FXWX

I was just going to post that... nice graphic and think it is a solid call right now with time for tweaking in the am...

Interesting to note that while there are some hints of an eastward trend, a loop of the Northeast radar composite nicely shows showers across central & western NY heading west/northwest; strongly implying the modeled tug or bend back to the northwest as Henri is likely as it approaches LI.

Hey Scott... I know you in particular have been hitting the pressure gradient or lack thereof hard with respect to the apparent confined / non-expanding wind field as Henri comes north into SNE. That appears to be the case and it will be interesting to see if that is being correctly model, or there ends up being a bit more expansive than currently shown. The 925 wind field trends certainly suggest the lack of a tight gradient on its eastern flank will decrease the size of the damaging wind threat east of the track. My comment was more related to just frequent comments about model track shifts with only little note of the surrounding large-scale pattern trends. But I have noted your correct assessment of the gradient issue and its relationship to apparent less than normal wind expansion. Certainly not a classic New England hurricane pattern with a wide open south to north flow channel sucking a storm into SNE. More of a baby Sandy look. I'm not on here all that frequently and likely missed others commenting about the pattern trends & gradient issue.

Just my 2-cents, but way too much emphasis on every tiny track or intensity change on every 6 hour model run. Not enough emphasis on the trends of the strength and physical layout of the west Atl. ridge to Henri's north and east, as well as the behavior of the OV upper level trough. Henri does not exist in a vacuum. It will only go where other large-scale features allow it to go. Closely monitor the position and changes & pressure tendencies of the Atlantic ridge's isobaric pattern. You have to continually ask yourself, does the modeled track make sense given the layout of the large-scale surface and upper air pressure / height pattern.

Yes... nothing to organize & sustain t-storms; these are pure pulse / air mass cells. Weakening is not related to any sea breeze influence; air feeding into the cluster is upper 80's with +70 dp. Would not be surprised by a sneaky outflow boundary or two allowing a couple of additional cells to pop...

Agree...

Hmmm... could it be related to GW / HC issues some folks on a particular wx forum have been talking about for years? lol...

Well, its not my forecast... I only monitor sst and modeling trends. I was only commenting on the fact that the CPC discussion didn't indicate a strong event was likely. I leave enso forecast up to folks with a heck of a lot more expertise in that field than I have. Given we are only in mid-summer, I would never rule anything out.

Over the years, I've never been overly worried about a weak La Nina; they can workout ok for New England. Trying to simplify a winter outlook based almost solely on the enso is foolhardy, especially given the recent trend of winter enso events not adhering to many of the rule of thumb winter composites. Old rules may not be as valid, as we once thought???

Didn't see anything in their discussion indicating strong event? Modeling trends are mainly on the weak side overall, which has been the expectation for quite a while now...

Normal is low 70's...

The road temp question is always misrepresented and not assessed correctly by many... rates always win-out. Even last night with glorified snow showers and patchy areas of steady light snow we had to send out trucks to treat high elevation roads here in Burlington, as solid coating occurred. The potential for big rates easily out-weighs any road temp concerns...

For a few days now, the global schemes have all shown the likelihood of surge of bitter cold moving into southeastern Canada during early March. It is not hard to envision a intensifying Maritimes low combining with a sharpening trough sweeping across southeastern Canada driving a piece of the bitter air mass south into New England. Whether or not the pattern across southeastern CT and the Maritimes allows it to happen is very uncertain. Obviously at this time frame, you bet against it. But I think there is a good chance a bitter cold air mass will indeed move into southeastern Canada. Whether or not it can be propelled southward into New England is an open question. But I certainly would not dismiss it; especially for portions of Northern New England.

3.0" in Burlington at 1,140 ft... Had 2 pic (rule measurements) sent to me from Highland Lake area of Winsted showing 4.5"

The ridgeline from New Canaan to Ridgefield to Danbury getting smoked...

It also puts the brakes on the warming taking temps down a notch or two once it sets in...

That would blast the lower Fairfield County forecast right out of the water...

New 1.2 since 5 pm; just touched 4" mark

Yes... towns that did not pretreat and/or DPW crews were not ready to go; especially across northwestern areas of CT, need time for a full treatment, which takes early dismissals off the table... switched to remote learning day. Many towns were ready to treat and are fine...

~0.4"

Burlington, CT... 1,160'

Rates should overcome low-level warmth... they will waste a bit of qpf, but I would still expect them to verify moderate totals at least.

Steve, what's the url for that site?

Certainly weird looking... lots issues to still be resolved that will greatly impact final totals...

Very much agree with those thoughts... I think yesterday you mentioned looking at the crude E-Wall site Euro maps. I often use that site as a simple overview of the large-scale features and what they imply before I dig deeper with the more "sophisticated" model sites.