aggiegeog
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Everything posted by aggiegeog
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No I think there is a good chance for snow at the end along and north of I-20. Most won't stick but up around Paris to Texarkana I could see a couple spots getting over an inch quickly. If the surface high over the Plains comes in in the mid 1030s vs the modeled 1030ish then everything shifts to I-20 or south.
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There is a non-zero chance for snow Tues north of I-20.
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Yep, I am intrigued enough the watch ensemble 500mb charts at least. The surface maps are fun, but only valuable to highlight possible scenarios not to base forecasts on.
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Models are showing some very interesting possibilities for the 13th-17th timeframe for the Southern Plains. Still much to figure out in regards to the evolution of a shortwave underneath the main West Coast ridge. Cold seems very likely, but there is potential for a heavy rain to ice and snow event along with the cold.
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This winter season looks great for snow in the area between I-25, I-35, I-70 and I-20 especially the NW half of that area.
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I agree with your analysis. The first big one of the season.
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Looks like the northern NM mountains will see feet of snow late this week potentially.
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This ties the coldest for November since I moved to my house in 2014 when it also got down to 17. Crazy though to have teens on consecutive mornings in early November. That is what a strong typhoon induced -EPO does though.
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19 yesterday morning and we are down to 19 as of 2am here.
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Central Texas got some sleet accumulations.
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Any reports on what is reaching the ground west of I-35?
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Central and NE TX could see light freezing rain or a mix this evening. Tomorrow morning there will likely be a few winchills in the single digits across N TX with sub 20 wind chills for anywhere north of I-10.
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Surprisingly NWS has inserted a changeover to snow showers for much of the state Monday night. I would have likely held off since it is a borderline event with no impacts expected either way that is still 4 days out.
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The early week winter storm idea is gaining more model support with the GFS showing a ice storm Monday night. The recurving typhoon will likely bring the coldest air yet around the 18th. This November will likely go down as one of the coldest ever in Texas and Nationwide.
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Early next week is starting to look interesting. It is certain that it will rain and be cold. Question is if there is enough energy coming out of Mexico behind the front to generate wintery precip.
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33 yesterday morning and 25 this morning at my house in Hideaway.
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This front will bring well below 0 temps to Angel Fire, NM, teens to the Panhandle and a freeze to most north of I20. Halloween morning wind chills around here could be in the teens with afternoon temps in the 40s only. If only the associated low could track further south so we could get wrap around flurries but it looks like the low will be well to our north keeping us cold and dry.
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Looks like my family's place in southern Taos County, NM got a few inches of snow so far.
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Looks like the NE quarter of NM and the TX Panhandle are in for their first significant snow tomorrow into Friday.
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Angel FIre, NM had a high of 51 on Friday then a low of 6 Saturday and back up to 57 then down to 13 this morning with a high of 62 this afternoon.
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Cold spots could drop into the 20s Sat morning in the cold spots along I-20 if the wind goes calm and skies clear.
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Looks like Friday will hold in the 40s for many with maybe some sleet if there is enough post frontal moisture. Frost is possible north of I-20 Saturday with a freeze possible along the Red River and in NW Texas.
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My weather station gave out a couple weeks ago so no measurements from my house. I need to get one ordered so I have it for the next front. Still in the upper 60s around Tyler.
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Could we see some frost this weekend?
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21 at my family's place near Ski Sipapu, NM. 13 at Angel Fire. NM, always a cold spot.
