aggiegeog

mPing and posts on other forums confirm snow and sleet in northern DFW. The back edge of the precip is not progressing much at all so chances increasing for those E I35 to see something though I still think you have to be east of DFW for accumulations. I think SHV is crazy for not even inserting mix into tonight's forecast.

The E TX snow potential still looks at least possible tonight. Some good moisture streaming out of C TX right now. Some flakes already reported in DFW area.

GFS and Euro still show up to a couple inches of backside snow Wed from the Hill Country up through NE TX. Maybe a bit for the SE side of DFW per the Euro. GFS would offer a bit in N Houston metro. Where I am at, NW of Tyler, looks to be as good of a spot as any.

Looks like backend post frontal snow is possible Wed morning from Austin to Texarkana, amounts would be light maybe up to a couple inches. Bust potential is high as precip will be on its way out as the cold rushes in, some chance for high bust if cold is faster. Another chance on Friday bit details are slim on that.

Couple hours if it gets its act together. At best it looks like light snow for northern DFW.

HRRR has been spot on with this system. Another light band to follow later this morning. Both bands should stay north of I-20/30. Y'all enjoy.

Looks like the PV lobes have potential to dig under the +PNA ridge far enough to tap into the STJ per the op and ens model runs lately so our snow outlook for the next few weeks is still high. Today's supposed warm day is a cloudy 60 degrees and we have not had a torch all winter. It has been wet and mild all winter, very El Nino like, thankfully the SSW event is going to supply the cold though not centered over us.

Looking like we may be dealing with +PNA mess through the end of the month shunting a good bit of the cold to out east ala Jan 2014. Thankfully being late Jan it still will be chilly, but more concerning is that may cut off some of the STJ we have enjoyed this season. Hopefully the pattern can retrograde back west before too long. 2014 still managed an epic March storm so things are not over by a long shot.

Man I cannot get over how awesome this pattern looks to be for late this month into Feb. Everyone east of the Rockies will be in the deep freeze for a few weeks with minor systems bringing light precip. By mid month I could see a big storm develop if we can get a lobe of the Aleutian low to undercut the -EPO ridge and dive into So Cal. If that happens that could be the big winter storm for the South and it may be enough to disrupt to overall deep freeze pattern by breaking down the NW Atlantic high. For Late Feb into Early March it will be interesting to see if the cold relocates or re establishes itself over NAM in time for a last winter storm before spring. Interspersed in the deep freeze could be weak to moderate systems in the cold flow to bring some nice snow by Texas standards.

The most severe cold looks to be this weekend through mid Feb, but high end snowfall is likely beyond that. Could see a longer version of what we saw last year at this time with high ratio snow and very cold temps. I think the coldest for Texas will be early Feb though teens are possible Sun and Mon along and north of I20 and again later next week.

Man the next 6 weeks look incredible. Cold and storms so snow is very likely. This will be among the coldest Februarys we have ever seen across NAM. -EPO, -AO, -NAO and -PNA along with a weak El Nino. Could not write up a better atmospheric set up for the eastern 2/3s of the US.

We are finally within a week of the much anticipated flip to the cold and snowy pattern. The first chance for wintery weather comes behind the front this Fri into Sat (thunderstorms to sleet to snow type set up) then another chance for around next Tue. Beyond that look for storms to bring chances for wintery precip every 4 or so days. Not all will be hits, but there is a high likelihood that at least a few will be.

That storm is likely to track too far south for NW of I40/I44 and could be too far south for anyone north of the Red River. The storm is a great candidate for suppression with the seasons first true Arctic outbreak. I expect maybe light snow with the front followed by very cold temps. KS and N OK could drop below 0 pretty easily with this storm and there is potential for the whole region to do so as models make their SW shift with this storm. This looks like a I20 storm in the Southern Plains shifting up towards I40 as it moves east. This storm is the beginning of what should be a 6 week stretch of regular winter storms for the Southern Plains so we all should get our share of snow.

Potential growing for a Southern Plains winter storm next weekend. Many more chances beyond that.

GEFS still showing a good late month pattern. For mid month the pattern is still loading up so nothing impressive down here yet.

The GEFS is beginning to pick up on a potentially great mid month pattern with a -EPO, -AO and -PNA.

As expected along the I-20 corridor I do not think we will see any snow accumulations late today into tomorrow morning but I do expect some snow flakes in the air. If we get any heavy showers then some spots could see a coating as that would drop temps from near 40 to the mid 30s.

NW Tarrant county is experiencing much worse icing on the roads than they expected. Surface roads should be ok but anything elevated is a nightmare.

Models are doing terrible on surface temps today. They are running way too warm. Which in turn leads to forecasts including the NWS being way warm.

I wonder how quick temps will fall this evening esp if they only rise to 33 or 34 this afternoon. If temps get down around 30 then elevated surfaces will really become an issue tonight.

Looks like the freezing line is pushing a bit further through DFW now. Hearing reports of icing on elevated roads in western and northern DFW. Temps are nearing freezing in Dallas County now.

Things seem to be going according to plan so far. Some freezing rain for western DFW but roads should be good. Watch out again tonight for the same scenario. Areas west of DFW could get more significant icing later this morning. Still looks like areas along and north of I-20 have a shot at snow under the upper low late tomorrow and through Friday morning in NE TX. Heavy rain for Central and East Texas will lead to some flooding issues as we have been wet for a while.

This will be a very impactful storm for Texas with heavy snow for NW Texas, significant icing possible for west central Texas up through western N Texas and flooding rain for Central, SE and East Texas. And at the end Thursday evening and night the DFW through NE Texas corridor could see snow. The upper low train looks to continue all winter and the real cold induced by the recent SSW will commence in mid Jan and last for a good while so snow chances will increase dramatically for many of us. This is still on tap to be a very snow winter for the state.

Euro showing hints of a Thu snow event. After the freezing rain on Wed. As expected models are shifting the low south to I20 again.

I am becoming concerned about the potential for icing early Wed before the deeper cold arrives for a transition to all snow. The globals struggle to see STJ moisture so I think there could be more precip earlier and further west than indicated now. Hopefully the cold is deep enough that most everything is either rain or snow. If this upper low can track south of El Paso the there is some high end potential for snow ala 2/11/2010 as the cold is here ahead of the moisture.