aggiegeog

My rain gauge says 7" at my place in Hideaway. BTW so much for warmth today high in the 50s with clouds finally just breaking up now.

Looking like we are in for a major Polar Vortex disruption. It has been a while since we have had a solid long term -AO. As long as we can get a -EPO which has been at least transient lately we will get some cold and the newly active STJ has me getting excited for February.

Maybe the weekend storm can ease a bit south and find another 10-15 degrees of cooling. We can hope at least. I'll take my chances with a sub 540 closed low in the heart of winter.

We received about 2.5" of rain at my house last night.

Front has pretty much stalled over me. Mid 60s on the south side of town and mid 50s on north side. I am at 60. My town is only 5,000 people.

On Sat. Angel Fire started at -35 and by noon it reached 0 and 37 by late afternoon. Those high valleys sure can have some wild swings in temps when winds die off and skies clear. Today's low was near 40 with south winds and cloudy drizzly skies.

This weekend's storm is an odd set up, but all models are very consistent with it. I will be interested in if models trend to a more typical solution. It is just such a large gradient in temps for it to just sit almost stationary. If it does that is gonna be why we get such extreme rainfall. On another note, check out the rise in temps over the Panhandle since the weekend, up to a 90 degree difference between now and Saturday morning. And they will be back in the snow this weekend.

13 and 15 the last two mornings. Pretty good consistency between the major models on an ice storm from N TX to the Great Lakes. This watch the surface high up north because there is some very cold air to be trapped in the Siberia. Remember that before this outbreak turned out so cold it was the next one that had been the one that we expected extreme cold from.

Angel Fire can get incredibly cold, one of the coldest places in the lower levels 48 often. It's good to see the snow pack really start to build.

Already down to 17 here before midnight with clear skies and a 10 dp. Wind is 10mph though but it out of the N so while not ideal radiationally it will continue cold air advection and promote lowering dps. Record low in Tyler is the 15 for the 6th which won't be missed by much and 13 for the 7th. Not sure Tyler can make 13 but a close call is possible. So much for the low 20s forecast from earlier today. Update: 14/11 early this morning

Snow! Or at least flurries in the Lindale.

It looks like it will make it at least to areas north of I-20 though hoping it makes it to Tyler. I am considering heading home early to Hideaway so i am on the N side of I-20.

I think we had some around here with the early March 2014 storm the morning after we had a few inches of sleet it was in the teens with flurries and breezy winds. We don't have as big of lakes around here as DFW does though.

I can buy the lake effect idea with NE winds off of the lakes and temps in the low 20s. Lake effect snow is not as rare as you would think when temps get this low with wind blowing decently around here.

MPING map is lighting up over DFW with snow reports.

The northern NM mountains are looking at a couple feet at resort level through tomorrow and the peaks could see well over 3 feet.

That's what I am hoping for, because ratios look good with a saturated sub 500mb dendritic growth zone. The I-30 corridor could do well if adequate moisture at the low levels makes it in. The Gulf low looks to cut off the moisture though.

We are looking at three winter precip areas tomorrow in Texas. First one is trending north towards the I40 in OK and the Panhandle. It looks to produce around 6" in the Panhandle and a couple inches as you move into eastern OK. This could still trend back south towards the Red River, but I don't see much of this falling in N TX. This event is mainly early tomorrow. Second area falls tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. It looks to spread flurries to a dusting over N and E TX. Areas along I-30 in the NE TX could see up to a couple inches though as there is more moisture there. The third area is associated to the Gulf low which may throw some moisture into sub freezing air in inland SE TX in the form of sleet and maybe freezing rain late tomorrow.

Features (surface high and low, 700mb vort, 500mb trough, etc) are trending just a bit stronger for Friday on the GFS. I think the overall idea of flurries over N TX trending to a dusting to an inch further east along I-20 on Friday is solid. Along with the early Friday 1-3" along and north of the Red River.

Yep, with the whole column subfreezing it wont take much for a dusting to an inch in N TX. Hoping that the Euro begins to trend to the other models, but I think that areas E of I-35 generally near I-20 will at least get some snow between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning.

Agreed Agreed, this looks to be an I-20 storm focused east of DFW all the way to NC. Temps will be cold enough that we should be able to make the most out of anything that does fall. The nighttime timing should also help.

I am liking this set-up for NE TX. Like always its a close call, but usually we do OK with developing Gulf lows. I have a feeling DFW may be too far west for much accum though with the cold air throughout the column there may be enough for and inch or two there. North of I-20 in NE TX I could see 1-3" with maybe a 4 or 5" amount in a sweet spot (best current guess would be around Marshall for that).

Never know I guess with Mexico but seems unlikely with ridging along the west coast of Mexico.

GFS now coming back on board also. Not seeing any signs of a huge event, but there is a good shot for those north of I-20 to see 2-4". The cold is coming with storminess behind it, that is a very good snow signal though without a STJ connection it is doubtful that we see anything heavy.

Looks like the line of storms has verified and is asking for I-35 right now. The late week winter storm appears to be coming back on the models as expected.