aggiegeog

Snow chances are increasing for next Wed across most of the state though I would say that NE TX is in the best spot to see something accumulate. About half of Euro ensemble members show accumulation for N & NE TX wit the Sulphur Springs area being the epicenter. Still too far out to really get into details though. This may be the I-20 tracking winter season closed low we have been waiting for. That said I still think the heart of our snow chances are mid winter (1/15-2/20ish).

Big changes starting around New Year's and especially in January as the SSW event leads to a -AO. Just how cold will depend on the EPO. Moisture should continue to be prevalent through the winter. We are about to enter the much anticipated winter season. Enjoy the next couple weeks of near normal temps because those will be rare in the heart of winter this year. Fingers crossed for a few storms to hit jackpot for us. I still hold to my previous predictions of most spots in TX north of I-20 receiving seasonal snowfall totals of over a foot.

Thursday and Thursday night maybe into Friday morning will be wild across Texas with strong storms and heavy rain ahead of the low and blizzard conditions on the backside. The sweet spot for snow among all models seems to be east of Abilene, but really anywhere north of I-10 has at least a slight chance for some snow mixing in.

Now looking like we may have an I-20 Special for Saturday afternoon. An upper low traversing from south of Big Bend and NE along I-20 will bring a narrow band of heavy snow to west Texas and likely into N TX possibly extending into NE TX during the day Saturday. Temps become marginal as it heads east though dynamic cooling from the intense upper low could overcome that for brief periods of time.

The surface low is just too far away and the upper low too tight for areas much NW of I-44 to see much snow out of this. The storm will very likely continue trending south as is typically the case. I will almost always trust the NAM for near term forecasting of upper lows and Arctic fronts, but even it is likely too far north with things. An upper low entering in So Cal will almost always dig south before ejecting. Watch for the upper low to slow just a tad more and if it does it will be able to tap into the northern stream energy more. Saturday afternoon could be wild from Abilene north to Ardmore and over to Fort Smith. Areas near this line could see 4-6 inches with up to a foot possible where local bands set up. There is a ton of energy to be sampled today and we should know a lot more by tonight. PS it is really sad how terrible the GFS is at modeling weather in its home country. This has been a pretty easy forecast honestly for over a week now. All about pattern recognition which is why we still need good weather forecasters and not just model readers.

Models keep trending towards N TX. I am holding firm in my forecast since day one on this event of the best snow falling along I-44 and down towards just west of Abilene.

We are still looking at a multi inch rain event for much of the state with heavy snow in the Panhandle. Things end as snow showers for all north of I-20

The models are going the direction that was expected with temps trending colder and the system trending south. I expect the 18Z NAM to lay down some good snow totals over DFW late Saturday.

After Christmas we will see the most blocking we have seen since 09/10 so that should hopefully allow us to see more occasions where temps end up cold.

For N and NE TX the upcoming event looks like a cold rain with maybe some flurries Saturday night into Sunday morning. West of a Abilene to WF line there could be some snow or mixed precip on Friday. Along the Red River there could be some accumulating snow on Saturday and into Saturday night. Rain amounts could reach 6 inches locally between I-10 and I-20 east of I-35.

Still looks to me that we are still going to see south shifts in the precip areas for the late week storm. Surface lows that track from the TX coast to LA do not typically drop precip much into OK. The GFS shows the mid level low way NW of the surface low, but that does not seem like how these have acted in the past. I expect widespread precip on Friday all over the Southern Plains as the front pushes into the STJ. It will be a now cast to see how quickly the cold air comes to see who gets ice, snow or heavy rain. Then by Sat morning the surface low takes over ending precip west of a Abilene to SE OK line while pulling down more cold air so the backside of the precip should lay down a few inches of snow east of the line I stated above.

Looking at the Euro ensembles, next weekend could feature winter storm for Texas with over half of the members showing some snow in either N or NE TX and close to a quarter of the members showing greater than three inches somewhere in N or NE TX. A few members have close to a foot along the Red River. Ice is also possible especially west of DFW early on in this event. Beyond the snow possibility of heavy rain with some members highlighting 6+ inches locally over E TX. A huge chunk of the state should receive over half an inch.

In the NM mountains, resorts will likely see 6-12" of snow this weekend with another round of possibly even heavier snow late next week.

Storms tonight then a nice weekend then a trailing shortwave on Monday. It would not take much amplification for this trailing shortwave to spit some flurries over N and N TX on Monday. Then most of next week looks cool with multiple morning freezes. Rain return Friday into Saturday and maybe Sunday. Much of the state looks to see 1-3" of rain from this. Up in OK and KS this could begin as a decent ice storm. In TX there could be a changeover to snow late Saturday. The 8th is going to be a very interesting day to watch on the models, but the 3rd is also sneaky.

This system will bring some heavy snow to the NM mountains.

As I have been saying for a month next week has potential. The -EPO will supply the cold and we will have a strong shortwave moving into So Cal next week. If the low can stay south until east of El Paso we all stand a good chance.

The system around the 8th has real potential for snow in Texas if it can stay along or south of the US/MX border. Otherwise it is a good rain event with show in NM and NW TX. The -EPO should supply the cold so it all depends on the track of the low. If it can cross Texas as a closed low the or chances for snow and significant rain increase a lot. Following this storm temps will moderate as we get into a zonal flow for a bit before hopefully cooling down for Christmas.

The moisture is there but where it sets up will depend on how deep the western trough digs. For TX the trough will need to dig south of the border. Models right now are showing it more in the CA/NV area which keeps most activity north of here. I'll be watching to see if the initial trough late this week can dig south to near the US/MX border vs 4 corners. If it can then I think next week is very interesting as each piece should dig a tad further than the prior piece of this general western trough.

The ensembles are showing the -EPO/-PNA/=NAO pattern that can be great around here for early Dec. I still am targeting the 12/3-5 period for a possible Texas winter storm.

Looks like all is falling into place for our first winter storm around Dec 3rd. Models should begin to show this within a few days. Look for a SW low to form within the next week and roll east along the SW border with a broad eastern US trough and a ridge over the NE Pacific.

The pattern that is setting up for the winter is incredible. You can not draw it up any better. On paper this is better than 09/10. Now I can't say any one storm will dump a foot again, but seasonal totals north of I-20 in Texas could reach 10" and very possible 20". Things begin at the end of this month.

Reports of snow continue across E TX today and per the models this activity will continue through the night. Maybe after dark some spots will get a dusting.

Angel Fire, NM reported -27 with light snow overnight. It can get brutally cold in that valley.

NE NM received 6-12 inches of snow with the ski resorts getting 10-15 inches and the peaks likely over 2 feet. Not a bad storm especially considering its not the first snow of the season. A good snow pack is building up which after last year is a blessing.

Have seen reports of snow tonight from E TX. A band of snow is moving across SC TX and should move into SE TX later this morning. No accumulations expected beyond a dusting though maybe a quarter inch if it becomes convective. This would be the earliest snow for most if it occurs.