FXWX

There has been chatter for several weeks now that a window would open for a threat either right at the end of the month or very early in December. Folks who are on here daily should have seen that discussed multiple times from multiple posters. I mentioned this to my clients at least 3 weeks ago. I thought the early November warmth would linger a bit longer, but the colder look to very late November very early December is no surprise, nor is the potential for our first true winter threat. Right now, it appears the late Nov/early Dec calls are right on the mark. The question then becomes is this one and done deal that quickly revert back to an AB pattern? I did not have much hope for the mid-December period and have been favoring an AB trend after the early December cold period. There is some support for it to linger a bit longer than I first thought, but I would give it a couple of more eps runs. I noted the other day, I am not a big fan of early December being a great indicator of things to come. I'd be happy if just the position of the modeled high-pressure system next weekend were to be something that gets repeated a few times this upcoming winter.

Lol... thumbing through the KOCIN book(s), it's all about eastern Canadian confluence & high-pressure centers sitting off to our north! If this is in anyway a hint of the winter trend, I'll take it...

I would never think anything is a lock and I'd bet on Euro being a bit drunk. But I always look for classic check list items to boost confidence. Right off the bat, it is sweet seeing that high pressure system modeled location. No high pressure center or a poorly placed one have been the bane of recent winters

Given the time of the year; folks would be happy with one half or even one third of the Euro numbers!!!

Nope to test of AI... Like all other model schemes, they win 1 battle but lose the war... The Euro AI has missed far forecasts than it hits. If it were to hit this forecast, it would mean little to using it for future events.

Yes!

Even some crappy Decembers had a decent early snowfall prior to going to crap by midmonth. Many of the long-lead forecasts had a decided cooling for late November into early December with at least a hint of a snow threat, appear to be following script. Unfortunately, those same forecasts call for a moderating trend and lowering of the snow potential heading into mid/late December. I've learned over the years, significant early December snow, for at least SNE, does not always bode well for what follows. This is not a prediction just some thoughts after decades of monitoring... I've always liked late December as the best time to see a significant winter pattern shift.

Thanks Wiz... Agree with the mobile situation, but rarely travel out of the office without a laptop... You are correct about the arrogance of a couple of the bigger companies. I actually had the contact ask me why I would like to see the layout of the 700 mb vv or advection fields!!!

It's the only site I've never played around with... Thanks, going to give it a look...

COD is probably the best free site; Pivotal is decent and the upgrade to premium is relatively cheap. That being said, WxBell is my default but price keeps ticking up. I'd love to see a site that combines the best features on COD, Tropical Tidbits, and WxBell. I've asked WxBell about adding some of the cross-sectional options, vv, advection and/or fronto maps found on COD / Tropical Tidbits. But they have never responded positively. I find Weather.us to be tedious.

While I agree in general, we all know the reality of this social media driven hype machine. If only, folks would concentrate on trends, particularly the upper levels. But the desire for click bait folks to post surface progs, and/or precip totals at long leads has polluted so many of the discussions. I would be perfectly happy if the available models after day-10 showed only the 500 mb level.

"How can they call it an upgrade when the 2 most recent "upgrades" did not lead to a meaningful score improvement???

Earlier post by me was inaccurate... I was looking at the boy's bracket, not the girls... Stonington boys beat Seymour...

I thought Seymour lost to Stonington, Tuesday? The vast majority of times it comes down to defense!

yep... that's if we can get a solid 2 weeks... most recent winters the storm window has been 5-7 day period...