aggiegeog

Late week is getting very interesting for inland Gulf Coast region. Significant icing is possible on elevated surfaces.

Some chance of winter weather Thursday and a much better chance for a wideapread event Saturday.

Looks like some snow showers Saturday afternoon and evening for areas east of I-35 and north of I-20 as the upper low passes overhead. Very limited moisture so amounts will be in the dusting to 2 inch range.

Strong and growing signal for Arctic air during the last 1/3 of Jan.

WWA for East Texas. Minor sleet accumulation around Nacogdoches with temps around freezing. Light snow around Kilgore with temps in mid 20s. Band of flurries moving in here, NW Smith County, with temps in the low 20s. The wave is creating the best lift where temps are borderline so with recent warmth I doubt there are any significant roadway issues. Around here with low 20s any precip should stick regardless of prior temps.

I expect the Arctic front to arrive in North Texas by midday Saturday. It will bring with it strong storms and crashing temperatures. Sunday morning will be in the 20s with snow showers possible. Highs Sunday will likely be in the mid 30s at best for North Texas.

Big changes coming this weekend. A non zero chance for snow north of I-20.

Finally the big shift is near. Looks like the initial push of cold will come this weekend.

Loma Linda (southern Taos County, NM south of Sipapu Ski at 9,000ft) got over 13". It's been a good March there with over 2 feet so far.

Some good spring snow still up here in the northern NM mountains south of Taos. 44f and flurries right now. Days have been in the 50s with lows around 20 lately. A good snow is on tap for the weekend, but sadly we will have to head home before then as I start a new job Monday.

Up to close to 2" snow in past 1.5 hours, plus 0.5" sleet this morning, plus 8.5" snow Sunday night. That makes 11" total with another inch or so to come from this current band.

Been snowing moderately for at least 30 minutes. I am hoping it stays as snow.

Barely anything since early morning in Hideaway. Back edge has ease ever so slowly east. The Central Texas batch may get us. Not sure on precip type with that but I assume sleet.

I am like you looking at this for the first time since Sunday. I have people asking what to expect and I have no idea as of now. Sure hoping the southern solution is correct to put me in the snow zone solidly.

12km NAM is great for East Texas.

From reports I'm seeing it is sleeting and covering everything across DFW. And freezing rain in BCS and likely extending into W Houston. I don't expect any precip in Tyler until closer to sunrise though radar returns are popping up all over eastern Texas within the past hour.

The surface is still pretty dry for N TX so doubt much of that batch makes it to the surface though it should help with top down moistening of the lower atmosphere.

Another evening where we are below the forecasted low before midnight 22 now vs NWS forecast of 24. I be we get down into the upper teens or right at 20 as the precip moves in later tonight. The surface is not near as dry in E TX vs N TX with DPs in the upper 10s to 20s as you move SE. Temps and DPs in NW East Texas are lower than even the latest HRRR by 3 degrees and in SE East Texas temps and DPs are running a touch above the latest HRRR.

I see that basically the whole state is covered in either a winter storm warning or watch.

Reviewing models for both storms I say worst case DFW sees 0.5" QPF, meaning say 0.1" QPF as mix being 0.25" accumulation and 0.4" as snow at 10:1 being 4" accumulation. Most likely it is closer to 1" QPF with all as snow and at 14:1 ratio meaning 10 to 14" of snow. And of course even higher is possible. So say a range of 4 to 24". Tyler could see 1.5 to 2" QPF but could lose 1/3 to mix and ratios more like 12:1. So 1 to 2" of ice and sleet along with 12 to 18" or snow. Worst case being 1" QPF and half lost to sleet being 1 to 2" sleet and 5" snow. Best case 2.5" QPF with 90% snow at 14:1 being 0.5 to 1" sleet and 30 to 36" snow. So say a range of 6 to 36".

Worst case for DFW is 4-7" with 8-14" most likely and 20"+ possible.

I just got my email from Ambit regarding the need to cut back on electrical use.

18Z GEFS snowdepth mean for Thursday morning is over 6" basically north of a Lubbock to Austin to Shreveport line. Over 12" north of a Amarillo to Waco to Texarkana line. Maxing at 17" around Sulphur Springs and Paris. Keep in mind this is the mean. Several members around 36" 10:1 in N and NE TX.

Over 1" QPF for N TX and over 2" QPF for NE TX. Some members around 3 feet of snow at 10:1 in NE TX.

GEFS is absolutely nuts. If correct it would shatter snowfall records for North and Northeast Texas.