FXWX

Likely an under-performer (at least for CT)... Regardless, you still have to be wary of these setups and just not dismiss their potential because of past failures. It does bother me that so many posters love to bash the NWS, and others, when these types of events fail. They always carry a high degree of uncertainty, and at least in the private sector, those uncertainties are conveyed to the client. But the client and in the case of the NWS, the public, have to be made aware of the high-end risk, were the setup to verify. Just dismissing a potential disruptive wind event because they may have failed in the past is not the answer. Just like a snow forecast, if the biggest numbers in the range don't verify, the public thinks it was a failed forecast. I don't have time to read every AFD, but the I did note confidence levels were discussed and as one might expect there was concern about error potential. Like the NWS snow forecast graphics that state low-end amounts, expected amounts and then high-end amount, I usually state the possible range of max wind gusts to my clients during conference calls... Many want to know what the high-end risk levels are, even though they will mostly make decisions using the most likely gusts values. I think it is also imperative to note to the public that most damaging wind events in SNE are scattered events; rarely are they widespread. You can have a few trees smash into houses across the state or a car or two get crushed, but that is still only a "scattered" event. The problem is there is no way to forecast the specific town or street that will be impacted. So, we end up with a generic forecast that implies widespread issues but is almost never widespread. As Wiz chatted about earlier, there is a lot of communication issues in play, and nowcast trends need to be posted on a regular basis to keep the general public up to speed as you move into the threat period. Folks on this forum are constantly monitoring the trends and can often see where things are heading. But the vast majority of the public does not have the time or ability to assess weather data trends. I know the NWS is overwhelmed on days like this, but a county-by-county storm trends update product (short and concise; ex. wind threat decreasing for county X, or wind threat still high for county Y) that could scroll across the bottom of the tv set or be read by any radio announcer to allow the latest trends to be heard by the public would be great. Today we thought if we warmed into the 60's, we would be in trouble... But not the case this time around given the eastward trend of the lvl jet.

That's the NWS GIS Viewer page... when it first loads for the first time it will show the world... Zoom into the region you want to view, change the background to your preference. Open up layers and go to "real time observations" and click on it. From there you have a ton of options to display, and when you open it back up it will remember your area of interest and what you last viewed. I keep one page bookmarked with the Metars (you can chose any or all of the parameters) Put it in station model display and pick parameters and networks for the data. Below is my metar display using NWS/FAA sites, weather, temp, wind and gusts. The earlier graphic I posted I had limited the display to gusts, but chose all networks, not just metars. Lots of layers to pick from and I use it as my primary metar display, as well as my gust display. Once you get a display you like it will remember it, or you can bookmark it. Auto updates every 1 to 5 minutes.

Current wind strongest gusts focused on southeastern CT on across southeastern Mass & Cape...

59 here; but almost no wind... wind trends appear to be focusing on far eastern and/southeastern CT more and more, along with southeast Mass, RI and the Cape. Given trends would not be shocked if only eastern CT gust to 50 mph with the vast majority of the western and central CT staying in the 40 to 45 mph range. Always a nowcast at this stage of the game, but trends certainly are less impressive for much of central & western CT... Euro has bailed and HRRR has been adamant about this being an eastern CT eastward threat.

For sure there is fear; with both sides of the issue... under-react and or over-react! I do wish the NWS would use more terms like "scattered" or isolated" and not just statements that give the impression the damaging winds will be widespread. I try to use qualifying words about the coverage of the disruptive or damaging impacts so folks can get a sense of how widespread or not widespread it will be, which they then can incorporate into their decisions.

My 2-cents, since I deal with about 100 school districts here in CT... there is no consensus on what to do on days like this... A multitude of folks are involved with the decision... In some towns, the issuance of a Warning or Advisory is sufficient to cause a delay, early D or outright cancellation. Wind and flash flood events, given their highly variable nature in terms of impacts at anyone location, the decision is compounded by the fact that most of the time only a few streets are impacted, but those that could produce deadly results. Most schools will not dismiss early today, but all of them have been assessing the issue, and getting feedback from local emergency managers, police and DPW personnel. Some folks are just too uncomfortable with a worse case outcome and will dismiss early. But even that is an issue. Most bus runs take 90 minutes to 2 hours to complete... trying to time when a tree might fall is impossible. The bottom line is that these decisions are not just made willy nilly... Input comes from multiple sources and the final decision is made with those inputs in mind. We had a rotten tree bring down wires yesterday in an eastern CT district. Not weather related, but people still complained about it! I have been on conference calls and email chains for a few days now, and trust me people are trying to do the best they can knowing full well the inherent complicated nature of disruptive / dangerous weather events...

Ok... Agree with eastern Plymouth county thoughts. While many of the modeled maps are clownish, I think you are in a good spot to rip 55 to 60 mph just overhead; whether or not it will get to ground level is always the challenge. The the forecasted warming of the sfc & boundary layers certainly won't hurt!!! Probably will be able to hear the LLJ ripping by a few hundred feet overhead. Meanwhile folks with anemometers on a 10 ft pole attached to their deck will complain they never busted 25 mph.

As the crow flies, how far are you from the water?

I think so... At ~1,200', I expect to roar... Even better no trees near my property!!!

I think lowest of elevations 40-45 mph, 500 to 1,000' 45-50 (low grade risk 50+); 1,000+ ft 50+ mph; coastal plain (especially eastern) 60+.

Just getting back to work, and it appears the Euro has joined the wind party...

No clue what any storm would look like yet, but do like the fact that we continue to see signals for an active pattern during the last 7 to 10 days of the month... Maybe we ended with just rain across SNE, but potential is there for a colder setup compared to what we have seen during recent past holiday periods has me intrigued... Like many recent years, we likely won't be dealing with a long duration cold pattern anytime soon, but there will be windows for some "well-timed" events, if luck is on our side?

I wish it was just stupidity... Unfortunately it's designed deceit!!!

Thanks Wolfie? Love the location... 1,200' elevation, few hundred feet from Litchfield cty border... Do you teach in Southington?

Certainly a great wintery feel & look!

Nevermind it was sitting right there all the time.... Don't know how my aging eyes missed it...

Been trying to find that snow report graph... Is that somewhere on the BOX homepage?

Can you share the link for this product?

5.5"

Better luck next time...

4.5" total now at 1,200' in Burlington, CT

3.0" here at 1,200'

Desktop is working on mine...

Tough call as to how far north you have to go up the I-91 corridor to get more than a slushy cover or an inch?

Litchfield City on into the high terrain areas of far western/northwestern HFD cty and then Northern Tolland on into northern Windham counties would be where I'd expect advisory statements.