aggiegeog

31° here but note recent precip. Was in upper 30s this morning during the heaviest drizzle.

The freezing line has cleared DFW and it marching through NE TX and northern C TX. Light score band is moving through N TX, many will see a dusting. Maybe someone gets a tad more than that. Otherwise watch for icy bridges as freezing drizzle wings out the last remaining moisture in the air. The next few days will be very cold with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens for most with single digits for a few.

27 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

Being new to the area, I am not sure what I need to look for in the models as far as the weather patterns here.  I know that back East in NC we would want see low pressure exit TX into the gulf and then shift north east as it crossed Florida.  Our best snows in my part of the state came from that set up.  

For this far north in Texas the best snows come from upper lows coming out of Mexico. A Gulf low moving NE through Lousiana can get us some snow. Occasionally a NW flow shortwave moving into already estaoshed cold can give us a big surprise high ratio snow. 

2 hours ago, jhamps10 said:

The news here in dfw have been hinting at possible wintery mix for Sunday... I've been looking at model data and I'm not seeing it...David finfrock is a Texas weather legend so I give it some thought but I'm not seeing it as likely right now IMHO

Light freezing rain or drizzle seems fairly likely. Similar to West Texas the past couple days.

Looking like an extended and extreme outbreak starting Sunday and lasting through mid month. I could go almost a month without seeing 50 degrees in E TX.

We may be looking at sub 20 degree highs early next week almost guaranteed sub freezing highs for multiple days.

The NM mountains actually got some widespread albeit light snow.

Snow is more widespread than expected in the Lubbock vicinity this afternoon. Even some reported with the main batch north of DFW in Gainesville. Temps do seem to be running just a touch colder than modeled and maybe the mid levels levels also if Gainesville is getting snow.

6 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

Mainly just popping in to say hello.  Moved to Lewisville from an hour east of Raleigh NC in August so, I spent a lot of time in the SE forum.   Have been enjoying living here although so far the weather has been mostly two types: hot and dry and cold and dry.   Look forward to learning more about North TX weather.  

Happy to have you. There sure are some different dynamics to our winters here than in NC.

Per the 18Z NAM anyone in the NW quarter of TX could see snow tomorrow night. The best chance would be in an area bounded by Abilene, Weatherford, Gainesville and Wichita Falls. I could see some flakes into DFW proper, but for accumulations to occur there the system will need to track south of the Red River.

Chances for a winter weather event are increasing for late Friday into Saturday morning across northern Texas. A lot depends on the track of the SW low. If it stays up along the Red River then likely just a bit of backside flurries. If it passes south of I-20 then rain likely transitions through all precip types starting late Friday.

The NAM is starting to show what i expect on Friday. A vigorous upper low will cross the state behind the cold front which will generate a surface low over E TX or NW LA. This will lead to a changeover to wintery precip on the backside of the precip. We can also expect some decent rain totals ahead of the changeover. I still see potential for Saturday into Christmas Eve also. We are heading into a very cold and active 2 to 3 weeks.

2 hours ago, vwgrrc said:

You might be right. The latest GFS went crazy for N TX through Jan 3rd. It's just one run at this time, but could be indicating something.

Ensembles sure indicate something. Looks like we start the outbreak thus weekend with some marginal wintery threats then unsettled late next week. We will then likely see a big storm to finally kick the Arctic outbreak out around New Years.

Despite what individual op runs show I am becoming very optimistic about the chances for winter precip anytime between Friday and early Jan, likely multiple rounds four areas north of I-20 and maybe a round south of there also. We have a solid -EPO and an active STJ both are set in place for at least the next couple weeks and likely longer.

24 minutes ago, Roy said:

No matter what happens next week, I am happy with the rain for now. Finally some decent constant rain. My family Christmas plans are safe as well except for maybe a light snow driving back to TX, no biggie.

Yep, you cannot complain about how things are working out so far. A tricky forecast for Friday and Saturday but no scenario is anything like what looks possible as of late last week.

2 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I enjoy reading Weatherbell's seasonal outlooks, but going to be pretty hard to get to this:

 

Given this:

 

Warmest area of the country right now is the place they thought would be coldest.

 

I think the N Plains will end up below average as the PNA shifts back to its expected mode of slightly negative with a consistent -EPO.

For North Texas this weekend I think significant precip amounts are very likely, the question is will it be 29 or 60. I can see the Canadian scenario of cold west of I-35 with a wam sector over SE TX.

1 hour ago, Roy said:

Well looking more meh. Still surprises me when models change something they have had consistently for run after run for a week. But, give me cold please and a storm will come. Problem is, hard to keep cold here.

The cold will be easier to keep if the Arctic Circle sgidta south to the Northern Plains as shown on recent models. Those 1050, 1060 or even 1070 highs will bring cold at the surface SE ridge or not.

Latest models showing the first front on Friday not being real cold so now wintery precip. Then the real cold comes down over the weekend with a massive high pressure dome. With high pressure like that single digits and def teens are very likely for lows. Not much of any precip the extreme cold. Though remember that it takes very little too produce light snow at those temps.

1 minute ago, vwgrrc said:

Yes. But still, 7 days to go. I wouldn't get too concern or excited about that until probably Monday to Tuesday. If the model tells the same by then, that's something serious!

Agreed that we still have a bit of time for things to change, but at this point the models have been very consistent for a week and the threat is becoming greater and greater with every model cycle. This is a Harvey-esque situation where we know about the event well ahead of rime but the true scope becomes clearer as the event nears. Also remember that this event is likely to start next weekend and rounds of precip will continue every few days through at least early January with Arctic air being continually reinforced during that time frame. People had trouble comprehending the possibility of widespread 30"rain totals a week before Harvey also. You cannot deny when all models op and ens show very similar outcomes run after run.

18Z GFS with a scary run. Widespread areas of Texas modeled to get over 3 inches of liquid in sub freezing air.

1 minute ago, vwgrrc said:

Which means no wintry precip for North TX, right?

It shows a historic winter storm for N TX. Just remember this is just one model run, 9 days out from the potential event, so it is far from a forecast.

12Z Euro is wow and it transitions things to snow early enough for much of it to fall as white stuff though all types are likely. Pretty much over a half foot of various precip types along I-20 across the state.

1 minute ago, jhamps10 said:

personally, I have no problem whatsoever for FTW using caution in regards to mentioning this.. It gets the word out there that hey there could be something, but we aren't real sure that it will come about either.. Look at the models from last night, 0zGFS had nothing, but the 6Z had a crippling Icestorm for a good chunk of the metroplex. However I'd stock up on the Christmas groceries a bit earlier this year just in case

My issue is the models have been very consistent with this event. The ensembles have not wavered and the operational runs, especially the GFS, have been incredibly consistent. Personally I have never seen the models show this strong of a signal, this far in advance (the GFS has been on this for a week without wavering significantly). I will be watching the NAM intently starting on Tuesday as it is the best model for Arctic air masses.

Neither have done great on the big events, though the GFS sure has been consistent on the upcoming storm. The SOI crash lends credence to a big time STJ which we have lacked so far this fall and winter.

I fully respect the NWS and the FTW office in particular is typically great, but the probability chart they put out regarding the winter storm threat being very low is as reckless or even more so than some nobody trying to hype the storm. This storm needs to be taken as seriously as if there was a hurricane being modeled to hit within a week.