aggiegeog

Strong storms in the Tyler area with heavy Rain and the airport report 47 mph gust.

Max I see on that map is 15"

Looks like the northern NM peaks will see 8-16" of snow, with 3-6" at 9,000 ft and 0-2" for northern lower elevation towns. For areas east of I35 in TX we are clinging to hope from the NAM and CMC for the front to push at least partially into E TX. Behind the front highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 60s.

It will be interesting to see if the upper low hangs back enough that the front haha up. If so the cool down will be marginal east of I35. If the upper low does hang up then the NM snow could be impressive as it will prolong the duration of snowfall and allow ground temps to cool for more accumulations to occur. Above 7500' some accumulations are likely either way, but a slower upper low will allow for up to a foot above 9000'. There is a good chance for the first freeze and first snow in Texas during the first half of Sept since records began.

I have had over 7" and radar estimates up to 12" north of Chandler which is just to my SW. This even continues today, but I think the heavy stuff is about over with. Now on to next week's cold front and if it will be Plains (GFS) or SW (Euro) based. The Euro has us briefly cooling down next Wed before 80s return by Thu and it has a cold Panhandle and back into NM where they could get heavy snow. The GFS has snow for the Panhandle and NM Tue into Wed with the front blasting through TX on Wed. The GFS has the chilly weather sticking around into the weekend. A GFS solution would threaten record low maxes and record low mins.

It made it down to 37 here this morning

Spent the morning cleaning up the Bradford Pears in my grandparent's yard. Took out a few big 30ft ones. Man I hate those trees haha.

Sipapu reported 8"

That storm last night was intense. Took down some big trees and either snapped or knocked over tons of trees at my Dads nursery. Sipapu got around 8" of fresh snow.

That storm did some damage on my family's farm north of Lindale. I'm heading there this morning to help with cleanup. This was the worst storm there since they move there in the early 1980s.

Looks like OK especially western OK could see some decent snow next week.

That storm will bring cold with moisture wish it was a month or two ago.

Saturday was at or near record levels for cold highs, today is near record warm highs and northern Texas could see snow next week. March was boring but man April is not just hope no severe weather in between.

It is silly to do anything but pattern watch right now. Surface reflections are useless right now.

I need to check my rain gauge and see what additional rain I got. The drive into the Arlington Convention Center for NTNGA's Trade Show yesterday morning was interesting in the heavy rain. Also model teasing another Texas winter storm for the middle of next week. I have not looked at details on that yet.

I have gotten around 4" of rain from this event. As expected snow chances are increasing for next week.

Congrats to those in Central Texas and West Texas.

The transition line to snow is staying just to my west. Looks like a no go here, just a bit of sleet.

Looks like the I-35 corridor of C TX is getting at least a dusting tonight. It is inching toward me in NW Smith Co.

It still looks good for light snow tonight from Central TX through East TX. Moisture is shallow but it is there along with an impulse to wring the moisture out. I expect a dusting to an isolated inch for most as temps will be mostly in the 33-35 range and precip rates will be light.

Blizzard warning for mountains of West Texas where they could see a foot of snow with wind chills below 0.

Basically along and behind the 700mb front is where the heavy snow will be. Between the 700 and 850mb front is going to be mainly sleet. East of the 850mb front will be rain or freezing rain.

Agreed model support waned overnight. It is still incredibly close call especially west of I-35. A slight cool down would change things drastically for Fort Worth even as it they will likely see a fair amount of sleet. For Dallas even if surface temps end up near freezing the warm nose is pretty stout.

I expect all of DFW will end up with a warning by tomorrow morning. An inch of sleet will cause huge travel issues. DFW looks top miss out on most of the snow with the majority falling between Childress and Wichita Falls and a secondary band tomorrow night from the Austin area through Deep E TX.

This storm is the first in a long time that is associated with a very deep trough so I am not so concerned with warmth aloft though E of I35 mixing will be an issue but I do not think it will be all rain until you get east of DFW. Sleet could push all the way into E TX Wed. Thursday will feature incredibly cold temps aloft.