FXWX

Yep... With this setup and modeled differences, no need for anybody across SNE to suggest a confident forecast for a couple more days. At this time, I'm just running with the range of possibilities; suggesting a transition event, but pretty strongly staying away from an all or mostly snow event.

I would bet against a complete wipe-out; at least in this area snowpack is very dense.

From what I've seen over the years, Euro can be slow to the party in cold press events... If fact, historically, true cold presses with solid arctic high pressure involved, tend to press more than modeled unless associated with a much stronger low than modeled right now. Back in the day, the old retired NGM was the model of choice in cold press setups...

November 17, 2002 featured a very damaging ice storm that caused big time damage across northwest CT (Litchfield County), the higher terrain areas of western Hartford County and northern New Haven County... Tremendous tree and power pole damage. Started as rain during the afternoon on into the early evening before changing to freezing rain as cold air undercut the milder air sitting across the region; along Rt 69 heading from Bristol into Wolcott there was a stretch of about 10 poles snapped all in a row!!!

This is what it looks like after clean up at 1,160 feet in far western Hartford County (about quarter mile from Litchfield County line) after ~10 inches of snow and frequent wind gusts above 35 mph.

I'm guessing in a storm like this, under-reporting might be a bigger risk than inflated totals? (Assuming folks stay away from obvious drifting areas)

Yes... It had looked for a couple of days like there would be a secondary band further west; I really didn't get into the best part of it. I think srn Hartford, eastern New Haven and Middlesex County had much better rates than I did. The eastern CT band was the sweet spot for CT. Horrible storm to try to measure snow totals, wind and shredded flakes? My guess we are going to see if lots of under reporting due to conditions.

They don't seem to be updating. I had 10" on the far western edge of Hartford County; about a quarter of a mile from Litchfield County line...

Down to 6 degrees here in Burlington!!!

Just tune it out! Your analysis and forecasting efforts are appreciated by the 99.9% of the forum. As you and many areas stated many times, this was, and actually continues to be a challenging forecast relative to banding. Even getting very close to nailing the banding location, which you did, is a feat in itself. Meanwhile my daughter on the Cape has a raging white hurricane in progress...

This a classic pattern breather / reload after an extended cold period ending with a big storm! The reload looks likely to favor central U.S. cold as we move along but unlike last year, I think the Northeast will not have an issue staying normal to occasionally solidly colder than normal... Think of next week as a minor / brief January thaw of sorts...

I agree

Thanks, Will... at least if this goes bad, we will have something to try to blame... I'm just trying to wrap my head around physically how long and effect a dual structure could survive... sounds like it would not be long. Thus, the impact may not be significant.

I'm wondering if we are getting into a bit of over-analyzing? The big footprint pattern aloft has not really changed... We might be so involved with almost model nowcasting an event before it has really unfolded, that we are in a can't see the forest for the trees mentality?

Not an expert on the duel low scenario, but given the incredible potency of the upper levels (500 especially) I'm not sure a duel structure can last long before the surface structure gets consumed / consolidated into one very intense low??? I'm open to being schooled here, but how can a duel structure last under this upper air configuration. As 40/70 inquired, do you have any good historic similarities?

While no one should be slam-dunking the ball yet relative to final outcomes, congrats to TIP for another tremendous job on identifying a medium range major storm threat!!! Well done... Also, this is another case in a long line of storms, most nowhere near as dynamic as this one, that understanding the tendency for mid-level forcing to produce more precip further west than initially modeled, is critical. There will always be concerns about the western extent of mod/hvy precip, and sometimes there will be heart-breaking transitions from tons of snow to very little across short distances. But more times than not you can hedge the mod/hvy qpf west & north of the fronto forcing. As noted above, nothing is a done deal yet with this storm and hopefully all of the positive moves over the past 12 hours or so continue. Now we should all try to mentally slow this down and enjoy the process & evolution of this storm, and not rush the experience to a close!

Is that an approved meteorological term...lol

See... Good things happen to people who are willing to wait and believe in it! Trust your instincts...

No offence taken... It was more about the inference that the ballgame is over for WOR... Hey in the end, it may prove to be correct, but this drumbeat to dismiss this event because the modeled snow gradient appears to remove shot at bigger totals for western areas, as currently stated by quite a few folks, is just not realistic given the nature this storm event. I'm only referencing those that have appeared to have given up. Certainly, concerns are warranted, but throwing the towel in is a bit much... No biggie...

That's only the ones who live and die with modeled snow totals and don't appreciate what a dynamic upper air setup is capable of doing and has done in the past; especially the evolution of that 500 mb low.

It's like watching and trying to time a hurricane's eye-wall replacement cycle. I think the modeling is going to struggle to resolve the duel low structure, but in the end, the incredible jet dynamics will take over quicker than modeled and it will go nuclear...

Here is the 18z Saturday 700 mb fronto prediction from today's 18z euro run... I think we can live with this???

And a very impressive cluster shifting west.

Not really... I still like the basic setup (location & intensity of the mid-level features) and try not to do any knee jerk changes when still 48 to 60 hours of go time. I do fully appreciate what Will has been noting about the southern stream but think there is enough time and wiggle room for this to still pan out very good for most of the area. Reading through the posts, you'd get the impression from some, not most, but some out there that this thing is going east of Bermuda. This will still be KU even... The basic layout fo the 850/700/500, etc... still look more than good to produce a widespread heavy, to locally excessive snowfall. Could western CT/MA end up out of the goods, certainly, but I still love the inflow to take care of that to a large extent... Still too much time to try to get too pessimistic about western arears...

Yes indeed...