aggiegeog

Models all indicate a very wet first half of May. The -EPO/-PNA pattern is beautiful.

The mountains have been very warm lately except for a couple cold snow days. At 9K feet they have had highs in the 60s and even around 70 some days. Our place on Highway 518 has dropped from 50 this morning to snow now. Last Saturday was wild going from bare ground to snow covered back to bare ground multiple times in 12 hour period.

Sure does.

Tomorrow night could feature some strong storms for N TX and Saturday afternoon in E & SE TX looks volatile with tornados possible. As the system exits Sat night into Sun morning there will likely be some snow on the backside. It is questionable how much will wrap around south of the Red River though. Upper Levels will be plenty cold down to I-20 and surface will be in the upper 30s most likely all depends on how far south the moisture can wrap around. Maybe somewhere like Denison gets a dusting.

Got down to 31 here this morning.

Maybe a late season freeze for northern Texas Monday morning. Sunday and Monday look to be chilly days, maybe not out of the 40s.

The mountains will likely see the heaviest snow totals in a good long while. These big March snow storms used to be more common. Hope this is a return of that trend.

34 here this morning. We may see the low 40s today with drizzle, a long cry from the near 70 and sunny predicted a couple days ago. Tomorrow may reach 50 with showers. Sunday looks like temps falling into the 30s but little to no post frontal precip on any model. 30s to low 40s and cloudy Monday. Best shot I see for precip late Monday is for the GL upper low to be weaker and shift west. This would keep us in more zonal flow vs NW fow and it would allow the shortwave a chance to not fully shear out. The cold stays around through Wed before a warm-up Thu ahead of the next cold front next Friday.

On Monday the GFS had the front along the Red RIver right now haha. I had the I-20 corridor in the 70s today and the Hill COuntry in the 80s. only a 40-50 degree bust.

An icy mess this morning across DFW and all of N TX. WWA in effect.

Models are not handling the SW push of the Arctic air into the TX Panhandle well at all.

Three small chances for winter precip over the coming few days. I'm not excited about any of them right now. Some record low highs could be challenged with this and Wed morning could drop into the teens.

Areas along and north of I-20 could see sleet on Thursday. Temps in this area are unlikely to reach 40. NWS is calling for 50s and I just don't see it as the Arctic front looks to solidly push through.

Looking at all of the models it has a 3/2/14 feel with very cold air to our NE and a shortwave out of the NW. That produced a line of sleet thunderstorms followed by light dry snow the next day. For that to happen we need the shortwave to be stronger than modeled though. As it stands I see 30s and rain on Monday followed by very cold air and maybe light snow north of I-20 on Tuesday. I am not seeing much room for good snow, but if the high can come down over 1050 MB and a bit further W it is possible late Monday. Wed morning looks like around 20 (warmer if no snow and colder if there is snow on the ground). Wed morning will likely be the coldest of the season, but whether that is just barely colder than January or much colder is TBD.

Early next week is becoming interesting for areas north of I-20. Still many days to watch so I am being cautious for now about getting my hopes up.

Sleet is possible north of I-20 tomorrow. Sleet or not this should be a good rain even east of I-35.

Heard from someone living at 9k feet in the are that my family has their pace that they had 0.5" of rain last night, crazy rare to get rain during winter that high. Those dirt roads are gonna be crazy muddy and then icy as temps drop and snow piles up again over the next few days.

Its been a decent winter up there. Far better than last year. Just no big storm that makes headlines. -PNA is sure helping keep the STJ focused on the SW.

When I was in Henderson yesterday afternoon it was sleeting hard and it brought the temp down to 28. Nothing that I know of in Hideaway.

Winter weather advisory now out for north central Texas. I expect one to be issued this evening by SHV for E TX.

A mixed bag of precip already reaching the ground from Del Rio to Lufkin this morning. This is much earlier in the day than expected. Seems that the wave is producing more lift than modeled.

Chances increasing for a mix of all types f winter precip tomorrow through Saturday morning. Around midday day tomorrow a mix of rain and snow will start in C TX this pushes into N and E TX through the afternoon. Through the evening and overnight the mid levels warm transitioning things to a sleet/rain mix or freezing rain depending on surface temps Sat morning. Chances for ice end in E TX by mid morning Sat. Some higher end potential with this though a minor event of 1/2" snow with some sleet/freezing rain on top seems most likely. Temps look to be in the 30s with this.

Looks like by late ext week we could be dealing with a pattern conducive to Southern Plains winter storms. The details will have to be worked out as a large scale pattern shift will occur next week with the end of the TPV dominance and the return of the +ENSO dominance.

It has been a wacky year to forecast more than few days out. I still think TX will see some snow later in Feb as the STJ heats up, but how blocking sets up will be key for if it is 50 and rain for days or cold and some snow.

SHV has removed the 40% chance of rain for Monday night now just showing 50% chance of rain Monday evening. I think this is a more reasonable forecast at this point. There is just not much moisture to work with this far west. Though with strong forcing I could see some flurries after midnight for E TX. With a strong PNA ridge over the west there just is not any way for the front to tap into Pacific moisture. After the first few days of Feb we look to enter a much more favorable pattern for Southern Plains snow and the pattern does its annual retrogression to a -PNA and -EPO state as the TPV dissipates finally allowing a more typical Feb El Nino pattern to manifest.