aggiegeog

DFW will do fin with this as they will see a combined >0.5" QPF easy all as snow and at ratios higher than 10:1. East Texas will likely see >1" QPF but some sleet may make the event closer to a 10:1 especially south of I-20. For the Tyler to Texarkana line I see less problems with mixing thus my forecasts being higher than modeled snow output. NE TX could have spots with 12-24" of snow this week.

I sure hope SHV goes with a watch areawide with this update.

I wonder if the colder than modeled temps we are seeing daily will adjust the storm track south.

Euro and ICON both have the coastal low further off of the coast causing less N TX precip though plenty for E TX. GFS and Canadian are further west with the low keeping it nearer to the coast brining more snow.

Models seem to be showing a QPF hole over DFW as the energy transfers into a Gulf low early Monday. Midweek system looks to track further west which should fill in the snow hole.

Doubtful DFW has outages from precipitation as it will be dry snow. As long as the grid is prepared for record demand then DFW should be fine. SE TX is another story where major icing will occur.

It will be interesting to see if FW and maybe SHV issue their first blizzard warnings ever. Seems to be a decent chance for FW west of I-35.

FW mentioning blizzard conditions this far out is surprising but well deserved. There will be blowing and drifting of the heavy high ratio snow. Especially along and west of I-35. East of I-35 ratios likely drop closer to 10:1 but QPF will be greater so totals will likely be similar. The second storm midweek will continue the hazards into late week so those of us with kids will have lots of virtual learning days to look forward to, yay lol.

That is a very DFW centric anomaly. Take today for example, a frozen mix is coating much of the state when only scattered light precip was modeled. The January snow was very well modeled even a 7-10 days beforehand. You cannot only consider a small geographic region. The Southern Plains are in the middle of one of the best winters in history with winter storms almost weekly somewhere in the region. This trend has no end insight as long as the -AO is in place.

SHV NWS extended the WAA until tomorrow, was originally only until noon today. Temps here only rose to 28 and seem to be dropping again. For now dry air near the surface is preventing more precip north of I-20, but that may change over time.

I am not concerned about missing out on the snow Monday along I-20 as models show good snow for most of the state they have just backed off on amounts as the wave is weaker and doesn't go negative tilt. Plenty of time for that to change even with the lower models currently I-20 corridor gets 3-6". The Canadian is crushing areas of N and NE TX Wed with >1" QPF of snow. Between the two storms most everyone will have 4-8 with some having a lot more than that.

I think the early week system is a 3-6" event for most north of I-10, with higher potential if the warm nose on models is overdone from greater ratios. We'll know more by Sat morning after the system moves ashore. The mid week storm will likely be pretty similar to the early week storm but maybe a bit warmer at the surface and colder in the upper levels possibly.

Haha, today was never supposed to be a big event but it has turned in an impactful one already with numerous accidents and multiple fatalities along with widespread school delays. I hope everyone stays safe today and stay home if possible. "The storm of the century" (comparable to 1895, 1899, 1977, 1983, 1989, 1996 and 2011) is for the the next 7-10 days combined considering it will be one of the longest stretches of sub freezing temps with some areas of N and NE TX set to see >200 hours below freezing, all time record lows possible, and multiple impactful winter precip events.

We will see GFS indicates the possibility.

Yea a big change. I will wait to see if it's a blip or a trend.

Just above freezing here with a thunderstorm ongoing. Hi Res models showing spotty 1" QPF in sub freezing air through lunchtime tomorrow from the Hill Country to NE TX. Temps in these areas look to be 29-32 so accretion rates will not be super efficient. Still I could see areas of >.25" of ice develop, but not sure they will be widespread enough to justify any ISWs. Most will see <0.1" of ice. Anyone NW of a Austin to Texarkana line needs to be cautious driving tonight and tomorrow morning.

SHV NWS added their NW and N tiers of counties to the WWA party for tonight and tomorrow morning. The freezing fog up in northern DFW makes the trees look awesome.

I don't consider it hype when it is less than 150 hours out with great consensus among among all major models and their ensembles. Tonight will depend on if the heaviest precip falls in areas with 31 or 28 degrees temps. If >.5 QPF falls in DFW then accumulations of ice of .25 are likely. If this heavy precip is more towards Terrell and Canton then it will have a harder time accreting efficiently.

Monday is perfection for a Texas snow storm. Western Gulf surface low, 1040s Plains surface high, TPV over Midwest, negative tilting shortwave and a Siberian air mass at the surface.

I consider major being 0.25". That's enough to make travel impossible and to cause power issues.

We may well have THE winter storm in Texas history upon us with widespread heavy snow and most of the state below zero the following morning. This is preceded by a major icing event in North Texas tonight and a light event Saturday. Then followed by more frozen precip later next week. I hope people statewide are preparing for what could be a devestating event which could cause major disruptions to infastructure. Travel may be impossible for some in North Texas from tonight through late next week. I sure hope there are not widespread power outages tonight as that would greatly exacerbate an already dangerous situation.

Models unanimous in showing a massive snowstorm Monday fueled by strong, moist air from 900 to 300mb. This tied with severe Arctic air at the surface will lead to 12 to 24 hours of moderate to heavy snow north of I-10 with icing along and south of I-10.

Good luck with that trip, its gonna be a tricky trip if it even possible.

And now 0Z GFS is showing me at -6 Tue morning with WC of -18. The ICON and GFS have been the most consistent models on this event so I have to give them credence but sheesh.

Now the ICON is showing the big snows followed by some of the coldest temps in Texas history. All of this on top of the icing issues over the next few days.