KPITSnow

I am not a Steelers fan haha. I am rooting for KC to destroy them (not so much I have another team, steelers fans are grating) And I'm being greedy. I want 15+. PIT does not get set ups like this often.

Noticed that here too. The NAM had been one of the most aggreessive models with slotting us down here, but the 3K did not get us in the dry slot at all so a big jump.

NAM hires does not dry slot us at all, which is a solid trend as the NAM has been one of the most aggressive models in slotting us.

For steeler fans, a power outage might be better. They have no shot lol. And no, this isn't negativity, I am not a steeler fan.

The HRRR pops 30+ inches for anyone on the southern shore of Lake Erie haha. Have fun up there guys!

And yeah, looking at it more the axis on this run was absolutely 25 or so miles further east. One more tick like that and we will also be looking at 15 inches possibly.

we are just going to have to watch where it pivots. December of last year we were close to being dry slotted but it pivoted just in time.

It does look like the 12z was slightly east of the 06z with the deform band placement.

damnit. this is going to really honestly suck. There is always the chance it pushes back and we miss the slot, but every model now puts highest totals about 50 miles north and west of us. We would still get 10 inches though so not a terrible consolation.

It would be OK, but I think it will be really irritating if Youngstown gets 18 inches and we miss a historic pittsburgh storm by 25 or 50 miles. The issue is every single model basically is showing that band setting up just a little too far west. It would be nice if just once we truly jackpotted.

Woke up and checked the HRRR at 06z. It is drifting the wrong way with the dry slot. It now gets us into it and places the main defo band about 30-50 miles too far west. It still shows us getting a foot but there is a pretty sharp gradient between 15 inches and getting less than 8 inches if we dry slot wrong. NAM also continues to not budge on us slotting and having mixing issues. Just al high to depend on where the pivot happens but it will be incredibly painful if we dry slot for hours while Youngstown sits in the deform and gets a foot and a half,

This really does have the potential to be a top 10 all time storm for us

AHem, you might want to check that spelling of our city.

No, I'm dumb. The Hi res is a step in the right direction though.

Yep, I think you have to toss the regular NAM. It is literally out in left field by itself. It might show a hit to detroit and Indianapolis at 6z

And for reference the Deform band on the HRRR set up right over Pittsburgh essentially, and on the NAM it is like almost from Dayton to Cleveland. Just a casual 200 mile difference 24 hrs out.

I edited it. Meant to say NAM. HiRes nAM is still coming in for me.

Actually, the NAM is still pretty bad. Amazingly it has the best snows almost out in freaking dayton OH, and going through Youngstown and Cleveland. It's absurd there could be a 200 mile difference between the HRRR and NAM. Luckily the NAM is massively on its own.

I'm not looking at the hires but for us here it showed us immediately mixing, then slotting, and getting like 5 inches of snow. We still slot but the mixing issues seem to be way less.

I think the NAM is caving..... Edit: Not fully but it is going to be drastically better.

HRRR verbatim showing places approaching 20 inches just west of the city.

Bubbler also said it is still snowing at this point lol.

Lol, how much does that say? We are literally the bullseye.

This literally might be one of the most epic model runs I've ever seen for here, especially only 24 hours out from the storm.

I'm way behind, again because I am just using the slow as hell NWS site, but the HRRR has 5 inches by 10pm, with hours still to go.