FXWX

Clouds breaking across western CT!

Agree on all... sometimes you can get all the ingredients and the cake still doesn't get baked; all you can do is point out the worry and hope for the best in terms of life and property. Although the way this severe weather season has started out for the country, I wouldn't bet against another big / bad outcome...

Still a bit dirty, but the overall setup is very dynamic; wind speeds at multiple levels are at or above levels noted in some of the nastiest of outbreaks... just a quick glance at the SPC meso composite page shows almost all tornado parameters, even their violent tornado composite, covering huge areas... of course, this does not mean it has to happen, but high concern is warranted...

yep... hopefully we get through this without a big hit, but it certainly looks worrisome and falls close to the dates of a couple of historic events... Aprol,4-6???

HIGH RISK zone to be added to a portion of today's tornado risk area...

1.0" in Burlington

Up to 12.5" here in Burlington

Lol

Pic from my friend in Hinsdale, Mass.

I would certainly expect it in your area... They might as well get ahead of the curve and delay or cancel now; coverage of issues likely to expand!

Pretty amazing variability: even if it was well predicted. Nice pic

Several School districts across portions of mainly northern Litchfield County are canceling for Wednesday due to trees and power lines down and some impassable roads...

Snowy scene up on the hill in Burlington. Average snowfall around the yard is 10.5 inches.

Where are you now? Simsbury???

It would be fitting... I'll be happy if western areas hold serve and we get a decent cover across northern Tolland and northern Windham counties. I have so many caveats in my forecast for other areas, I almost don't care at this point... Let's just be done with this! Lol

Lol... I don't know how that can even exist? Can wait to look at 15z 925 mb analysis tomorrow...

Yep... Good call... I've been very frustrated by the marginal air masses over the past 2 or 3 weeks. If we could have had just nice seasonably cold air masses with these storms not only would we already have a nice snow pack but the forecasting would have been relatively stress free. Today's another case of mostly elevation and latitude driven results. We are going to have some towns cancel school with part of the town deep in snow while on the other side of town only some slush and wet roads... Crazy stressful to deal with...

All snow at 1,140 ft in Burlington, CT

Hey Kevin... For this system, I've used a list by county and in most cases have broken the counties up into north / south zones, as well as higher v. lower elevations. Given the tremendous variations expected across short distances due to elevation changes, even within some individual districts like yours; my superintendent groups actually prefer the list range compared to a contoured map in setups like this. My take is a bit more bullish (by an inch or 2) in the central valley zone compared to some other numbers I've seen... For your area, I let the 10-14 inch zone cross the I-84 corridor by a smidge and let 14+ number get a bit closer to the MA/CT border area of Tolland Cty. The most volatile areas I think are the sharp gradients across western Hartford Cty, far northern New Haven Cty and the southern Litchfield Cty into northern Fairfield Cty area. I also think southern Tolland Cty into far northern New London Cty is going to be interesting?

This thing is going to have to be fully underway in terms of sfc low development before these models figure it out... I think they are going to struggle to latch on to a well-defined boundary to focus on; they are constantly chasing some weak signals...

Hate to say it, but one of the issues we collectively have is that there are TOO MANY models to look at! ICON / RAP / 3k NAM / HREF / Reggie 1 & 2... models which we (maybe just me) have little or no faith in. Personally, I don't know the last time I even used the UKMET as a player in my decisions. It's great to debate what they are all showing, but the vast majority of the forecast is going to come from a mix of GFS / Euro / ens info and occasionally some NAM stuff... There may be some folks out there that really get into the RAP and/or HRRR for short range stuff, I use HRRR frequently but almost never beyond 12 hours. I guess sometimes the RAP and HRRR point toward some trends to keep an eye on, but they can be so unstable, its hard to trust them for making major shifts in your forecast thoughts... That being said, it is great for forum chatter...

I've done this a lot of years... this is one of the most challenging / error prone calls I've ever made, not only for the inside 495 area but the western / eastern edges of the CT River Valley area from central CT northward.

4 inches is my worry point for heavy / wet / sticky snow...

That doesn't mean you are wrong? Maybe we are wrong but when something appears off, you have to be wary of the modeled solution... Gut tells me just plot 500 and 700 tracks and ask yourself what normally would happen... That's my starting point.

Yes... As he noted, eps appears to suggest op is a bit too far east. I'm with Tip concerning significant unknowns about how things can rapidly develop in ways you don't see coming well in advance with setups as dynamic as this at mid-levels. Maybe it plays out as modeled but I think we might have some significant nowcast issues down the road.