FXWX

Lol... thumbing through the KOCIN book(s), it's all about eastern Canadian confluence & high-pressure centers sitting off to our north! If this is in anyway a hint of the winter trend, I'll take it...

I would never think anything is a lock and I'd bet on Euro being a bit drunk. But I always look for classic check list items to boost confidence. Right off the bat, it is sweet seeing that high pressure system modeled location. No high pressure center or a poorly placed one have been the bane of recent winters

Given the time of the year; folks would be happy with one half or even one third of the Euro numbers!!!

Nope to test of AI... Like all other model schemes, they win 1 battle but lose the war... The Euro AI has missed far forecasts than it hits. If it were to hit this forecast, it would mean little to using it for future events.

Yes!

Even some crappy Decembers had a decent early snowfall prior to going to crap by midmonth. Many of the long-lead forecasts had a decided cooling for late November into early December with at least a hint of a snow threat, appear to be following script. Unfortunately, those same forecasts call for a moderating trend and lowering of the snow potential heading into mid/late December. I've learned over the years, significant early December snow, for at least SNE, does not always bode well for what follows. This is not a prediction just some thoughts after decades of monitoring... I've always liked late December as the best time to see a significant winter pattern shift.

Thanks Wiz... Agree with the mobile situation, but rarely travel out of the office without a laptop... You are correct about the arrogance of a couple of the bigger companies. I actually had the contact ask me why I would like to see the layout of the 700 mb vv or advection fields!!!

It's the only site I've never played around with... Thanks, going to give it a look...

COD is probably the best free site; Pivotal is decent and the upgrade to premium is relatively cheap. That being said, WxBell is my default but price keeps ticking up. I'd love to see a site that combines the best features on COD, Tropical Tidbits, and WxBell. I've asked WxBell about adding some of the cross-sectional options, vv, advection and/or fronto maps found on COD / Tropical Tidbits. But they have never responded positively. I find Weather.us to be tedious.

While I agree in general, we all know the reality of this social media driven hype machine. If only, folks would concentrate on trends, particularly the upper levels. But the desire for click bait folks to post surface progs, and/or precip totals at long leads has polluted so many of the discussions. I would be perfectly happy if the available models after day-10 showed only the 500 mb level.

"How can they call it an upgrade when the 2 most recent "upgrades" did not lead to a meaningful score improvement???

Earlier post by me was inaccurate... I was looking at the boy's bracket, not the girls... Stonington boys beat Seymour...

I thought Seymour lost to Stonington, Tuesday? The vast majority of times it comes down to defense!

yep... that's if we can get a solid 2 weeks... most recent winters the storm window has been 5-7 day period...

Like the last several years, it will come down to whether or not we can time the relatively short cold periods with an active storm pattern...

Need to get this snooze-fest of pattern more active in November... At this time, I'm not looking for snow or cold, but just want some widespread precipitation events to track... Not overly optimistic into mid-November? The number of flaccid frontal passages we've seen across SNE has been unreal...

Nov 26, 2014... Day before turkey day... Evening pic.

https://www.facebook.com/share/fNxXT3YX2x74JqBd/

Agree... Anyone chasing fantasy cold trends hinted at by a MJO forecast should relax and enjoy the weeks of AN conditions...

Stunningly nice on 495 S heading to the Cape!

Burlington CT

Agree... Final outcomes, none of which are good, somewhat dependent on ERC and tidal timing.

Hey John... good friend and a former student of mine is the MIC at NWSFO Tampa... Convo with him last night was pretty alarming!

Kev... You make my head hurt....lol. I must of missed the lecture on its a known meteorological "fact" that storms are guided near shore by coasts? If only it was that simple; we could save a crap load of money currently being spent on sophisticated models. Also trying to use personification "they seek" when dealing with final track is a bit much. In certain cases, there are relatively small shifts or wobbles as the low level circulation interacts with the coastline, but they are very minor and the basic track is always governed by the large scale flow above and around the circulation. There are many coastal areas that seem to have a protective hurricane shield, but it's the climatological history of the large scale upper level flow that protects them, not the shape of the coastline.

Why didn't the shape of the coastline protect them in 1848 and 1921? The actual shape of the coast has little to no impact on landfall track, it always comes down to short term steering currents that for a variety of reasons have favored orientations & alignments not tied to coastal plain shape.