FXWX

Model discrepancies and variability is what keeps the science alive... Just like a good forecaster needs to analyze the actual pattern, surface and aloft, they also need to assess whether or not a particular model run makes sense given the nature of the current atmospheric setup... If it does, why does it make sense and is it believable? If it doesn't make sense, you have to figure out what is causing it to go astray? One of the reasons I think there are folks that think the modeling has gotten worse is that they don't realize years ago pattern recognition and analysis played a bigger role in forecasting than it does now, in some, not all quarters. Today I see some folks (I'm talking in general, not about anyone on this forum) spending 99% of their time looking at all and every modeling product, but rarely studying any actual data maps...

Imagine how completely boring it will be if and when the modeling reach infailable levels one day down the road... There would be just one centralized forecast office manned by a person to activate the computer and a janitor to dust... Also it would spell the death of weather forums! Lol

By the end of the winter he will have thrown so much spaghetti on the wall he will claim victory... Does it every year. This call has some pattern progression merit but I see it from him every winter.

Yes Wolfie... Time does fly... She's 10 going on 20... Lol. She calls the Cape home now, which means I had to install a Davis on their roof... They have verified 2 blizzards and 2 tornados since moving their 10 years ago!!!

Happy Thanksgiving to all... Here's a pic of my granddaughter T-day 2014!

Started as snow as far south as Middlebury and Cheshire, CT (along I-84 corrdior)... Light coating already in Warren, CT...

Light snow flying through the air at 1,160' in Burlington, CT...

Actually, I love seeing that wall of cold sitting just off to the north... Keep it within striking distance...

Lol... You do get a sense the modeling is playing Russian Roulette winter storm game here...

Agree with the need to watch period after T-day... Cold is solid in that period... See if we can time some sort of disturbance in that slot. Then I do think it will like a lot of recent Decembers... Waiting for some sort of flip as we head into or through Xmas holiday period? Unfortunately in the last few years the wait has been tedious. Speaking of Hallmark cards this was the scene out my dining room window early last December...

Agree... While we aren't staring down the barrel of T-Day blizzard, I am ok with the general pattern trends overall. I do think they pay dividends down the road. I love it cold on T-Day... No fun cutting down our trees in a T-shirt... Would love to get cold enough to get some skating in with the grandkids during Xmas week. Usually hard to do, but not impossible...

Unfortunately every November some posters (not all) fall into what I call the Hallmark card and/or movie syndrome. Where it snows before and during every holiday period. Endless scenes of folks trekking through snow or skating on ice covered ponds. While I would love to see it on a regular basis, that's not the history / climatology of SNE winters. The rare one comes along a couple of times in a life time, but the operative word is rare. So when we latch onto a 6 to 10 day operational GFS or Euro with little or no ensemble support, we can dream, but many more times than not it's ain't happening. Don't get me wrong, I have lived through a handful of special Thanksgivings and Xmas weather periods and loved them. But I usually have to pop on a Hallmark movie to see holiday snows!!! Fingers crossed that the run up to Christmas this year is a special one.

Actuallly 3 make sense, and one doesn't...

Agree... I use a full ski mask and googles... its colder, but it just became too much of a nuisance to see where I was going... lol

Agree... I think variability and maybe volatility is favored over the next 3 to 4 weeks, maybe biased above normal overall, but I don't dislike the evolution of the late fall / early winter pattern. I'm pretty sure we will have to fight through some hostile / ugly periods but I don't think a repeat of some recent brutal past winters is at hand.

Obviously specifics and timing issues will need refinement, but I agree with the general pattern progression you suggest...

In reality Wiz, long range is not anybody's thing... Lots of folks and organizations play with it, and all the more power to them; I admire the grit and determination. But the skill level in terms of truly actionable outcomes is still very poor. That does not mean we should stop trying, but folks have to remain realistic about its value. Chatted with Walt Drag about it the other day and like me, he believes there is a ton of room for improvement in the day 10 to day 15 range that would bring lots of value to the forecasting community. Getting much improved skill scores to the 10-to-20-day period is where a lot of effort should be directed...

I hear ya... was just commenting on Powder-F comment... I do think there is far too much wrist-slitting about poorly modeled periods 3 to 5 weeks out in the future. You have to separate out the comments from some of the mets who are commenting on the look of the pattern, as modeled, and just indicating the most likely outcome were it too verify. That does not mean they think the pattern is likely to verify. They are just saying "IF" it looks like the modeled pattern when we get there, the likely outcome will such and such. Obviously, the trend on the extended period modeling does not look great and if the same trends continue to show-up for another week or two then there will be reason for concern. But as we have seen many times before, the weeklies can crash and burn miserably. Unfortunately, in recent years that has been the case many more times with projected cold periods than warm periods. And yes, even crappy looking Decembers can produce significant snow (or ice) events... All you need is a favorable, well-time period? I tend to not worry about solid winter patterns through mid-December; often I look at the holiday period moving forward...

Oh I think the tone would instantly collapse into very mediocre, blah non-committal statements...

These 2 quotes (your's and Coastal s) need to be added to the greatest posts of all time list! Lol

Chance of the first icy morning commute in some areas probably driving the decision. Many districts use a NWS Advisory statement in effect at the bus time during the morning commuting period as a reason to run with a delay, especially early in the season. Also, the decision is often a collaborative call with local DPW.

Agree... We have lots of crappy Decembers that produce snow but it rarely sticks around long... There will be a couple of windows even during a hostile December. My pattern take has me interested in a December icing threat for portions of the region, prior to or near the mid-month period.

There is a fairly long list of solid winter events occurring during the first 5 or 10 days of December regardless of ENSO state. The problem for hardcore winter snow pack lovers is that the snow cover rarely sticks around long.

About 16 out of 20 of those solutions produce little or no significant impacts across the locations he outlined!!! He also stated he sees a signal during a time frame that has been discussed for more than a week by many others.