aggiegeog

The NM mountains continue to see their snow piling up with heavy snow falling this morning. They have been getting almost daily snow for the last week plus with that expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

Getting bad out towards Abilene and Wichita Falls where there is an Ice Storm Warning. WWA to the NW edge of DFW could extend into Tarrant and Collin later today. 

22 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

I'm skeptical of any sort of wintry weather occurring at this point 

For the city, it will take below 28 likely for significant impacts which is unlikely. Icicles hanging from signs and trees along with sleet is likely though. A very similar setup 10 days ago gave my area a glaze with white roofs with 28 to 31 degree surface and 50 degrees at 850 mb even some spotty snow.

Incredibly hard call for DFW tomorrow. 33 and heavy rain or 29 and a mess of a mix. With such a shallow cold layer and warm ground major issues are unlikely though DFW has lots of elevated roads so it could get tricky out there. NW of DFW could get nasty though.

3 hours ago, radarman said:

Localized but significant straight line wind damage overnight in Godley (Johnson County).  Decent line today through the metroplex and maybe one more round coming later on with the fropa.

I believe this was determined to be an EF-0.

Significant ice event possible tomorrow from the Midland area NE towards Wichita Falls tomorrow (light ice possible for DFW). Rain amounts will be over three inches for large swaths of N and E TX through Thursday with a few spots pushing up towards 10 inches.

Sipapu received another 10" so the northern NM snowpack is quickly building finally.

Looks like Sipapu got 10", their biggest snow of the season so far. They are finally over 2 feet for the season. Should be able to say that by before Christmas most years.

To me it looks like a below average next few weeks with plenty of precip for most of the state. PNA going negative finally, EPO may be going positive though models have shown this many times and it has not happened and NAO/AO goes negative as the SSW event flexes its muscles. I would say wintery weather is very possible for northern Texas. Next week has potential though PNA may be too negative with too positive of a NAO. Later in the month still has good potential especially if the PNA stays closer to neutral. We are moving into a very Nino esque pattern with highs near or below average and lows near to above average with little to no sun and lots of rain. Anytime the PNA slips back toward neutral then we will turn chilly with some of the best Atlantic blocking we have seen in a long time. This will finally give the SW some drought relief hopefully extending into the Panhandles.

16 hours ago, cstrunk said:

Here in north Longview we had light rain that transitioned to light sleet and even some "heavy" flurries for about 10 minutes. We have another round of light precip approaching right now, so we'll see what it brings. It's been a nice little surprise so far.

I am still amazed at the snow reports. At first I discounted them with the very warm nose (50F at 850mb), but I guess the low levels were cold enough around 900mb with saturation to produce a surprise dusting for some around here.

Impressive little event over E TX. A line of showers and thunderstorms passing through subfreezing surface temps producing a.mix of freezing rain, sleet and even a bit of snow. Bridges are slick and cars are coated in ice some spots have white ground. Solid WWA type system for most of E TX.

49 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Anyone wanna take bets on whether that thundersleet cluster reaches Dallas?

Looks like it will though maybe not as intense as it was earlier.

Thundersleet shower near Brownwood. I remember experiencing that in March 2014 here.

Metroplex removed from WWA though some freezing drizzle this morning is still likely along with sleet showers. 

Here in Hideaway we sit at 28 with a light glaze of ice on elevated surfaces from a bit of drizzle. We will see if we stay cold enough for sleet arond lunch time here. WWA still active here and to the SW of DFW.

Chances for a widespread icing event are increasing for Saturday night and Sunday. This could be followed by a potentially bigger storm in the form of a cutoff uper low next week.

Next Sunday and maybe into Monday could be wintery here in Texas. GFS starting to really dig the trough on Sunday on the 18Z though it shears it out before it reaches us so no wintery precip this run. Get that digging a bit deeper and hold it together longer and things turn very interesting around here.

I received over 3.5" of rain last night. Temps are holding in the mid 30s with thick cloud cover so far today.

Sounds like roads are bad north of 380.

Temps crashing pretty good this evening. It will be interesting to see if they can get down to 29 before significant precip ends over N TX.

Pretty good hailstorm in Lindale just now. Temp in the mid 40s.

Freezing drizzle through tonight for the NW half of N TX, may try to push into Tarrant Co. Tomorrow morning we will have to watch for another round of freezing drizzle, mainly south of I-20, if temps drop below freezing tonight in those areas. This weekend and beyond look active but models are a jumbled mess right now.

Icing likely tomorrow for the NW half of N TX and it is possible for all of N TX. E TX is looking at a chilly but stormy evening and night tomorrow with showers all day tomorrow.

A pretty solid upper air pattern for winter weather is setting up for the weekend so attention turns to that after tomorrow. Looks like we are in for a chilly and wet Feb around hereso winter mischief is def on the table this month.

18 hours ago, DFWWeather said:

In all of weather records kept for North Texas area, the above scenario as has never occurred, so that was an easy disregard. Even during the severe Arctic outbreak of 1899 (coldest on record for this area), it wasn't that cold.

Nearly all of today's guidance unanimously is backing off on any Arctic air intrusions over the next couple of weeks, despite the -EPO and MJO phases, the abundance of cold air in Canada, and the highly amplified flow H5 pattern. Our best chances to see Arctic air intrusions are this Sunday 2/4 and again around 2/10. I'm not sure I totally buy off on this yet (especially for the 2/10 period), but it is sure looking like most of the cold air will be kept well north and east of Texas this go around. The operational models have not handled any of our cold air intrusions this winter well at all, and it could possibly change.

Mid-month is looking very interesting with possible SSW resulting in a split PV and with SOI values crashing we could see the return of precip. I am not convinced of any solution right now, though I seriously doubt we see a torch of any kind. I am thinking we will see warmer lows and cooler highs vs what we saw in Jan as well as at least near average precip with potential for above average precip.

Umm, the most extreme 12Z GEFS member is showing lows on the 12th way below 0 (-20s in NE TX) with even some sub 0 highs. Lets hope we can toss out that possibility, but mean lows around 20 for days 10-16 is still crazy. Thursday morning is the only morning in the 16 day run with a mean low over 39. Wish there was more precip showing up, but that's life with persistent cold NW flow.

GEFS beyond this weekend is -EPO, +PNA with dominating PV anomaly over Hudson Bay. This is a clear cold east of the Rockies pattern. This also does not leave much room for storms to develop sadly. Will again have to rely on NW flow clippers to find some moisture. If the +PNA could relax for a moment during this maybe we could get a storm, but it would likely again favor South Texas and the Gulf Coast.

The potential is there for a very cold February for almost all of NAm. Only thing lacking is a -NAO to generate a storm though they matters more for East of Texas. For us to get snow out of this We will want to see periods of neural PNA allowing for SW US troughs.