Boston Bulldog

I would caution against getting excited about the long range deterministic models showing some “winter-like” storm activity. Ensembles are still very hostile with the ridging through mid month, maybe we can squeeze out a cool shot in about 10 days on the backside of the troughing anomaly over the Maritimes. I would watch for some cutters after mid month with hints of a -PNA showing up. Honestly that’s progress toward a cool season pattern, considering where we are starting this month.

Organization is there, convection remains quite shallow. I think they could have upgraded at 5pm, but NHC might be looking for more robust convection before doing so.

Really a pretty awful look for the next few weeks for colder temps. Yuck

Hard to tell with lack of quality radar, but looks like a direct strike on Grand Turk

Current motion seems likely to have the tiny core miss Providenciales, which is fortunate. Grand Turk may not be so lucky

Latest dropsonde shows Oscar on the cusp of category 2. No word on if this is rain affected yet, but Hazelton is giving credence to this result NHC needs to upgrade to hurricane and issue hurricane warnings immediately. It would be negligence if they don’t

3nm diameter for the eye… take that Milton! NHC special update: 70mph, 991mb

Several VHTs rotating around the tiny core on IR sat… wild turn of events this morning

Really makes you wonder what recon would have gotten if they flew into Eta at it's peak. Somehow T numbers were higher than Milton's for a brief period there

Code Red, might be time to fire up a thread on this. Nasty looking PRE setup. Regardless of how strong this system gets, this is a really concerning situation for an already flooded FL Gulf Coast. Good to see the NHC starting to push out some messaging for coastal residents to prepare.

NHC agrees, but take the under on daybreak! Kirk has already arrived as a MH!

Kirk going beast mode now

Isaac just popped an eye. Hurricane at 5am most likely. These mid-latitude systems always have great structure

Eyewall is starting to look “bumpy” on radar. Plenty of mesovorts starting to emerge, Helene is really tightening up the core now

Notable improvement on IR. As a whole the core looks a lot more robust and less hollowed out than just a few hours ago…

While John has dissipated, the rain has not. Very bad situation unfolding in Oaxaca and Guerrero states, regardless if Zombie John re-emerges like the NHC says it has a 50% chance of doing

Data will often be noisy in a chaotic environment. This is why many different measurements are needed for official statistics. I would recommend saving yourself from eye strain from obsessing over each datapoint, and look at overall trends in pressure

Man this thing is a behemoth, look at that gigantic outer band draped over Jamaica. These CAG storms can bring quite the vorticity payload as they head north. Major rossby wave perturbations likely downstream as Helene rots in the mid-latitudes. I haven’t looked, but this would likely be a “reshuffle the deck” situation for the extratropical circulation across the N-ATL and Europe

Giving any serious consideration to Hurricane models before a center of circulation has formed is totally foolish. HAFS at 12z had this thing already vertically stacked by this time

That’s the eye

Fascinating and dynamic satellite view of the Western Gulf tonight. Look at that circulation around 27N start to accelerate south and get pulled closer to the wave axis

Powerful ET transitions are rare on radar and wow what a slug of moisture heading for the Avalon Peninsula. Interesting to see all the frontal features becoming more dominant in real time. Big time fronto-band fueled by deep tropical moisture heading for St John's. That's gonna pack a punch.

Quite the burst of convection that managed to rotate upshear and around the center. I would expect another burst on the eastern side of the center soon. You can see dry air getting ingested to the south via the northwesterly shear - it is trying to rotate into the center around 69W 22N. The inner structure of the core is a bit of a mystery right now due to the lack of new microwave passes, let's see if Ernesto can wall off the dry air

ACE is 304% of the mean to date. Take a deep breath. Current intensity is basically directly in line with forecasts from yesterday morning. Not every storm rapidly intensifies into a CAT-4 in 24 hours once reaching a “favorable” environment - not to mention there is dry air nearby as forecasted. Lots of fluff and emotional reactions today in this thread. Let’s figure it out people

Ernesto is absolutely flying West and needs to get out of this rapid easterly flow before it can organize quickly. Once it begins to lift north and exit the zonal flow, Ernesto should start taking advantage of its environment and anomalously warm waters and begin intensifying. SHIPS indices show a 46% chance of RI around hour 72 which gives additional credence to the near unaminous deepening we see from model outputs over the Sargasso Sea. Do I think 72 hours out is a bit out of the range for the SHIPS? Sure, especially since statistical models like it are not based in NWP methods, but they are a good indicator of what the environment may look like at that time. Seen a lot of Fiona thrown around here, idk I'm getting Gonzalo (2014) vibes from this. Perhaps a bit farther west than Gonzalo through the islands.