FXWX

Thank you... For western CT/MA, I'm not worried about the location of the main fronto... If the inflow verifies, which is a much more predicable item, there will be great snow totals way west of the fronto projection. Even in modest setups, my rule is to always skew it west & north of the fronto zone... In this setup with the projected inflow, it may be hard to get it to stop going west!!!

"Hard to take Euro seriously" is not a hill I would want to die on!

About fking time... Lol

Still riding the Euro layout, but for comfort level I'd love to see a meaningful move closer to Euro by GFS & NAM. Although, as mentioned earlier by someone this morning, gfs upper look appears good enough to produce a Euro solution.

yep!

Cautiously optimistic the pattern is slowly coming together... Would hope (expect) GFS to trend a bit better tonight. Not surprised by the slowing and think that overall trend will help foster a more widespread / high impact event across SNE...

Refresh my memory, which event a few years back had the westward charging hellacious band with TS+++ / Mix precio+++? That one had an incredible snow drift to it... while the band was east of me by several miles, I had S+++ but the radar was empty over my area...

Hey Wiz... I know you are probably just using this as eye candy right, but hope you realize with an incredibly dynamic setup like this, these fronto banding projections have the ability to jump around big time over the next 3 days; even over the final 12 to 24 hours. Given this is based on the GFS, which I suspect is too far east, I'm hedging the main band will be further west; maybe eastern CT into RI & east-central Mass. Do not under-estimate the ability this to build westward... Also, given the tremendous easterly inflow, I'm guessing there will be a significant westward drift to the heavy falling snow across eastern CT that actually improves snow amounts in parts of the CT Rvr valley. I saw that happen once before during one of our other biggies.

It came up either just prior to the Euro run or very shortly thereafter; 40/70 shut it down pretty quick. Whenever modeling slows a slowing down of an East Coast winter storm, the 78 analog is brought up. But, as mentioned by others, synoptically is not even close. 78 had a full capture, stall and loop. It also had a classic banana high at the surfaces stretching from western NY on across southern Canada out into the Atlantic north of the storm. This has nothing of the sort; high pressure is retreating to its northeast, but no wrapping back of the high on across southern Canada; at least not enough to be noteworthy. This will be an attempt at a capture, but in the end, it will only be able to slow its forward motion; probably not get it to fully stall. I would expect this system will always have some forward motion component, even it crawls for a period of time, as it gets tugged a bit north and northwest.

Agree... At this point, I'm locked in mentally for a big regional event with all the normal caveats. From this point on, want to enjoy the forecasting process; fine tune the snowfall prediction, update my predicted impacts for all of my clients across the Northeast based on my take of the 700 mb intensity & track trends; 850 inflow, etc... The coupled jet structure at 300 mb is a classic big deepener signal. Given the lack of big / widespread events this year, I'm want the next 2 or 3 days be a relaxed run-up to a big event so when we get to Friday, I can just step back and watch it unfold.

Couple of things... The other day I suggested there would be a stalling / capture earlier than modeled. I now think the Euro is too fast with it and would expect it to be northeast of what it is now showing. Secondly, I agree that comparisons to 78 need to be tempered; not flushed but tempered a bit, especially as it relates to the point of capture / stall. Third, trying to get very specific about locations of CF, deformation band(s) and related screw zones (relatively speaking) needs to be put on the back burner for a bit until 700 circulation center becomes locked in for a couple of cycles. Lastly, modeled inflow is so intense, I will almost always kick deformation / fronto zones a bit west of modeling.

Yes they did... But when I look at the evolution at 500, my hedge would be an earlier (slightly) stall / capture. Not that it will make a big difference and not trying to suggest the storm will not be monster over a large area of eastern zones... Just right now I'd hedge a bit earlier. Probably meaningless for many areas whether it does or doesn't.

If the volatility / explosive deepening does indeed verify, which seems more likely than not, I would expect the slowing / stalling to actually occur a bit earlier than being model. I would hedge the slowing and explosive deepening occurring a tad further south of where it is modeled.

That's a perfect and optimistic response. Maybe the euro signs a great free agent to save the season.

The again, like Bill Parcells said, "you are what your record says you are!' And right now, Euro is not going to the 2021-22 winter storm forecasting playoffs...

1.5 in Burlington

It is pretty funny that the Euro has become almost unreliable in the 3 (maybe 2) to 10 day range, but its weeklies are looked at as if they have a long track record of being correct, which they don't. They did ok with seeing some of the January cold but have been brutally wrong many times. They also tend to be very unstable. The one thing going for this latest set is that it fits the scenario of many of the La Nina based winter forecasts, which strongly suggested February would trend very warm into the midmonth period before flipping to cold at the end on into March. Probably the biggest thing they have going for them right now, is that they are predicting warmth, which rarely doesn't verify these days.

Yep... I've called it a mini flash freeze; not a dramatic one for sure, but just enough to cause issues, especially with ground temps right under road surfaces running very cold.

Compared to the last system, I'd rather be right here with the mid-level features modeled southeast of SNE; at no time last week did the modeling show the 700-center passing south or even right over us... Given the setup, we could put up with a fair amount of phasing and still be ok... Off topic, but if the Euro has a clue, east-central North Carolina would see a power-wrecking ice storm...

I'm never comfortable betting against Belichick! I find the setup and modeling suite fascinating? It's as if the Euro is somehow trying like hell to correct closer to what the large pattern and analogs suggested days ago, but nobody believes it!

Why not; it's blamed for everything else...

Agree...

Good post about the CIPS grouping for this storm... I tend to not get overly frustrated or pissed off when a storm does not play-out the way I envisioned or forecast... I've been doing this for too many years to get emotionally involved or bitch when a storm forecast trends away from my original thoughts. But this storm, or should I say the modeling trends, have managed to pissed me off a bit. I do a lot of analog assessment (CIPS & Kocin storms) when a major storm seems to have a chance of developing for the Northeast; in particular SNE. This one is frustrating for the reasons you outlined above. The modeled forecasts for this storm just do not follow the history of upper air / surface setups like this? If you go look at the Feb. 14-17, 1958 event, it is almost a perfect overlay at 500 mb & sfc to what is now underway. The CIPS analogs are remarkably consistent in their assessment of what the vast number of similar setups produced. I have rarely seen (probably never) an analog storm pattern show such different outcomes compared to the current suite of modeling, and I find it a bit unsettling. In the back of my mind, I almost expect there to be a flip back closer to the analog outcome. But then I come back to reality and don't see any positive trends on the major modeling trends. This system appears to be one that will almost completely break away from where my analog method steered me...

Too many folks are so busy comparing the minor nuisances of every 6-hour model run that they don't take the time to read and comprehend a very clear-cut statement! Nothing in your original headline & post suggested you were screaming "here comes the monster"...

For those of you with the Kocin / Uccellini Northeast Snowstorms Volume II - The Card book available, check out the Feb. 15-17, 1958 storm. Very close surface and 500 mb match for the pre-storm 48 hours period onward to the day of the event. The result was widespread 9 to 16" amounts across SNE with a heavy deformation band of 20 to 36 inches running northeast across eastern PA, eastern NY on into srn VT / central NH... It was a slower mover than the upcoming event is likely to be, but good features analog match?