aggiegeog

The upper low path is pretty locked in and has been for days. It will dig into N MX tomorrow before kicking out along the MX/US border. As it kicks out a low will form around Brownsville, TX and travel up the coast. This is a pattern that happens every winter and they rarely go north of models. If anything they tend to be suppressed by the Arctic high pressures over the top of them. Y'all could get some snow out of this as the SW trough merges into the Polar jet. The heavy stuff is related to the Gulf low though.

I think models are way overdoing the freezing rain threat. yes there will be some but I do not anticipate a big area of freezing rain. a few spots in the Hill Country and Deep East Texas may be the exception to that. For the most part I think this is a rain/sleet/snow event, I do not buy into the major WAA that some models are trying to show.

Temp wise this is not a particularly cold event. Highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens happens every year. And that cold is just in N TX the rest of the state will have highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. A big part of the 2021 failure was freezing rain affecting wind farms and I don't see that being a big issue across areas where the wind farms are located.

We are now within range of the higher res models so we should start to get a better idea on the details of this event. They are showing less WAA and light precip during the day Wed ahead of the main event. They will soon be in range to see the main event.

I think DFW is is safely in the cold sector and should stay all snow. Maybe isolated outages where heavy snow brings down weak limbs. Now south of a Waco to Longview line could see substantial icing and have power issues.

Why? Historically N and NE TX get huge snows from these type set ups. SW trough and coastal surface low with cold air in place equals 6-12" for I-20. OK and AR may get in on this one more than in a typical coastal low event as there is an additional lobe of energy on the NW side of this one. This is similar if a bit colder version of 2/2010.

It almost always takes longer than expected to warm up after a big snow. I agree that Sat morning will be in the teens for many. Outside of DFW some may push single digits. There is a little wave on Sat that could drop a bit more freezing precip. Then another storm next week that has snow potential. This is not a one storm event.

Becoming increasingly likely that this is an all time type event for DFW. Definitely a top 10 event for them and maybe a top 3. Those caught in convective bands could see over a foot.

Things look really good for DFW as far as snow. For the Austin to Tyler corridor, things are murkier with temps in question. I still lean towards a minimal warm nose so thinking mainly snow or rain. Still watching for if there is a warm nose for the first part of the storm in that corridor. As the upper trough nears the cold pool aloft should transition things to purely rain or snow.

After a few runs trending away from a phase most models are back to phasing. Its the difference in a cold light rain and a big statewide winter storm.

The morning models have the SW trough missing the PV phase. If that happens next week's snow would not happen as the cold will leave before any moisture arrives.

What's nice about this pattern is we are in a pattern which will supply continued shots of cold and snow into Feb. Some serious cold will be seen with this as we build a solid snow pack all the way down the Plains.

NWS office are now inserting snow into days 6/7. For now they are keeping it south of I-20 where the better moisture will be.

GFS is the most consistent with next week's storm and it is consistently showing a near ideal set up for a nearly statewide significant snow event.

Next week is a beautiful pattern for snow across TX. On edge of an Arctic air mass which sends down waves of cold while still allowing for shortwaves to pass overhead. While this is ongoing a trough digs into the SW USA allowing us to tap into Pacific moisture on top of the Gulf moisture that will be pulled up by surface lows.

Temps as low as 27 in East Texas this morning with a frost for the whole region.

Smokehouse Creek Fire is now over 1M acres. The largest fire in Texas history surpassing the East Amarillo Complex Fire which burned 900k acres.

The fire situation NE of Amarillo is horrible. The main complex consisting of Windy Deuce Fire, near Lake Meredith, and Smokehouse Creek Fire, started near Stinnett and now crossing into Oklahoma, has officially burned over 500k acres. If you measure the the perimeter of hot spots this morning from this complex you get something closer to 1.5m acres. There are other large fires scattered around the Panhandle also.

That early March 2014 In Tyler featured a night of heavy thundersleet followed by a day with highs around 20 and lake effect flurries.

The freezing line is pushing SE it's down along Hwy 80 into Wood County then up towards Texarkana.

Would t be surprised to see a WWA for NW half of N TX and possibly expanded a bit SE from there.

Temps in NE TX range from 6 to 15 this morning and shaded spots are still very slick.

Looks like Tyler ended up down to 13F this morning. My house got down to 11F in Lindale. Tyler is going to end up with 54 hours at 20 or below and by tomorrow Tyler will be around 95 hours below freezing.

NWS with the huge adjustment to afternoon temps here from 25 to 17F. We are going to go over 50 hours consecutive without temps >20F. Today will set the low max for the date which was 33, temp reached 19 early this morning before falling into mid teens for the afternoon. Today will be just the 4th Jan day ever on record in Tyler with a sub 20 high. Tomorrow has a good chance for the record low of 15 with a forecast of 12. Tomorrow has a shot at the record low max of 26 with forecast of 26. If the next front has can take better aim straight down the Plains the Sat record low max of 27 is reachable.

We are now at over 24 hours of continuous light snow. Only 1/4 to 1/2 inch accumulations so far here though. Did just have a heavier burst. The snow is falling from below the radar beam over here in our semi radar hole between FTW and SHV.