FXWX

What a worthless piece of fake long range forecasting... If it were as simple as using sst anomalies to predict the winter jet stream pattern, every winter forecast would be perfect! It's all modelology with no meteorology. All click bait; headline stating a brutal winter lies ahead, but almost zero support discussed in the video. So typical of today's social media driven weather industry.

Great sunset tonight in Burlington CT...PXL_20250929_224815675.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dngPXL_20250929_224815675.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dngPXL_20250929_224815675.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dng

I'm talking about upper climo... Pattern aloft has to have a semblance of a known pattern that has in the past allowed for a landfall? We can certainly have some odd tracks when 2 circulations interfere with each other. But their tracks still will be controlled by the upper levels.

100%. Agree... As we have said a million times, there is a well established large scale climo pattern for a New England hit! Once again this not it! Show me a past storm that made landfall with our current pattern several days out? Every winter folks love to chat about how a pattern is favorable or not favorable for a Kocin storm, but when it comes to hurricanes, so many folks just follow modeled surface tracks without ever mentioning the total lack of upper support?

Strong Agree!

Emphasis on "a little".... Large-scale feature placement still argue against it... Just one of those years to date. Still time to get something threatening but certainly nothing obvious at this time. Maybe once (if) fall pattern grows more amplified we might get a Gulf or Caribbean system to pop and get get yanked northward?

That was my first take before a biologist friend clued me in! I wish I had taken some pics because it was quite remarkable in some areas.

It's nothing like the Cape browning... Your area may indeed be related to dryness. When I was on the Cape in early July and then again in mid-August, it was quite remarkable in the Sandwich / Mashpee area... Had never seen anything like it.

Yes! Not drought / rainfall related... 100% cicadas related...

Just kidding... I would be very surprised if we didn't see an uptick heading in late month period. We've got no where to go but up? Lol

If "gone wild" means continuing the theme of almost no chance of tropical threat, then I agree!

Agree...

Once again this is wrong that it implies the SST is driving the bus!

Thanks for the detailed thoughts Tip... I think the "if that persist" comment cannot be understated. Over the years I've seen massive changes for the northeast Pacific sst profile moving from early fall into early / mid winter. It's rarely static. Also we occasionally see some folks thinking the sst configuration (in this case the warm pool in the northeast Pacific) drives the pattern, when as you stated, it is an artifact of larger atmospheric features/patterns. I do think you are probably correct about an early onset compared to some recent winters. Of course, intensity and staying power very uncertain. Hints of this occurring should show up in early October, if it's going to happen?

The "great analog song" has been sung many times in recent years to no avail! Relying on the look of the SST layout in early Sept is not high on my list...