FXWX

I think the issuance of specific snow amount maps at this time is unwarranted and does more harm than good. The numbers on the these maps are going to change over the next 2 days, and when they do, all folks are going to remember is how much snow was predicted for their backyard and now it has changed. It leads folks mocking forecasters; they don't care about the reason, all they know is the number change? I am ok with forecasters issuing FIRST CALL outlooks with appropriate caveats. At this stage of the game, I think it is completely acceptable to use general probability terms on maps. Here some of the terms I'm using... Ex. Moderate to High probability of heavy snow of at least 10 inches; Moderate to high probability of seeing less than 10 inches; Moderate probability of seeing excessive snow totals more than 15 inches;. Of course the numbers I'm using are subjective. I fully understand the desire for numbers and the now expected call for media folks to post them. But we posting numbers long before we have reasonable confidence in those numbers verifying. A storm like this is a prime example of why many times you need to play it close to the vest. Again, first call maps like 40/70's with his detailed discussion and caveats are fine, but I guarantee there maps being posted now that will undergo major revisions over the next 2 days. Just some ramblings of an old forecaster; lol

In some ways not shocking at all given the volatile setup... The tiniest of changes with respect to development of the coast low, where the upper level flow tries to capture and bomb it out, as well as any where the best gradient focuses will allow for huge run to run shifts at this range. I won't be surprised if we see more significant shifts until tomorrow's 12z runs. I more wary of a westward trend than an escape east...

I have whole house generator so not worried about power issues...

Just bring snacks!!!

I agree, lol... When I saw Wiz's map I told him to shift his max area to include high terrain areas of far western HFD cty, consider the extreme northern portion of NH cty (Wolcott area were 1000+ ft elevations are in play. The northern parts of Wolcott often plays out like Litchfield cty).

I'm not shocked there are still these messy, convoluted runs... In highly volatile setups with sw energy still moving into and across the western states and trying to resolve capture and retrograde details 3 days down the road, I think we still have another full 24 hours before things truly become consistent. We all would love complete model consensus right now, but it is not going to happen yet.

Watching what today's 3 inch wet snowfall looked like on the trees in my area, if the modeling works out next Tuesday big big power issues!!!!

An even 3.0" here at 1,140 ft in Burlington... Solid snow cover continues...

To me, that's been the amazing aspect of this winter. NO shortage of storms, but horrible antecedent air masses.

I think so...

There are precious few truly region wide spread truly heavy events. Just scan the Kocin book, it's full of big gradients and have & have nots....

Exactly... That lack of a great high and nearby solidly colder than normal air mass is what sets this system apart from several other events. This setup is a kin to a couple of other March or early April events.

I've got a general coating to 2 inches across eastern half of CT, but I think any 2 inch stuff will be mainly hilly areas of Tolland and Windham, maybe far northern new London County. Low elevations are going to see lots of coating to mainly an inch on non-travel surfaces... will revisit tomorrow... Support continues for solid moderate / borderline heavy zone across parts of from eastern NY on into western CT and west-central CT. I do think the juicier that area (western CT) gets, the more likely we will see enough moisture to spill eastward and raise the potential for some 2 to 3" inch amounts east of the river. Just not there yet, but there is some wiggle room.

I do think it will have a significant drop-off once it reaches the river; if not a bit before... focus on western third or half of CT... The dynamics are going to struggle to bodily shift into eastern CT...

Yes... This area, high terrain areas of western HFD county, west and north into Litchfield cty do very well with snow accumulation and retention... I'm less than 1/4 mile from Litchfield City line...

Yes...

I was just thinking that... Could well have smaller scale issue Friday night into early Saturday.

I would not yet try to bullseye the most worrisome zone, but that euro depiction screams a zone of significant tree damage could be in play wherever the real paste job sets up. Could be more than just a small localized area???

If Euro follows GFS 500 mb trends, those will also need to be boosted??? The mid/upper lvl look on the GFS is dangerously close to a big CT hit... especially the higher terrain areas of New Haven, Fairfield, Litchfield and western Hartford counties...

A tad... not a horrible trend at this point...

Agree... maybe a bit south & east of Cape...

Yep... The number of members in the buckshot southeast of the Cape is likely the case of the mean being pulled south and east... Hope to see some narrowing of the goal posts soon; maybe as soon as 0z tonight.

The vast majority of the ens members are south and east of the op... The op would clearly seem to be an outlier at this time...

Happy with this trend in general... As modeled big hit for eastern / southeastern NY, WOR areas on northeast into northeast Mass. Gets dicey for central CT, but room to work with that setup northward into northeastern Mass. Still room for a more amped look that could trend this to more of an Adirondack' s event. Hoping for some stability in future runs of the Euro...

Will mentioned a bit earlier about this event's modeled trends and lack consistency are not like multiple other big dog events; wiggle room is limited. Most of the biggies had much more agreement across the model schemes 5 to 7 days. I say most, not all. There is still plenty of room for this to be a big event. The pattern is certainly not as stable as I would like to see it at this time. I much rather be debating where the best banding is most likely to setup and how transition lines / coastal front issues will impact snow amounts. Watching the uncertainty about how the confluence plays out and whether or not the spike in western ridging will be too much too soon makes it hard to feel good about a classic big dog event. Still plenty of room for some one to get buried but my first sense back a day or two ago was this had a decent chance to feature a widespread heavy snow... Right now, I'm still optimistic for a decent storm but the coverage of the best snows could be more limited to than first anticipated.