FXWX

Ok... I will now say something positive about the possible threat... I do like the hint of the bottom of approaching trough on the op Euro starting to sag a bit southwest, as the strong short-wave exits quickly into eastern Canada. The more separation from the Canadian short-wave and the base of the trough could allow this feature to amplify further, especially if we feed anymore energy in from the northwest??? If you toggle the last 12-hour period and focus on the bottom of the trough you can get a sense of the potential for the base of the trough to "possibly" come east and foster a bit more west or northwest pull on the track. The faster the short-wave in eastern CT exits the better... Still a long shot overall and plenty of room for escape, but this is an interesting trend overall...

Hmmm... a hint of similarity, but with some significant differences... both had a more of an approaching trough with some capture / tug impacts... Again, not saying it wouldn't be close or interesting, but need to see some trough support... Here are the 500 mb maps for Edna followed by Carol at approach to Carolina coast....

Everything has a shot... even Wiz has a shot at dating Taylor Swift... sorry Wiz but the best I could come up with quickly...

LOL... using Korean model from a post by a guy with "Hurricane Addict" is priceless Kev... Cracks me up...

Pipe dream it might be but the number of hits when you are relying only on a high is even tougher. That almost always has westward model bias that almost never works... not arguing it can allow a close call or a Cape sideswipe, but the history of a big hit without the trough interaction are even rarer... at least something to keep watching; especially for Cape to NS...

I'm a simple guy!!! Lol

I used to always tell my students "Does the door open at the right time / is there something in a position to go through the door". Almost every summer and early fall we see the door wide open but there is nothing in position. We actually do see the tropical door swing open on a regular basis, but the vast majority of the time there is not a system ready to enter. This past July the door to the tropics was wide open for an extended period of time, but as one might expect in July, the tropics were not ready to deliver.

Yup...

Agree 1,000%...

Agree Wolfie... we can never sleep on the threat... and we don't need a Cat 3 at LF to have major impacts. The nature of our hardwood forecast and densely populated region opens the door to widespread long duration power issues even with a solid Cat 1 / 2...

That's why the repeat period is so long... it's like trying to paddle upstream into an increasing strong current; most of the time it succeeds in turning you away. Basic meteorology shows New England is usually fully embedded in the westerlies. I wouldn't say the odds of this getting to the coast is zero, but they are low... could it make a close approach? Yes but work needs to be done to get it to the coast. Still time in the season for another threat or two... actually the odds increase a bit once more vigorous polar short waves start to show up...

We don't... this will be one of those great looking systems that doesn't have a chance of getting to coast. Should put on a nice satellite image show though...

A stronger high may serve to slow the system, possibly even stall it a bit. In past similar situations, a slowing/blocked or stalling setup could increase the threat to the Carolinas; maybe hold it southeast of the Carolinas until a bigger trough comes along to grab it. Not 100% out of the question that a strong high wouldn't direct it into the Carolinas and whatever remains comes northeast as a blustery tropical rain event. Not very likely but on the list of possibilities if the high goes crazy. Even if the high becomes a blocker, you still need the type of MW trough I've talked about to get SNE in trouble otherwise it becomes Carolina hit and rains itself over TN/OH.

Private consulting meteorologist...

Hey Kev, I'd like a good tropical just as much as any other guy! I love the excitement the approach a hurricane threat to the East Coast can bring. And I will be monitoring for changes and trends. But we will need to see very significant pattern trends with any evolving MW trough in the next 48 hours or so... If there is even any modest southwest flow component to the right side of the trough, this will turn seaward when it nears the coast, if it makes it that far west. You need neutral trough alignment at least; ideally a bit of a slight negative tilt. Also, be very wary of any model attempts at a capture into the trough as it gets close to the coast... That almost has to have a full-blown negative trough approaching to workout. I'd love to see it and will jump onboard if trends suggest it; hell, a good hurricane hit threat is great for my business... I have a whole house / office generator and weeks of propane, no trees anywhere near my house, so a can dela with the disruptions a good hit would produce. Keep the faith Kev... you never know???

IMHO, many, not all, folks are looking in the wrong direction... constantly looking seaward to follow slightest change in modeled track is almost pointless. Just turn around and monitor the upper layout trends from the lower Great Lakes / TN Valley areas eastward to the coast. Unless there are significant changes in the that area, this thing will recurve... now it may tease the EC, and we could wake up to a nice-looking storm south of New England, but it will be escaping seaward... While some lower heights are now modeled across the Great Lakes / Midwest area, it is not sufficient for just a mean trough approaching the EC, it has to be one that features at least a neutral alignment with at least a hint of negativity. I will get interested if and when that happens, but it is not there yet...

You can hit all the benchmarks you want, if the door Infront of the system is not open it doesn't matter. Go back and look at the 500 mb before all of our previous hits!!! When they were going through the check points the pattern ahead of them was already evolving in a threatening way...

All righty then... it's settled. New England gets hit by a sneaky hurricane that no one saw coming... your second sentence could not be any more inaccurate...

There's a lot of work to be done before I would be mildly interested in this setup producing any New English issue. Believe it or not, our significant hits actually have a pretty solid footprint for trouble in place by day 10. This one, in my opinion, does not. Still time to change but I'm not a fan of the large-scale layout at this time.

In the end, we will have to see a more pronounced reflection of lower heights south of the Great Lakes (Ohio Valley area) that can eventually produce a neutral or negative alignment to any trough coming east. Would have to follow system coming southeast out of central Canada to see if that potential eventually exist. Far less worried about the ridge... unless we eventually see signs of Ohio Valley troughing odds are low for a coastal runner! Carolina threat in play moreso.

I hear ya Wiz... it's that historically they almost never move up the coast slowly and tend to move faster than all the models forecast. It's seems to me there almost always a model bias of being too slow when it is all said and done. All that being said, if the we were to get a slow northward moving system, the cool waters would certainly be a killer.

Sometimes the smarter we are the dumber we get! Looking at the SST profiles just south and east of SNE and using that as an "all clear" single is folly! And history bears that out. I don't think Sandy and the 1938 hurricane cared much about the SST. Newfoundland? hell, ask Nova Scotia about that... Almost all of our meaningful hits featured a fall-like pattern transition underway with a digging or negatively tilting trough approaching. For us, it is all about a fast northward moving system that goes from NC to SNE in 12 hours or less, be dammed the SST. We are never talking about a system crawling along at 15 to mph... That's not, nor ever will be how SNE does hurricanes...

In some cases, they do interview them, and request info needed for identification, and family members to contact, if need be...

I hear ya... Just got off the phone with a former student of mine; he is now the Meteorologist in Charge at Tampa NWS... He indicated that if the surge forecast is correct, it would be above any levels in modern time for a portion of the Big Bend area; they have responsibility through Cedar Key before NWS Tallahassee zones takeover. His concern is there are over 2 dozen residents within the max surge zone that have refused to evacuate...

Thanks for the info... right after I sent that post, I saw several sources proving that if the Idalia does indeed hit the area now projected and does produce the level of surge forecast, it will be a once in lifetime or generation event for those folks.