KPITSnow

The euro had a huge expansion of the western precip field..put the one inch qpf contour into AGC.

The gradient is pretty extreme on this. Monroeville could have ten inches while moon gets 6.

I think we need to remember this front end is a bit of a bonus. I don’t think the truly significant stuff was supposed to start till 2-4 today.

The HRRR went from 3-4 inches but is now spitting out NEARLY 10 inches. GFS Was the best in awhile. Ukie was west. Point being looks like o melted down last night for no reason.

Hoping the radar can fill in a bit. I am seeing that dry slotting especially north of the city. South hills looks great right now.

Honestly I think the radar looks pretty still.

McKnight road starting to become snow covered so I’d imagine side roads suck

So latest gfs, mast one to really look at, is significantly better.

Precip shield be larger could be good for us.

It’s actually coming down nicely in the north hills. Better rates and earlier than I expected.

Usually our best hope in these situations.

We live in a terrible place for big snowstorms.

The NAM runs actually aren’t bad. About .8qpf. At this point I’d run with that happily. If I get 6+ won’t complain a bit.

It still only gives like .5 an inch of QPF so I don’t think it is warmth cutting our totals. People kept telling me to look at short term models and right now they aren’t great either....the RAP is also only showing a 4-6 type event.

I think the disappointment isn’t the fact we get two 3+ storms before Christmas...it is that it is continuing the pattern of us getting 4 or 5 inches while 100 miles a way they get 12-18 inches. If this was a clipper (we even get those anymore?) it would be great but it’s painful watching others get a historic storm while we have to be happy with an advisory level event.

Anyone have the 6z euro snow maps, mainly the 10:1 maps?

The 6z euro continues the trend of cutting back...kuchera totals are 7-8 inches in AGC (had been over 10 forever) and that means 10:1 are likely closer to 6. given how bad the HRRR is I just don’t think this event is going to go well give how everything has been trending. Plus, Climo...it always wins out here. edit: just saw the euro qpf map...about .6-.7 inches from west to East in the county. have to hope at this point that we get lucky to get under good banding...otherwise I’ll be really happy if I just get 6 inches or more. Sticking with my 2-4...maybe 3-5.

It only goes out to 18 but it is also done snowing in the model by then also. the RAP is not nearly as bad though and is pretty solidly 6-8 inches. I still think this has massive bust potential given that a 25-50 mile shift is going to be the difference between ten inches and 3.

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=HRRR&area=US-NE&ps=area# Take a look at hour 18 totals. Putrid.

? I see it giving us 3-4 inches at most?

What I really want to know is how the modeling can be so consistently wrong in our area so close to events. How many times have we been within 24-48 hours of an event being modeled for a significant storm only to see it be reduced to either nothing or an advisory level event?

Good luck to you all....once again we are going to be getting our 4 inches while you guys get smoked.

The GFS is a disaster. Maybe 2-4 inches. It literally never fails. It is going to be so much fun to watch the returns die as they come over the mountains lol.

We have had one 10+ storm on March 21st 2018, and haven't had a foot plus storm since 2010. It has been brutal.

We had a nice 7 inch storm at the start of December, but those are what we get...our overperfomers get us 7 inches when we are forecast to get 4...meanwhile if you drive 50 miles in any direction from Pittsburgh really you can find places that have had 12-18 inch events when we haven't had a 12 inch storm in 10 years+