FXWX

I think you have it actually right... Like so many big qpf producers we have seen over the past several months, the potential for heavy rates is certainly enhanced given the setup; this time snow, not flooding rains! While the banding signal looks good, this might be a situation where the banding max zone is wider than we might normally expect? Still time to tinker with trends, but goal posts are narrowing...

This setup is going to be very noisy for at least another 24 hours... The variety of ENS member solutions are probably related to the differences in speed and or intensity of the 2 short waves. Folks are going to go crazy trying to figure out what is a true trend or just blip...

Basically on the same page... I think some folks a dismissing the possible -NAO impacts on 1/10 storm; given the time range I would be careful that wintery impacts won't occur further south into parts of interior SNE...

Just looking for a bit of clarification as to your thinking... I might be completely wrong (good chance), and assume you are talking about the entire NA upper level construct having a La Nina vibe. But in terms of storm tracks, isn't this system's snow / rain layout pretty typical of El Nino winters? I've always thought El Nino winters favored some big interior Mid Atlantic / SNE events with the typical coastal plain precip type issues. The Pacific sst anomaly is clearly in El Nino mode but there appears to be a disconnect with some of the more typical El Nino atmospheric features / indexes? But in terms of East Coast action this kind of fits the mode... Am I wrong about that???

Second paragraph is perfect! That's exactly what I am expecting, and something that is fairly common. Of course, it is going to produce an outcry of "I was screwed" or "another meh storm" from folks sitting just north of the east/northeast hvy snow axis. Barring any over amped short wave trends, the large scale flow should limit the northward extent of the best snows.

Another aggrieved 30+ or 40+ guy complaining about how bad life is!!! Lol. Give me a break...

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/index_e.html Here is the link but don 't see the black on white anomaly plot. I used to use that all the time...

Ok; now we are getting somewhere; this should be easy for you; Just state which ones fit your ranking of A/A+. I'm sure you've had so many during your life so far, they should be on the tip of your tongue... lol

Wow; lol... I need to know which winter seasons you would grade as an A; better yet which ones that you lived through would you give an A+...

How would you classify 2014 - 2015?

That's because it's used differently by different folks. If the snow drought continues, some call it persistence regardless of large scale pattern changes. Most mets, including myself, tend to look at the pattern changes, not the outcome when talking about persistence.

Not sure... but when it got warm it disappeared? Still researching..

Pic from 12/27/2010... Big-time clean-up operation in Burington, CT...

Was there ever anybody calling fo snow Friday?

Agree... When dealing with many El Nino winters, there are always going to be concerns about the ability to get widespread snows even when you get a great storm track; especially early in the winter. I'm just happy to see storm frequency and intensity continuing since I expect it to pay dividends during Jan & Feb. But, coverage and intensity of cold air masses will be an issue during much of the winter. I'll roll the dice given active storm pattern. While I am in no way looking at 2015 walking through the door, there are too many trends such as trend for Canadian heights like to shift westward, potential for PV disturbance, possible strato warming event and active storm track too dismiss the upside to Jan / Feb period.

Who are you going to believe, ORH or qg-omega? lol... not really a fair fight.

Agree and apologize for replying within the December thread. I almost always avoid getting into non relevant to thread topic posts... But this time my urge was to respond overwhelmed.

You are perfect example of what problem is these days with trying to discuss science related topics from climate change to vaccinations. It's never an all or nothing argument. There is no doubt there is a human component to climate trends. The question is how significant??? It is certainly not 100% nor is it 0%. Folks can stick their heads in the sand and block their ears if they want to, but that does not change the facts about climate trends and the likely partial input from humans. On the other hand, those who want to scream and shout that the issue is 100% human caused are just as guilty. My suggestion is read a variety of peer reviewed studies and stop listening to the extremes on both sides. Is will be my one and only post on the subject. I have zero desire to try to convince folks on the extremes of either side of the issue what to believe...

Great post Tip... But you have to stop using logic and solid meteorological reason, it spoils the negative theme of this thread. Lol...

Actually quite a few. A hardware chain up there is one of my clients and they fly off the shelves every storm... Usually they try to get extra units in the days leading up to an event. But the number of folks without still very much out weighs the number that do...

49 mph gust here... 1,160' elevation... 10 meter tower.

Yep

Just a note since I am already dealing with this issue... If HWW continues for parts of eastern CT, superintendents are going to pull the plug... Especially in heavily wooded towns...