FXWX

My take exactly!!!

Yes indeed... that's certainly the look to me...

All I can do is tell folks what the pattern looks like to me moving forward based on large-scale pattern and modeling trends, as well decades of experience. I'm in the business of telling clients what I think; nothing more / nothing less. I'm not trying to forecast a specific qpf number or root for or dismiss snow potential. I would say my confidence level is at least moderate. I am also not saying we are looking at 5 or 10 inches of qpf over the next 2 to 3 weeks, but I will say I will be surprised if the amounts of qpf stay as meager as they have been. I have been asked by several contractors over the past few days about the frequency of precipitation events moving forward; strictly for business planning purposes. This is what I have related to them. I understand everyone's frustration with this winter's pattern, but I do believe there was a decent signal that it would struggle in the qpf department given the late summer / fall trends. And while I would not suggest we are ready to get off and running into a long-lasting way above normal precip pattern for the late winter and/or spring period, I do think the short/medium term pattern looks more promising for active weather. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I can't tell a client its just going to stay BN qpf just because it has been, when the pattern appears to be shifting...

Beg to differ Kev... I think the emerging layout of the east PAC and N.A. moving forward into and through early / mid Feb argues, in my mind, for normal to above normal qpf. Note I am not calling for above normal snow... But I do like the signal or more frequent qpf events that "collectively" will come close to or possibly exceed normal by a bit. I like the potential for multiple SWFE's; possibly with some weak redevelopment events... And I would not dismiss the threat for decent snow/mix/ice events for the region, as a whole with the exception of the coastal plain. Could I be wrong? Sure! But the evolving pattern is not going to mimic our most recent 6 to 8 week pattern.

I think it should be "Shots of Cold Air"! Cold shots of air is ass-backwards?

Always wary of overnight and predawn events regardless of lightness... Everyone has been advised and will be in touch with their DPW... Even a light coating on cold road surfaces during the overnight / predawn hours makes them nervous... Would expect minimal impacts if crews are proactive...

If, big if, there is any widespread 1+ coverage, it's northern CT....far southern / coastal CT seems unlikely to get measurable...

Yep

Actually, nothing out of the ordinary for many winters when you get a warm frontal passage due to the passage of a strong cutter; during which a brief (few hours) surge of warmth occurs; often its +50, and occasionally its 60+. Even during cold winters there is often a cutter or two that features warmth overwhelming the region; especially southeastern NY & SNE.

Took a stroll through the casino yesterday and that was the same sentiment I heard from the folks crying as they sat in front of the slots!!! Lol

Yes sir! That's what I look for!

Yep...

Most of the time the final solution is a mix of pieces from several models. Folks fall in love with a particular model and facts be dam they think it performed better than all others... Was the Euro perfect? No! But when was was all said and done, it's 72 hr inward trends were best...

Agree... Amazing how even after an event there is debate about how a model performed. RGEM certainly didn't perform well...

5.5 Burlington CT

4.5"... 21 f

Too bad it's hauling along at break-neck speed...

Thanks; for some reason I keep in forgetting the have link on homepage of BOX...

Where do you see this graphic of running totals...

0z GFS keeps the eastern Mass love going!

Agree Tip... If that's your concern on Jan. 19th during a generally cold period, it might be time for a break. Just be happy we have a moderate event to track...

The last thing the vast majority of the forum needs to be worried about is surface temps. Any marginal surface temps at onset will vaporize quickly... mid-January during a long running cold pattern with solidly cold / frozen ground surfaces losing much to melting at onset is not an issue.

Win some; lose some!!! https://x.com/i/status/1880070171982778694

Yes, yes, and yes.

I hear ya... general trends are all I deal with; there are no (zero) experts when it comes to the long-range stuff...