FXWX

Also, like all model guidance, we can all feel different about the value of a particular model and/or product. Be it the lowly Nam or the Euro... We all, or at least I do, have our own favorites and routines...

I don't disagree in general... I'm pretty clueless as to these products are actually constructed, and yes the sample size is very small. But I've seen enough positive trends this cold season to use them for significant trends in the 7 to 10 day period. I may never really understand how the AI products are generated, but think they have shown value... That does not mean take them verbatim, but they should be used to for trends and support...

I know, but not as bullish as was hoping... Certainly not dismissing the potential but hoping for more substantial trends...

The lack of AI support for the Feb 14 period is concerning... I had zeroed in on that period, but can't feel very confident unless a favorable AI trend comes on board soon?

yep... actually the OES potential looks pretty crappy...

We will see... not a big deal one way or the other... feel free to respond if I'm wrong! Lol..

I wouldn't be completely shocked if someone sees 2+ or 3+ amounts across coastal eastern Mass or the Cape where some OES magic occurs, but this is a coating to 1.5 inch event (iso 2") for most of SNE...

I'm not so sure? There is something about the look of the large-scale pattern trends, medium range guidance suggestions, and some historical time frames that peaks my interest a bit more than I would normally give to 10-day Outlook. Over the years I've always liked two February periods; Feb 3-6, and Feb 12-16? If I were a betting man, I might wager on this upcoming period ( Feb 13-15) breaking our way... In no way a hard and fast forecast and a complete failure is certainly on the table, but I'd spin the storm roulette wheel on that time period. Add to the mix that I have 2 incredibly important family matters to attend on the 14th could seal the deal... Lol

Amazing what a little wind can do to change the tenor of the outdoor feel... Almost the same temp as yesterday right now, but with a steady 12 mph wind, gusting to 25 mph... The walk around the neighborhood was nowhere near as comfortable as it was yesterday!

South facing walkway... Not a hint of melting!

27.5 here

About a third of this forum waste time reposting shit posts found on X as if they really mean anything!

Yes?

The challenge with Miller A's v. B's is a whole different animal! B's precip shields are relatively easy to deal with and while there are always questions about ptype, intensity and transition zones, it's quite easy to predict precip coverage. Miller A's are a whole different animal. Track (over, inside or outside the benchmark / stalling / loops) and the ever present headache chasing multiple lows, some real, some ghost, makes the forecast confidence level drop. In the early days of my career, I remember plotting ship reports trying to get a handle on any offshore development of any spurious lows. The more seaward trend of this system is likely a product of a couple of items; right now I'm more inclined to think that the southward collapsing feature in northeast Canada might be a bigger player than speed shear issues. The speed issue is certainly not helping but I think the Canadian issue might be a greater contributer? To deny the offshore trend would be foolish of me, but I remain vigilant, especially for eastern CT.

More like mid-November...