aggiegeog

Yea, too bad it doesn't have any moisture to work with I was hoping it would dig just a bit more though the Canadian still offers some hope it will be dynamic enough for a bit in NE TX.

Which portion are you referring to? If the Wed event, there will be a strong closed low crossing the state though it looks like it may stay positive tilted so it will struggle to get enough moisture. Chances go up the further NE you are though it could wait to produce until it reaches Arkansas.

The pics from the NM mountains are incredible. Love the pics ave vids from the Plains also. Here in NE TX I'll have my shot on Wed for decent snow.

Monday is looking very interesting for Texas with snow possible for everyone north of I-20.

I am thinking about taking a Thanksgiving week trip to the mountains with the family if there is some snow on the ground up around 9k feet which seems likely right now. Our place likely got about a foot from this system with more in the forecast.

The post Halloween weekend is really starting to capture my attention. -EPO with a western longwave trough digging SW towards Baja plus a East coast ridge.

The pre Halloween system looks like it is going to not have the SW extension like models had shown last week, but the post Halloween pattern still looks chilly with a -EPO and either a western or plains based longwave trough.

Texas will see another round of very heavy rain next week which we def do not need. This will be followed by our next cold shot which could bring a frost/freeze at least to northern TX.

The crazy 12Z GFS op run notwithstanding, models generally sticking with late month Polar blocking with troughing over the Lower 48 for late this month into early November.

Well the GFS is dang close to showing a white Halloween. Shades of 1993.

THe cold and wet weather looks like i is here to stay. GFS shows no highs above 75 through the end of Oct. Op and ensembles runs of multiple models are showing some very cold air in time for Halloween with a possibility of wintery mischief.

Tyler was still at 69 at midnight so no record cold high today, but there is a chance that tomorrow through Friday could set record cold highs. Tyler's record lows are in the 30s now so we won't quite get there. Tomorrow's record rainfall is is 2.00" so that will be challenged also. Averages for mid Oct in Tyler are 57/78 so way below that.

Next week will feature a pattern that will likely be typical of the next 5 months. We will see cold, surface air flowing down the Plains with a noisy subtropical jet over top of the cold. This early in the season the wintery precip will likely be confined to NW TX but maybe some sleet mixes in Monday into N TX. Highs in N TX will likely be near 40 for N TX Monday and not much warmer for Tuesday before it slowly warms up through the rest of the week.

Hope all are enjoying the return of cool temps. I got down to 52 this morning. We have the remnants of Sergio to bring us some more rain this weekend then a strong cold front for the beginning of next week. Monday and Tuesday look downright chilly to even cold for most of the state with overrunning precip. A decent snowstorm is likely for the Panhandle with mixed precip SE from there a ways. Highs in the 40s for most of TX Mon and Tue. N TX likely won't see 60 until late week at best. This is all thanks to the -EPO dumping Canadian cold air and a Baja low pumping in Pacific moisture.

Some indications of a pretty good early season snow for the New Mexico mountains next weekend. That is on top of whatever rain/mountain peak snow they get from Rosa.

Nice post and matches my general thoughts for the winter. For my area (E TX) I expect a cool winter with many frost and freezes but likely not a lot of hard freezes. I do not foresee the extreme cold like we saw last winter (6 degrees), but many more freezes overall. We also are very likely to see above normal precip. Should be a good winter, but likely nothing historic. I will call for 3-5" of snow this season here and 4-6" for DFW.

Finally getting a bit of rain.

More storms look to be on tap this evening, hopefully they can hold together at least to I-20.

38 yesterday and 34 and still dropping this morning. In some years those are January lows.

Strong storms today for N and E TX. Some sleet or freezing rain for N TX tonight and tomorrow. Gonna be a raw day tomorrow for my son's first baseball game.

The cold front is slowly advancing north still 40s in N TX with 70s and 80s in SE TX. E TX should see a line of strong storms tomorrow afternoon with temps falling from the mid 70s ahead of the front to 50s by evening and 30s by Wed morning. Thu morning could again see frost for NE TX. Temps then warm ahead of a strong front on Friday. Models show some hints of sleet Friday night along the Red River with a mix possible south of the River into N & NE TX.

After a stormy week this week we should have a nice Easter. Beyond that looks like we turn cold again with snow showing on the Euro for areas north of I-20 next week.

I had some frost this morning with a low around 35. 8 years ago we had the finale of the amazing 09/10 winter with widespread 2" and some spots over 6".

Snuck in a freeze this morning with 32 degrees. Looks like we are in for a stormy weekend.

4 years ago today I experienced a sleet thunderstorm. Maybe the most amazing thing I have ever experienced weather wise. Ended up with around 2" of pure sleet though there was a lot of wind so hard to get accurate measurements with the drifting.