aggiegeog

Also for those in Central and East Texas watch trends for Wednesday night. I could see some 3"+snow totals from the northern Hill Country into East Texas with a general 1/2-2" over a wide area. this is under the base of the trough as it kicks east out of Mexico.

That front is barrelling south right now. Key right now is if it slows as the globals indicate, if not then game on. Arctic air doesn't like to slow down but the mid level cold could we will see.

Starting to look like a DFW bullseye with heavy sleet and snow on Wed.

I am just excited for a storm with boom potential of a foot vs best case 3 inches. Get a bit stronger surface high and get the trough to dig further SW then it goes from an western NTx storm to an area wide blizzard. It is so nice to have a big one to watch. Shades of 09/10.

Hints of a significant snow now for Wednesday. Enough surface cold, plus a very strong upper level trough. We have not seen this in a long time. I am not going to be very optimistic until Monday though.

That is most likely obviously but now at least official forecasts for N TX are starting to include snow or a mix for Wednesday. Models show the same. Anything from low 50s and rain to low 30s and snow are possible.

GFS ensembles getting somewhat interesting for next week with a ridge off of the West Coast and an upper low moving into TX from the SW. We are in a very El Nino like pattern so nothing super cold but we just need temps in the mid 30s for snow with an upper low doing the rest.

Eh, our snow season is really mid February through early March.

35 with rain here. Some sleet earlier. The I-30 corridor is getting snow though.

Looks like some snow could mix in for northern E TX tomorrow morning. Up along I-30 there could be a dusting with flakes down to I-20 or a bit south. It'll be a cold rain into Thursday here snow or not.

Cloudy and showery around Tyler but still in the low to mid 70s. Glad we will be done with warmth for a while after this.

The GFS mid week next week is showing a strong Plains high moving south out of Canada with moist STJ slamming into it over Texas. The STJ dries out as it moves across the state and with no resulting surface low to pull in new moisture from the Gulf. For areas W of -35 and N of I-10 this set up is great and many could see a multi inch snow event. For areas E of I-35 the key will be to get a stronger upper air shortwave that translates into a surface low to pull in Gulf moisture. The GFS and its ensembles hint at a couple more storms after next weeks all with potential for winter precip. Love this time of year when cold has had time to build in over the continent and the STJ starts cranking.

Looks like the STJ will really get cranking over the next couple weeks. NM and TX will likely see multiple snow events. This is Feb 2015 esque with a train of storms over an extended time period and not a Feb 2010 style big single event. In 2015 I had snow on the ground for two weeks straight.

Looks like we are nearing the pattern flip that everyone has been waiting on. The eastern 2/3 of the US will be under a good winter pattern finally come next week and it appears to have staying power. The southern jet looks to become dominant. After this weekend the GFS nor GEFS has any 50s, though no signs of cold either. Both also show near constant precip chances. With this pattern any decent shortwave could produce snow. We won't have to spend 10 days waiting on one potential storm that may or may not pan out.

Could see some thundersnow in DFW this morning especially the NW half. I expect some 1-2"/hour rates maybe bursts even heavier for FW and Denton. Then wait a week and better chances for widespread snow next week.

Looks like the heaviest snows tomorrow may end up in DFW vs OK. HRRR shows over 3" in spots.

If the upper low on Sat can just track further south we could see some snow in N TX. For right now it looks like a big OK/AR snow event.

Looks like the amazing start to winter will continue for SW ski resorts. Since before Thanksgiving they haven't gone much more than a week without a 6" snow storm with cold in between (-22F right now at Angel Fire). For Texas all that is missing is for the PV to split which usually happens in late Jan. Most -EPO/-ENSO winters are bookend winters.

Just depends how suppressed it ends up being. The GFS is a fast and further north outlier right now. very cold upper levels and background temps in the low 40s would likely be some snow for Central through E TX on the backside from dynamic cooling. Big issue though is lack of a SW flow into the low for moisture as the cold will be there this weekend. Looking ahead, through Christmas and likely through the end of the year the cold and moisture will be west of the Rockies. I could see many mountain locales seeing >2 feet of snow throughout the West over the next couple weeks. This all because of a +EPO/-PNA pattern. Around the beginning of 2020 we look to see a return of -EPO with a continued -PNA which is a snowy pattern for the Plains.

Angel Fire, NM bottomed out at -26 last night. Man they get cold there.

Time to start watching the Friday/Saturday bowling ball upper low. There is potential for snow across the state with this.

The area south of Abilene may bring some mixed precip or even all snow. That is the last hope.

Yep, looks like the warm nose was more stout than expected. MPing shows some mixing reports over DFW, can any of yall confirm those?

I am favoring the Stephenville area for upwards of 3 inches with a rain/sleet/snow mix for DFW and the I-30 corridor of NE TX. Should be an entertaining day to watch social media with differing precip types by neighborhood depending on precip rates.

I could see this being a Waxahachie to Texarkana event where someone may get a wet inch with surface temps around 37. There could also be a precursor light event during the early morning NW of DFW with temps around 32 and night time allowing for accumulation even with lighter rates. All speculation until.we.get to after lunch tomorrow and can start looking at hi res models. Key for southern area could be convection. I do love not having to contend with a warm nose.