FXWX

I'm sure it will be for someone... Maybe folks that have not lived along the west coast of Florida and just moved to FL in the past 9 months; babies that were born last fall and later... Although in all seriousness, some of the modeled surge heights for the area most likely to be near and just east of the LF, I think you have to go back a long way to find those surge heights. Of course, it is very much location specific in that big bend area and have not had to look too deeply into surge heights in past storms to hit that area, but 10 to 15' may be record setting it a few spots.

Correct... the reading is actually accurate but it is not representative of the air mass... Just like a high dew point over the mulch bed is accurate for the spot, the local air mass dew point is considerably lower.

Haven't had much time to dig deep, but seen some discussions that they are a bit shallower.

It should be a concern...

Why not! Lol...

I can see that happening... I'd like a modestly above normal Sept. Don't need it to be hot, but low to mid 80's works for me... I think the window for that type of regime will open up during the first half of Sept once this latest troughing episode runs it's course. Hard to believe some of the Plains heat won't eventually mix out a bit across the Upper Midwest & Northeast.

We, myself included, have been saying we can't keep constant trough for weeks now, but the footprint refuses to budge. Eventually it will exit, but I'm not betting it happens in the short term...

Agree... Was very distinct and trackable

Very distinct!

Come on Kev... I'm not saying, nor is anyone else I think, that an extended period of tropical humidity will not overwhelm at least SNE during the second half of August, it might well. But you seem to be indicating the July pattern featuring an incredibly long stretch of high dew pt air mass has continued into early August. It clearly has not. Now there have been model hints of a stronger Bermuda high evolution as we move deeper into August, but those hints have not yet verified nor has the signal gained stronger support. I would tread carefully until we see the persistent Northeast trough relax or retrograde further west, along with a western expansion of the west ATL ridge. It may well happen down the road, but certainly not a lock.

While the July wetness footprint does seem to have folded over into August, I don't recall any 7-day period looking like this first 7-day anomaly of August??? Not really screaming torch? I do expect a rebound of sorts due to occasional periods of high dews and positive overnight mins, but it will take a while to get the monthly departure to normal or above.

Yes sir! Ryan has always been great on getting ahead of the curve of these events. Also, I've noticed BOX being more and more proactive with them as well compared to several years ago..

As noted, once into the fall season, mid September onward, low & mid level jet speeds start increasing steadily with the corresponding shear values quickly responding. The negative cold water impacts of early summer events are no longer a player. Given the number of these events we have seen over the past several years and the steadily increasing SST, I would expect these types of events to become even more common in the years to come. And while we await a long overdue classic EML / northwest flow event, these late summer / fall events may become more impressive with time???

Agree

Looks like a kinda road trip to PA day???

Exactly... It might be a partial pattern driver, how much no one really knows, but more importantly it can be an "enhancer" of sorts when a particular event occurs.

Yep... SST only come seriously into play when you have a viable disturbance and/or large scale features favorable for development.

I would take my chances with a 09-10 redux anytime! Knowing how very slight shifts in a pattern like that could easily produce a big SNE winter, I'd roll the dice!

2.68 inches so far today here....

Route 4 / Vineyard RD

Tree through roof in Burlington CT

A little noisy in the weather office as the next cell sweeps through... PXL_20230729_225737761.TS.mp4

"any", not and...

This was the southwest flank of HFD county storm. Hard to detect and strong rotation but at least a hint... PXL_20230729_173140009.TS.mp4

1.69 rain total so far at my location in Burlington...