FXWX

Litchfield City on into the high terrain areas of far western/northwestern HFD cty and then Northern Tolland on into northern Windham counties would be where I'd expect advisory statements.

Yes it does... And makes lots sense...

That's why the issuance of maps for many areas has to accompanied by a detailed topo discussion; better yet an in-person phone conversation. There is almost no way to accurately depict the gradient across your area; same for portions of western & west-central CT.

Just under an inch here in Burlington, CT!

I've been looking at the Probabilistic Precipitation Portal Maps (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/) ... Their blend of models for the maps is shown in the attached text image. A combo of these maps and the HREF suite is my starting point, which I then tweak. The occasionally have a bias of being a bit too conservative but overall do a decent job.

Agree... Waiting game right now... Some consistent signals that it happens far enough east focus best rates from northeast CT on north and east into interior eastern Mass.

While I would remain cautious about some of increasing totals in this morning's short range guidance, there is a solid trend towards juicing this system up, as noted by Wiz... Probably going to be a 2-3 hour period of enhanced rates across parts of the region?

Multiple levels of sw wind at that!

We will see... Would be perfectly happy to see a normal to modestly above normal (+1 to +3) mid to late December... But fear the ability of our current climo trend to bust warmer than expected!

All I know is, the last several winters have almost always seen extended period moderating periods verifying even warmer than originally modeled, while modeled cold periods ended up shorter than first expected? This repeating winter theme is getting old. I know right now the Pacific looks different than the last couple of Decembers, but the same scenario is in play? Hopefully trends move in a more favorable direction for the midmonth period, but who knows!

Sometimes bigger is not better? Puns aside, I'm not always a fan of highly anomalous features trying to deliver. Potential to squash a storm event in increases. Fun to watch for sure, especially compared to lots of failed early winter patterns of late.

Wind Chills looks a bit cold on T-Day morning in the BOX Hartford County update... LOL THANKSGIVING DAY RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH, BECOMING NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 120 BELOW IN THE MORNING.

Hopefully it doesn't go the 1989 route!

With lots ensemble support for a colder than normal start to December, there are 2 questions; 1 how stable will it be and will consistent storm activity materialize during the cold period? The medium to long range ensemble data has been growing more adamant about the early month pattern being pretty stable and possibly have legs. Whether or not it stays that way or folds heading into the 2nd week heading toward mid-month is far from certain. Storm wise, lots of uncertainty but I'll take my chances compared to the last few Decembers.

not sure...

Even when Walt misses a bit, he's better than most...

The head of DPW emailed me around 4:30 to let me know they had to scrape hilly sections of northwestern Danbury when a hvy band went through. Was very localized. Was all about rates being hvy enough to allow for accumulation on already slushy road surfaces.

Danbury out plowing the northwest side of town...

Take a look at Pitt / Browns game

Yes... Makes me wonder how effective it will be... Not sure...

Pretty interesting setup across sw CT / se NY with lots of bust potential both ways...

Yep...

John, assume you are always included! Lol.. thanks for the thoughts...

How you feeling about the far eastern NY / Western CT high terrain areas during the predawn hours Friday? Crazy model discrepancies? Erring on the low side of the model consensus, but kinda has now-cast type of feel to it?

There has been chatter for several weeks now that a window would open for a threat either right at the end of the month or very early in December. Folks who are on here daily should have seen that discussed multiple times from multiple posters. I mentioned this to my clients at least 3 weeks ago. I thought the early November warmth would linger a bit longer, but the colder look to very late November very early December is no surprise, nor is the potential for our first true winter threat. Right now, it appears the late Nov/early Dec calls are right on the mark. The question then becomes is this one and done deal that quickly revert back to an AB pattern? I did not have much hope for the mid-December period and have been favoring an AB trend after the early December cold period. There is some support for it to linger a bit longer than I first thought, but I would give it a couple of more eps runs. I noted the other day, I am not a big fan of early December being a great indicator of things to come. I'd be happy if just the position of the modeled high-pressure system next weekend were to be something that gets repeated a few times this upcoming winter.