aggiegeog

Yep, this kind of cold is very dense and it just flows south even with minimal upper air support. This system will also extend the snow pack into the Central and maybe Southern Plains. Also, plenty of cold air will remain in western Canada for subsequent fronts to tap into. There appears to be a chain of fronts through at least mid month and likely into January.

Many model runs to go so we will see, but it looks like a pretty dry system. Maybe we can get us a little NW flow kink to bring some snow showers within the Arctic air mass.

It sounds like some of the Euro ensembles have a winter storm with the front. If we get snow or ice then the first single digit code in a very long time is possible. Red River counties could flirt with 0. Man I am getting excited.

Next week looks like it will be a McFarland event with a Rio Grande Valley freeze. Interestingly it will be -WPO (Bering Sea ridge)driven unlike most others which are -EPO driven (ridge over GoA and into AK). North of I-20 highs could be sub freezing with lows in the teens for a day for a day or two.

18Z GFS continues idea of light snow at least along the Red River Wednesday morning right behind the front. By Thursday it has a 1041mb high over N TX. With these two things I think it is underdoing the lows Thu and Fri as it shows mid to upper 20s with DPs in the teens with a very light wind going calm.

That would not be surprising. The GFS is way too progressive with this system while the Euro is slower but colder. It is very cold in Canada so the GFS idea of only getting as cold as we were this morning without the support of a very cold Arctic seems unreasonable. Thursday morning looks to be very cold (single digit and teens windchills) as there will likely still be some wind, Friday morning will likely see the coldest air temperatures (I expect rural areas to make a run at the teens). These temperatures could be moderated if we end up with any shortwaves in the cold air, but we will happily trade a hard freeze for snow.

It looks to me like the 12Z GFS shows flurries behind the front Wed morning. Even if this is not exactly the solution still being almost a week out the idea is on the table for at least some kind of pulse or maybe multiple NW flow pulses within the Arctic air mass. These are almost impossible to nail down until right before they come through though in the past we have had some good snow out of these with little warning.

Another freeze here with 30 at my house and 28-32 in surrounding areas. Looks like E TX is in for a 2-6" rain event this weekend. Next week's front looks to come in sometime between Wed morning and Thu morning with storms out ahead of it. Temps will fall from the 60s ahead of the front into the 30s and 40s for daytime highs late next week with lows in the 20s. We will watch to see if there are any small systems behind the front that could squeeze out some precip in the cold air. This looks to be the first in a series of Arctic fronts as Western Canada stays much below average temperature wise and this will be released anytime the NE Pacific ridge noses up towards AK. Also this weekend's storm looks to bring heavy snow to the mountains of southern NM and some snow to most of NM and the panhandles of TX/OK.

All major models show similar. With a solid snow pack up north from Mongolia to I-40 and that kind of air above us we should be looking at the coldest air since 2014. GFS has near 0 dew points on the 9th.

Looks like the Panhandle has a shot at heavy snow on Saturday depending slight shifts. Canadian is heaviest with near a foot while GFS is slightly warmer and south so just a few inches on it. The NAM and other shorter range models will begin coming into play over the next few days to nail it down better.

42 would be awesome, hopefully we can get a streak of 2 or 3 days below freezing which likely would be the result of snow on the ground. This is possible for the initial cold blast but more likely somewhere around 12/18ish.

Great analysis, for this year my bet would be on a mean around 45 as we have a warm background state with lots of polar blocking and a very cold source region.

The key to any lasting cold is the pesky GoA low. If we can get rid of that everything else is in place for cold. Until then we look to have roller coaster temps of highs around 70 for a few days then highs around 40 for a few days and back. Thankfully it looks like we will have consistent precip events and one is bound to time out right for winter weather.

That seems almost certain at lease since March '14. A ~1050mb high over the Plains will be very nice with a cold W Canada. NW of where the surface low tracks will see some heavy wintery precip it looks. Hopefully the low trends south as is typical at this range.

Yea, for now I am tossing the recent GFS runs out. -40F air over NW Canada doesn't just fade away especially not with a -EPO look.

December is sure looking like 83 in general. The extremes of the heart of that outbreak will be hard to ever replicate though. A 580+ dm 500mb ridge will into Alaska is something we will be lucky to ever see especially coupled with a cold background state.

I have been telling people to not sleep on the potential for snow this weekend. It is not likely, but these type systems that dive into Mexico this time of year tend to surprise. And if it does come through at night then our chances are even better. I will continue to watch it. This will be followed by true Arctic air a few days later and we will watch to see if we can get a shortwave in the cold air.

I got about 2" of rain from this system and the NM mountains got 3-6" of snow out of it. The pattern the models are showing with blocking over the top and low heights over the SW should result in a snowy December for the SW and frequent precip in the Southern Plains with cold coming later in the month for the S Plains as a -EPO develops.

Saw that. If the surface high can strengthen a bit more than shown on this run I will have more faith in it, but awesome to look at modeled snow.

Looks like the first real snow for the NM mountains just in time for some powder for TWeek skiing. This looks to bring the first decent rain in a long time to E TX tomorrow. The post TDay storm looks to bring the first real storms of the Fall followed by chilly air. Then our first winter weather threat of the season comes in early December with -EPO, -NAO and severe -AO.

I had tons of lightning at my house this morning. The front looks to be moving into Tyler now so the rain is about to be over here and temps will fall to around 60. Signs are clearly pointing towards a cold December. If the EPO stays close to neutral I expect cool to cold with regular storms coming across our region. If the EPO dives then I expect bitter cold, but less storminess. I'll happily take either.

Just curious why do you say that? At least for December, it looks cold with lots of blocking over the top setting up a parade of southern stream cold storms. Very cold air is possible if we can get a NE Pac ridge.

It does appear that there could be enough instability for a few storms of some intensity late today.

Today will be very windy across NM and W TX with winds gusting to near 60 mph and even higher in the mountains. This system looks to come through dry out there outside of high elevation snow showers above the resorts. The front will move into N and E TX tonight bringing showers followed by falling temps through the day tomorrow. Temps could fall into the low 50s by tomorrow evening. The weekend looks cool with highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Saturday morning will likely be in the 37-45 range (the less wind the colder it will get). Sunday morning will likely feature widespread frost with some spots below freezing.

The first shot of solid chilly air will be here this weekend with frost possible in rural areas. This week looks pretty warm though until Friday or so when the front flips us to chilly air and a brisk N wind. I really hope we get some rain though eventually, the SE ridge is nosing a bit too far west for my liking.