aggiegeog

Another near freezing highs day. Lindale is getting some flurries this afternoon from the band along I20 across E TX.

For Tyler, 2025 could well show up in the record book the same number of times as 2021 between record lows and record low high. 2021 had 5. 2025 has a legit shot at 5 from this event. Today's record low high was 31 and we had a high of 24. It is already down to 18 so tomorrow's record low of 19 will fall at midnight. Tomorrow's record low high is 36, that likely also falls. Friday's records of 19 and 35 will be close but are attainable. Today was also the latest ever sub 26 high. Basically this event is only rivaled by 1978 and 2021 for cold outbreaks around this time period of the 3rd week of Feb.

Widespread flurries across the N half of the state today. Areas south of favored lakes could see a couple inches otherwise just flurries and mist. Temps across N and NE TX will max out in the mid 20s with continued flurries. Tonight will clear out and wind will die down allowing temps to fall into the 5-15 range and some near the Red River that get snow today may go sub 0 tonight. Many will stay below freezing tomorrow and a few may stay below freezing Friday also.

The cold next week could shatter records especially if we do get some snow. North of I-20 may see -0s with widespread 0s. Record low mins and record low maxes are likely to fall as this event is just after the worst of 2021. Breaking 1978 and 2021 records is big.

Up and down temps for the next few days. Arctic front crashes through on Tue bringing a chance of winter precip through the day on Wed.

We are looking at a solid chance for an icing event across N TX mid week next week. The cold air initially arrives this weekend with further pushes through the week. Some chance for this to a be an ice storm for a large portion of the state, but we won't know how deep into the state until this weekend. Good chance that the remainder of the month stays cold with substantial blocking over the Arctic and well placed ridging out west. Enjoy these last couple warm days as those will be unlikely north of I-10 after this weekend until March.

Agreed this is a classic Southern Plains cold and stormy pattern which has extended staying power.

Blizzard warning from Beaumont to Lafayette.

Not many flakes but what is falling is perfect little stars.

Lift has looked like it will be better across E TX into N LA. This evenings flurries and dusting is just bonus, few hours before good stuff gets here.

Flurries are much more widespread this evening than was expected. Hoping this indicates a more moist 850mb than modeled.

Some mPing reports north of DFW so likely some flurries reaching the ground.

Over the past 20 years i have pride to myself on winter weather forecasting in E TX. These northern stream clippers are my favorite kind of system. Models and professionals always miss them. Upper lows are fun wet snow. Gulf lows are frustrating. Clippers are great because expectations are low but many surprise. They didn't need moisture just Arctic air as they create enough forcing to overcome dry air.

We need to watch the 700mb front and moisture at 850mb. Stronger front means more lift and more humid 850mb mean less snow wasted to evaporation. I honestly am not really liking any of the short range models on this one. I guess the WRF models are doing decently. Canadian seems to have the best handle on this event from the start going back a week. So WRF, Canadian and Hi Res Canadian. GFS like always is playing the game of catching up in the last day to not bust horribly. NAM is looking like trash this go around. ICON and others have never figured this event out.

SHV expanded WWA north to all counties south of I20. I expect further expansions of WWAs for N and NE TX later today depending on obs this evening. Where the bands set up across N and NE TX I expect wet bulbing to send temps into the low 20s and some spots could get a quick inch or maybe more.