FXWX

From this point on, focus on 850, 700, 500 structures / trends...

Reading comprehension is not a high point with the general populus. All you have to do is listen to or read the comments after any snow event. If the forecast was 8 to 12 inches, everyone who received less than 12" complains the forecast was wrong! Lol

I assumed it went without saying!

Tip... A successful winter posting style in this forum usually involves using one or more of the following terms; nape, increasing sun angle, increasing daylight period, winter is "a percent % of your choice and/or fake cold... Lol

The drone of posts about sunlight periods and increasing sun angle as we move through the winter season gets soooo tiresome! It's as if folks have zero knowledge of the winter season in New England... I'm sure most of it is to just bust balls but seeing it year after year gets beyond tiresome. As almost everyone knows, the biggest snows and coldest weather almost always (99 % of the time) occurs after solar min...Maybe there should be a year-round thread devoted just to sun angle and/or sunlight period for those who feel the need to post about it; lol...

Better than worrying about suppression and/or phasing concerns... Over-running with some secondary formation potential would be fine with me at this point.

I believe the real transition to the great stretch began during the 1/22-27/2015 period. I recall a highly disruptive freezing rain event around Jan 17 that caused nightmare driving conditions across srn CT & I-95 corridor...

It is getting quite remarkable. I think the overall storm pattern, in general, was well modeled, meaning we knew a stormy period would evolve across the central and eastern U.S. during early / mid Jan. I was not shocked by the first system missing due to suppression given the blocky pattern off to our north and northeast. In fact, there were many posts about the suppression concern as we headed into this pattern. That being said, now we a failed phasing event, which is always a delicate dance, but can't we catch a break! This second threat period was seen coming over 7 days ago, and it just another kick in the ass that it appears to be a big dog failure. Of course, there is always a chance I might need to eat crow if a Hail Mary shift occurs over the next 72 hours. Sooner or later one of these events will blow up in our face?

Off topic... But if you want to see some ugly sh*t, tune into the live stream of the Palisades Fire... NBC 4 out of LAX...

Big gradient across the Simsbury / Granby and adjacent areas. Northwest to Southeast gradient as you head from northeastern Litchfield county southeast across Simsbury into western edge of the Farmington Valley.

I'm good with that consensus. Gfs a bit east, maybe a bit weaker, and euro comes northwest.

Like has been mentioned already, this a case where there may be little or no middle ground. A phasing and it's kaboom! But a lack of phasing means a minor or a non-event. The phasing or non-phase options are separated by miniscule 500 mb differences! One way or the other I would not be shocked if there's not consensus until 0z tomorrow night?

Correction: A few years ago, I would have been concerned... not so much anymore... at least not to the same degree as during the old days when the king was truly the king. Maybe it's right this time around but my worry when it's in dispute with other models is no longer as great!

A few years ago, I would have been concerned... not so much anymore... at least not to the same degree as during the old days when the king was truly the king. Maybe it's right this time around but my worry when it's in dispute with other models.

That's exactly my feeling... This is either a big dog or zippo event. Given the poor performance of the euro in the day 4 to day 6 range over the past couple of winters, it doesn't bother me at all where the euro is right now.

Actually think that's a distinct possibility! Almost like the 18z gfs is bit of an over correction of its recent more westward trend compared to the flat euro. While a complete phase could yank this further north & west as this run implies, I'd look for the gfs to trend eastward in its next run. Not sure confluence and blocky nature off to the north may argue for a more south / east track when all is said and done...

I couldn't care less if they never posted the CMC or UkMet again... Seriously, I've never waited to see them before finalizing a forecast! Lol

would think so... when it does, it might be the proverbial dam break!!!

All we can do is look at the extended guidance and comment about how it has historically behaved... nothing wrong with that. I agree that the look is one I would draw up as favorable for winter storm action. If it fails and becomes unfavorable in the coming days, nothing we can do about it... I don't know how many times we can continue rolling the dice without eventually hitting the jackpot...

No worries... It's just all the aliens heading back to their home planet... Probably due to the lack of snow!

Always lots of moving parts in the school decision process. My role is to try to give a solid forecast, highlight and discuss trends, as well as error potential, and most importantly field questions about timing, road conditions, etc... Between 4 am and 5 am I conduct 6 conference calls (mainly by county) with a total of approximately 90 districts; lots of input and discussion between districts. As you know, there are times that some towns feature tremendous variability within the town due to major elevation differences. Some setups are simple and no brainers? Like an event that is underway prior to morning commuter period, or will start later in the morning or afternoon. Most bus rounds take about 2 hours to complete and a lot can change during the 2 hour period. This past Dec. 5 event was interesting in that we had almost 100% agreement on delays, but then there was a period of enhanced snowfall rates in some areas between 6:30 and 8 am at which time several DPW groups were not confident they could get all roads in good shape by the bus roll time, which forced some delays to be converted to closures even though snowfall ending time had not changed... I thought the article today did a good discussing many of the issues in play...

Give him another 2 years of these winter trends and he will upgrade to "f*CK this sh*t" as he slams the iPad on the floor.. lol

I don't disagree with your reasoning, so it comes down to personal confidence that the probability is high enough to insert it into a 6 day forecast? At this time, I would say no. That's for a public forecast. In discussions with my private clients (dpw and or maintenance contractors) I've thrown that out there as a low threat period but have not been bullish. If a northerly trend were to develop over the next 48 hours, I would then elevate the concern; still minor though.

Well, almost anything is possible, but if you were a forecaster who was responsible for a "public" forecast, how would you word your forecast? Is the possibility high enough to insert into the forecast??? You need to quantify the potential for the public get a sense of confidence? How would you quantify the threat for 1-3" on Monday? Is it great enough to insert into a public forecast? And remember, once you say the possibility exists for 1 to 3", the vast majority of the public, only see the word Snow and 3"??? Is the potential high enough to insert into the forecast? I'm ok with saying a "low-grade" risk of some light snow exist but would not mention any amounts.

Forecasting these nw to se tight gradient with solid mixing events is so much easier to verify than when we chase those pain in the ass southerly high wind events that often have inversion issues.