accordingly, the depression is upgraded to a tropical storm on this Special Advisory. No changes to the forecast track and intensity philosophy are required. Since the environment is still expected to be hostile with very strong westerly shear during the next day or so, Gert should degenerate into a remnant low later today, and dissipate by Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0400Z 16.7N 55.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 16.8N 57.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

One final note I would like to add is that I was an economics major in undergrad. When I was interning under Ryan in early 2020 as a senior in college, I became aware of the vast interdisciplinary opportunities for atmospheric scientists in the private sector. Until that point I had been toying with the idea of pivoting into the field, but had several concerns. Learning about those opportunities solidified my desire to commit to Atmospheric Science and attend graduate school. Now I've been able to leverage both degrees to begin work in a niche at the interface of both economics and meteorology that I had no idea existed a few years ago. Long story short, the field is much bigger than it appears at first. While at face value it may seem like your options are 1)TV, 2)Academia, and 3)NOAA/NWS, the value of meteorologists to almost ANY sector is very real. These sectors are hiring more Mets every year, take a look at how Citadel has dramatically increased their Met team in recent decades. As the risk exposure for companies to weather only grows in the future, demand will continue to rise. To anyone still in school who is interested in Meteorology but is either enrolled in a different field, feels like it is too late to pivot, is intimidated by the math, or concerned about a perceived lack of career opportunities, I would encourage you to give it a go. I almost didn't pursue because of those exact reasons and my ignorance was proven very wrong.

New red tag in the house! I first found this board in high school during the lead up to February 8th 2013. Little did I know that I was going to be exposed to a bevy of meteorological information (and banter) that helped to transform a hobby into a passion. As of last week, that passion has turned into a career. It was on these boards that I first learned where to view model data, was exposed to basic mesoscale and synoptic processes, and sifted through dozens of random acronyms describing how people think a storm will perform (though several of those still remain a mystery). During college I ended up reaching out to @CT Rain with questions about what it takes to become an Atmospheric Scientist. The subsequent mentorship he provided me with was absolutely critical in helping me become a graduate student in the field. I completed my M.S last week and will be heading down to NYC to work as a meteorologist in the private sector. While I rarely contribute on here, I owe a lot to this board. It was a critical part in my journey to becoming a meteorologist.

Some pretty remarkable Integrated Water Vapor Transport values associated with the modeling for our future system. Regardless of SLP track, the San Gabriels should get good drink. Primary concern would be mudslides if these depictions verify

Dora has completed its EWRC and has restrengthened into a Category 4 storm with winds of 145mph. Beautiful presentation on IR satellite right now

Don's structure has rebounded once again this AM

It does seem like these mid-latitude systems are able to develop coherent vortexes and organized convective bands/eye features more easily than say a developing wave/TS in the MDR. Probably likely that this is a function of the Coriolis parameter increasing with latitude. Perhaps the presence of more baroclinically unstable profiles at higher latitudes as Windspeed alluded, combined with increased ease of achieving vortex coherency allows for these donut storms to form. So many examples over recent years, some quite impressive

The pre-advisory ASCAT pass missing is a bit of a disappointment. Given the structure, a 60 mph designation seems reasonable. This is just personal conjecture so take it with a grain of salt, but its possible that the Dvorak technique may not do as well in resolving TC structures and intensity in marginal regions where convection is harder to come by.

Don's structure is likely peaking right now. These mid-latitude TCs always seem to be able to pull little surprises if they can detach from westerly flow and meander over marginal waters

Two Hurricanes, two eyes in the EPAC 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 301500 TCDEP2 Hurricane Beatriz Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Recent GOES 1-minute visible and infrared satellite imagery show that an eye is forming. A special classification from TAFB yielded an estimate of T4.0/65 kt, and raw UW-CIMSS ADT values are also up to 4.0. Therefore, Beatriz has been upgraded to a hurricane with maximum winds estimated to be 65 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane plane is scheduled to investigate the storm in a few hours, hopefully providing a refinement in the estimated intensity. Beatriz's initial motion remains northwestward, or 305/11 kt. The storm is expected to continue moving northwestward during the next 48 hours as it moves along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge located over the southern United States and northern Mexico. However, as is often the case with cyclones paralleling the west coast of Mexico, there is significant uncertainty as to whether Beatriz's center will continue to skirt the coast or move inland at some point. The NHC track forecast continues to show a scenario where Beatriz grazes the coast during the next 24-36 hours, but models such as the ECMWF and UKMET do bring the system inland and show dissipation. If Beatriz survives the next 48 hours, it would then likely slow down and turn toward the west-northwest as a mid-level ridge builds over the southwestern U.S. If Beatriz's center remains offshore, environmental conditions should otherwise be conducive for additional strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, and the storm is forecast to remain a hurricane until after it passes Cabo Corrientes. On the other hand, if the center reaches land, the mountainous terrain of Mexico would likely cause rapid weakening. Assuming survival during the next 36 hours, increasing shear out of the east-northeast, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a drier, more subsident environment would likely lead to gradual weakening on days 2 and 3. Based on the latest global model guidance, Beatriz is likely to have degenerated into a remnant low by day 4 and dissipate by day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Beatriz is forecast to continue strengthening and remain a hurricane through Saturday, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or so. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in those areas later today and on Saturday. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern Mexico from the state of Oaxaca westward to the state of Nayarit. These rains could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 17.3N 102.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 18.2N 103.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 19.4N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 20.4N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 21.3N 107.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 21.7N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 22.0N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 22.6N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Up to 70%/70% at 2pm EDT

Wardrobe was phenomenal today, took 2 runs down it. One of my favorite tree zones in the East, especially the final steep pitch. I love how the steep/tight pines in that area dump out into a shallow glade of hardwoods. Really allows you to pick up some speed and take aggressive lines without worrying about losing control because it opens up just in time.

30" reported at Magic, and it certainly skied like it! Note the pole for depth (with some slantsticking). The mountain sold out so most runs got quickly tracked up, but the trees were incredibly deep and untouched all morning. Unfortunately, around noon high winds took down a tree which cut the power source to the mountain so they had to shut down. They are giving out a free day voucher to everyone who bought a ticket, shout out Magic for the great customer service and working so quickly to amend an unfortunate situation!

Dumping S++ in Albany. The band to our west is finally pivoting in!

How is the density?

Downsloping masterclass since 8am in Albany. Heavy echos overhead completely drying up. Only a few stray flakes making it down. Need this easterly flow to switch

Inverted trough bringing the goods right now, but the main show for E-Mass tomorrow is taking shape offshore.

Fully flipped snow in Downtown Albany now. A nice band has been sitting over this area for a while and helped it flip over a bit ahead of schedule in the Capital Region. No accumulation yet. 32*f wet-bulb contour suggests that accumulating snows are not far away: https://operations.nysmesonet.org/~nbassill/loop/index.php?map=WINTER