aggiegeog

Upper 20s and thunder freezing rain in Lindale.

We are dealing with ripples in the jet coming through Mexico. We have no upper air data for the models to initialize on down there. I would still bet on Pacific moisture producing though there be winner and losers as always.

Rdps has been my go to for many years for winter storms. Its the hi Res Canadian.

Tyler still has not rose above 32 today. Fell to 32 around midnight and won't likely reach 33 until Wed maybe even Thu. All of that while now under a Flood Watch in addition to the winter storm warning. Not sure I have seen that combo before.

Its bad out there this morning. Elevated surfaces are ice covered across much of the state. Freeze line from Austin to College Station to south of Tyler to Texarkana. This is significantly further south than even the cold models had. SHV likely needs to add a tier of advisories another row of counties south of the warnings.

Yep, though I am still on the bandwagon of Thursday being more of a snow event. If that upper low stays closed than I am hopeful that we can end this mess with a couple inches of snow.

For Tyler area the NAM has us bullseyed. HRRR is all rain here. NAM is typically too dry but solid on temps.

Qpf of 1 to 2 inches is plenty to cause huge ice problems with temps in upper 20s as it appears DFW will see.

This is starting to spark memories of 12/2013. Not good at all.

DFW and points west looking like a skating rink most of this week. NE TX is more borderline given the Ouachita Mountain shadow but I think they will also join the party by Monday night and especially late Tuesday into Wednesday. Some snow possible Thu if surface stays in mid 30s.

Some north of I-20 will see heavy snow today. Most likely near Red River East West of I35. Flurries down to I-20 east of I35, West of I35 snow could fall south of I35.

I love when we get powder, its so rare down here.

Snow showers and freezing drizzle are verifying across North Texas this morning.

Front is stretches from near Tulsa through OKC down to near Wichita Falls and to south of Lubbock. Temps in 30s and 40s ahead of front quickly falling into teens and single digits behind with snow showers.

The long awaited front is marching down the Plains today. This afternoon the front has led to 25 degree 5 minute drops and 40 degree 30 minute drops. Higher res models are highlighting a chance for freezing drizzle in the cold air tomorrow.

The Christmas Eve snow is showing a bit on the GFS. It is reliant on the vort max staying over NTX where there is some moisture. If the vort stays south then there doesn't appear to be any moisture for it to tap into. Likely just flurries but these kind of systems in Arctic air can surprise.

Could be a good rain even tomorrow for Deep East and Southeast Texas tomorrow with a band of 2-3 inches likely. The front Thursday still looks amazing with a very sudden plunge in temperatures from 40s and 50s to 10s and 20s, winds gusting over 40mph and maybe a burst of snow especially as the front moves east. Could be some brief periods of limited visibility. Friday will start with wind chills below 0 for a huge portion of the state. Amazing to have forecasted temps in the single digits with winds over 20mph in this part of the state. Thankfully Christmas weekend looks nice though cold. Maybe a few mood flurries if the shortwave can find any moisture.

Sleet mixing with rain this afternoon across East Texas. Signal for Arctic air next week is very strong and there is a growing signal for a couple shots at snow late next week through early the following week.

Models all still look too fast in upper levels for a lot of fun for now but I would keep eyes on Friday night for a small event, Monday could be something if temps trend down a few degrees and I still would watch the big late week front to see if it finds moisture. The big front will very likely come in faster and stronger than modeled. Post frontal temps Thu could be in the 20s with wind chill around 10. Around here this morning it is in the upper to 20s to mid 30s

I lean more towards 83, this will last longer than 21 just based on time of year. Late December has lowest sun angle of year. Below 0 around here happens so rarely so I do doubt we reach those levels but with good snow cover I can def see multiple nights below 10 with maybe isolated sub 0. That Arctic blocking is insane.

Agreed, and considering models are always too far north with Arctic boundaries at low latitudes then south trends can be expected in the storm track.

Everything is on the table for a memorable second half of December with many days of subfreezing highs and several snow chances. Upper level forecasts look insane while models have yet to resolve surface weather. One of the best analogs for this pattern is 2/21 as well as 12/83, for sure two of the most severe Arctic outbreaks but it's on the table.

We turn wet and cold for the second half of this month. Plenty of highs in 40s and 50s with a chance or two for frozen precip likely mixed in.

Temps this morning are in the mid 20s to mid 30s across East Texas. Looks like the freeze warning could have been expanded one more row. Hope all were prepared for the cold this morning. A rapid warmup after today in the mid to upper 80s by Friday and this weekend.

Looks like a freeze is possible for non urban areas of North and Northeast Texas Wed morning.