FXWX

Which has almost become the norm 4 to 5 days out.

I do think breaks are coming but there are always going to be MBY screw jobs. And the reality is eastern Mass and the I-95 corridor from sw CT north is always chancy even in a good pattern....

You might be on to something!

Calling this a bullshit pattern on Dec. 2 is pretty funny... Multiple mixture threats for at least interior SNE at this time of the year fine with me in terms of transitioning into winter.

Yes... I agree, the look of vort max and its progged track is not one screaming suppression? At least not yet. Its trend (vort max) moving forward is something to watch closely over the next few runs. Nice to see a post focusing on a forecasting issue.

That's what I'm thinking... A little bit of both, which adds to the complexity! Fun times ahead... I just hope folks enjoy the action and don't get overly hung up and only MBY outcomes.

Yep... There are always going to be folks complaining about a particular event due to their own backyard outcome, but it's nice having a base pattern that will give trackable events for much of December...

Given today's trends, the non-event option seems to be fading fast; final outcome still dependent upon some finer points that will take another 3 days or so to resolve; degree of confluence across southeastern; strength of retreating high, any -nao assist, strength of low-level temp gradient etc... like most SWFE events interior is favored, but current trends suggest to me front end dump potential could be decent on the coastal plain as well??? No matter how this first one plays out, it could help improve the setup for events that follow?

Yep... Agree

Agree... You can't be blamed for being gun shy... Lots of screw jobs over the past few years. That being said, I think optimism is warranted... Since we will be dealing with mainly SWFEs, it would be nice to get some secondary, even weak, lows running out under SNE? I am certainly going to stay conservative, especially SOP, in the short term. Would love to see the pattern morp into one favoring coastal as we move into the heart of the winter; very late Dec onward. For now, Midwest track favored with SWFE causing our main action... Missing out on early December snows doesn't really bother me; I'm just looking for favorable pattern trends. Liking fact 40/70 is bullish in general.

That's going to be the issue as this pattern unfolds during December. Degree of old loading into southeast Canada will be critical. Too much assist from -NAO and we get suppression; too little and SNE gets screwed by warming, but ice potential increases? But if we get modest confluence locked in by weak to moderate -NAO and it could be a solid December; especially NOP! I would keep expectations low right now, but it's an active look with decent potential.

1000% agree...

70-71 was exceptional for its almost wall to wall snow cover, and long running cold. But if it were to repeat at this day and age, this board would be filled with complaints of the lack of any true biggies! Lots more light to moderate events with a couple of +10" storms across CT... Feb. 1971 only saw 8.4" at BDL... December 70 was great month with 27", but only 1 big event.

That's because they are almost unheard of! Getting a stretch like in 14-15 is about as good as you can hope for... A solid 6 week period is what I'd be happy with. Wire to wire here SNE is almost impossible to achieve...

As modeled and shown on these 2 graphics, do not represent a very cold pattern from eastern NY on across New England. More of a normal to slightly colder than normal conditions. The bulk of the cold will be centered well to the west, which is typical of weak La Nina events. Some of the cold will bleed eastward but no guarantee it bodily comes eastward??? It is common for weak La Ninas to see the core of the cold anomaly stretching from western Canada southeastward into Northern Plains / Great Lakes with lessening impacts as you approach New England. from Canada southeast