FXWX

PXL_20230925_145238050.TS.mp4

PXL_20230925_145226091.TS.mp4

Bunnel River in Burlington... 3.69" here... PXL_20230925_145226091.TS.mp4

Still crushes parts of srn CT but rapid decrease from nrn CT north and east... Part of that probably has to do with the capture and northwest track of Ophelia into central NC, which greatly limits northeast push of moisture field? I do think there is support for heavy rain zone south of SNE, whether or not it can punch north into southern portions of SNE is up for grabs...

Well that's something we will likely say a thousand times over the next 6 months...

Probably the most over used term on the board; second to only stein...

Good question with no simple answer. A few things in play... the friction increase is the most determental item to maintaining the speed you see over the open ocean... also factors such as terrain features, elevation, wide open areas v urban areas, as well as the direction of the wind all play into how much wind speeds will decrease. Another very important factor is whether or not the low-level atmosphere is stable or not... many times the atmosphere near the coast is more unstable (warmer at the surface through the lower levels of the atmosphere) and this allows the very strong winds often found between 2 and 4 thousand feet to mix down to the surface. Many times the inland temperature profile is more stable, warms as you go higher into the 2 to 4 thousand foot level. This prevents the strong winds aloft from mixing down to the surface across inland area. Although high elevations can have an easier time seeing strong winds. The more unstable the lower atmosphere is the easier it is to get the stronger winds to the surface. Most of the time, if I don't think the inland air mass will be unstable (able to mix) I cut modeled land wind gust by 5 to 10% .

The problem with how that is stated in this and all advisories for that matter, is that there is a tendency by some folks to think that means TS winds will occur 310 miles inland when in reality that only implies over the open ocean. Once the landmass interaction occurs that number collapses. I know you fully understand this but I saw someone, non-met, talking about how the wind radii would bring the winds to Albany NY based on the advisory info. The majority of folks know better, but it does crack me up somebody actually uses the wind radii and extend it west or northward over the landmass. It is interesting to see gradient already doing it's dirty work...

Best I've ever come across...

I have... I found tremendous old pictorial book of the 38 damage many years ago in a book store in Watch Hill. It's broken into sections by county and there is at least one picture from every town within each county...

We grew up in New Britain as well. My father described the roofs of 2 and 3 family houses lift off like and pinwheel to the ground like a Frisbee. In Norfolk, CT at a small historic site there are before and after pictures of the hill sides... almost every oal tree looks like they were just mowed down. In fact, most of the tall oaks across the interior of the state are post 1938...

Yep... 38 is almost impossible to envision based on our recent past. My father lived through 38 in central CT and he recalled in very stark terms what the damage looked like...

The number of strong wind events the Cape goes through each year gives them lots of practice. There will be issues but probably manageable by Cape standards.

It's getting tiring living at H500...

Yep... excellent... 73 to 75 is the alley I start getting really interested; but even in that zone many more than not find a way to go south and east of SNE. Nice job as usual...

?

For sure most knew this was a long shot and was fighting decades of hurricane climatology for the Northeast. In the end the usual east fade trend and history will win the day. Once again it proves that the center line of the ensemble spread is usually the best course of action and chasing small numbers of westward members rarely works. For folks looking for a good hit, I understand the excitement of rooting for any favorable members. For forecasters like myself, there are still issues to deal with even if they are confined to immediate coastal plain...

Ok... wasn't sure where that report was from...

what is CMD

Yes to this... In this case for eastern MA, even a 20-mile shift will cause significant forecast changes in terms of tree damage and power outage potential... During all storms that have the potential for meaningful numbers of power outages, I'm involved with the pre-positioning of generators for sale to the public at a variety of New England stores (one client with dozens of stores throughout New England). Given limited supply, we try to make a call as to where the greatest numbers of units should be positioned prior to the storm's impacts... But we do not want to leave stores not near the core of the highest threat area without some units, in case there is a shift in the wind gusts forecast... In this case, they have to be at the clients stores by Friday afternoon at the latest. The bottom line, a 20-to-30-mile shift in the track can be very impactful to what I do and the clients bottom line.

This has been the summer of Flash Flood Warnings!!!

I agree HUGE is likely inappropriate, I also think using the term "Nor'easter" in the thread title was a good way to treat the threat. I have become a bit more interested even though this will be a storm passing east of the Cape, which usually does not get me overly interested. My interest is peaked by the strong winds that continue to be modeled for the 900 / 925 mb levels. This will be gradient driven and the only question for eastern portions of CT/RI and eastern Mass, excluding the Cape, is how efficient is the mixing? Given the progged wind fields, a well-mixed event will lead to pretty widespread power issues given current status of trees (still lots of leaves) & very wet ground surfaces in eastern sections of SNE, eastern CT/RI/inside the 495 corridor of Mass. So, no major hurricane hit, but still solid hit for Cape Cod and coastal eastern Mass... Disruptive wind gusts for interior eastern portions of SNE, "IF" mixing become efficient. If we do not see decent mixing then this will end-up pretty meh for anyone away from the coast.

Very impressive 900 mb wind field at 12z Saturday; euro...

At this time, I would stick close to 40-45 gust range until confident of 925 mb winds and mixing potential. Using some of the basic rules we'd use for predicting strong winds on the backside of nor'easters is the way to go. I remember Gustav and it's not a bad analog if mixing continues to look good. Given saturated ground surfaces and fully leafed out trees, issues will arise if we see consistent winds 40+. Assuming it has started it's transition when it approaches the latitude of the Cape, I think the strong wind expansion due the gradient tightening will make into at least eastern CT... more uncertain further west. Still pieces of the puzzle to figure out.

What do you think is the over / under max wind for Tolland?