aggiegeog

After today our weather looks pretty mild for a while. Time to watch the snowpack and cold air build in NW North America.

I much prefer cold in place and hope for precip than the opposite during winter. The -EPO could be the dominant factor again this winter so as long as the PNA is not too high we are in a good spot. With not much of a STJ to tap into our snow will likely come from NW flow which is hard to predict.

Along with the blustery chill in the air, models are still moving the line of light showers currently near Abilene across the state north of I-20 producing very light rain possibly mixing with a few sleet pellets. This happens often post front during the winter but is very rare in October.

Our front is into the Panhandle now, though the temperature change is very gradual with 50s still even as far north as Kansas. Expect a few showers with the front, more the further SE you are. For N and E TX expect the front tomorrow morning (before daybreak likely in N TX) so temps will likely be steady near 50 with cloudy skies and gusty north winds along with light drizzle possible in the afternoon. If forcing is stronger than expected maybe someone will see a sleet pellet or two. Saturday morning will feature a frost for many and a possible freeze if skies clear. The weekend looks nice although a bit chilly. Sunday morning could bring a freeze to NE TX. Halloween looks to be chilly and wet.

The Gulf of Alaska is set up for a cool to cold November. Hopefully that is the pattern for the whole winter season.

We are still on track for an Arctic intrusion on Friday with temps steady in the 50s, would not be a shock if temps were even cooler though. Saturady looks like 50s for highs and Sunday morning will likely be the coldest with a decent chance at a frost for many, if we get good radiational cooling maybe a freeze in spots.

I like what I am seeing in regards to a possible Arctic (October version at least) outbreak next weekend. Looks like the typhoon remnants will pump up the GoA ridge which could bring many their first frost, maybe snow down to I-40. Still have to watch to make sure the West Coast ridge stays off of the Cali coast or we risk the cold sliding east.

My family's place (around 9k feet near on Highway 518) sees snow fall most years from mid to late Oct through mid May with snow on the ground consistently most years from TDay through mid April. February through mid March are peak with snow depths generally >3 feet and sometimes much deeper. Above 10,500 feet snow holds on though mid June usually. I have learned to quit trying to hike until July up high.

I was hoping to make it up this fall but it never worked out. My grandparents were up at our place around that time and they reported days around 45 with lots of rain, very unusual for October. I expected that the peaks were being dumped on. I expect the NE quarter of NM to be pretty interesting this winter from developing Panhandle lows forming on the typical strong La Nina fronts. Not sure the rest of NM will see much as the eastern Pacific is very cool so not many SW cutoffs. i bet we will see the return of some significant dust storms this winter after things dry out from a wet fall.

Keeping an eye out for a possible, if unlikely, 1993 late October setup. Anyone up for some October snowflakes and freezing temps?

It sure has been dry. At least I got nearly an inch last week though none from Harvey. The cool weather is very nice though, I could see mid 40s tonight.

East of I-35 will have typical late summer weather, though a small cool down for the weekend. West of I-35 looks very wet and cool. This system should produce some decent snow on the high peaks in NM and Southern CO. Only about 6 weeks until ski season in NM.

It has been a pretty dry summer except for a could very wet periods around here. My grass is starting to die so I am having to break down and water it. It is good to see snow in the forecast for the NM peaks this weekend. They should get a few inches before it all melts off with the western ridging next week.

Wow, Harvey looks like it is starting to bomb. These are going to the a very rough few days for South and Southeast Texas.

Keep an eye on that broad rotation moving towards Brownsborro and eventually towards Lake Palestine.

Possible tornado near Canton moving east.

Did not expect to see a severe ts watch today, but storms are robust.

Canton is in the middle of some very rough weather right now possible tornadoes to the NW and SE. This is First Monday weekend so there are a bunch of additional people in town likely. Still not much here but we have all evening to go and the storms are not far off along with watching new developments.

There is a winter storm watch for NE NM where they are expecting 6"+ of snow and a foot is possible in the mountains the snow will pour over into the Panhandles Saturday night. Around here on Sunday highs will struggle to reach 60 especially if clouds hold on like they did last Saturday. Along with the chill will be heavy rain on Saturday for North and East Texas.

I made it to 45 yesterday and 44 today. Saturday barely touched 60 here before rains knocked it back down in the late afternoon. Looks like we are in for something similar this weekend maybe.

Northern NM mountains are very snowy right now with 1-2 feet from the last storm and the current storm will be in that range at the resorts. This is pretty typical for that area with temps warming well into the 40s and even 50s between storms.

Snow in West Texas yesterday and the consecutive freezing mornings here, not bad.

Surprise decent freeze for most of North and East Texas this morning. Many locales in mid 20s which is 5 to 10 degrees below the forecasted low from last night. A few warm spots as usual with traditional cooling and a couple spots in the low 20s.

This winter has yet to see any particular pattern set up for any period of time.

Eh, Euro has not been good this winter. GFS has been better at long range and Euro weeklies have just about polar opposite of reality at long range. NE Pacific ridging, building cold in NW NA, STJ active, and Canadian blocking are all present or expected over the next few weeks and winter in the past few years has shifted from mid-Nov through mid-Feb to now being more early Dec through early March. To compare to hurricane season we are still in August and the atmosphere is favorable generally, it's not like we have have a roaring jet into Canada. Edit to add: in the 17 days leading up to the March 2-3, 2014 extreme sleet storm which featured temps subfreezing highs and lows in the teens we were above average for 14 days with most days in the 70s during that time. One big event will quickly make us forget about warm periods during winter.