FXWX

Yep... Agree

Agree... You can't be blamed for being gun shy... Lots of screw jobs over the past few years. That being said, I think optimism is warranted... Since we will be dealing with mainly SWFEs, it would be nice to get some secondary, even weak, lows running out under SNE? I am certainly going to stay conservative, especially SOP, in the short term. Would love to see the pattern morp into one favoring coastal as we move into the heart of the winter; very late Dec onward. For now, Midwest track favored with SWFE causing our main action... Missing out on early December snows doesn't really bother me; I'm just looking for favorable pattern trends. Liking fact 40/70 is bullish in general.

That's going to be the issue as this pattern unfolds during December. Degree of old loading into southeast Canada will be critical. Too much assist from -NAO and we get suppression; too little and SNE gets screwed by warming, but ice potential increases? But if we get modest confluence locked in by weak to moderate -NAO and it could be a solid December; especially NOP! I would keep expectations low right now, but it's an active look with decent potential.

1000% agree...

70-71 was exceptional for its almost wall to wall snow cover, and long running cold. But if it were to repeat at this day and age, this board would be filled with complaints of the lack of any true biggies! Lots more light to moderate events with a couple of +10" storms across CT... Feb. 1971 only saw 8.4" at BDL... December 70 was great month with 27", but only 1 big event.

That's because they are almost unheard of! Getting a stretch like in 14-15 is about as good as you can hope for... A solid 6 week period is what I'd be happy with. Wire to wire here SNE is almost impossible to achieve...

As modeled and shown on these 2 graphics, do not represent a very cold pattern from eastern NY on across New England. More of a normal to slightly colder than normal conditions. The bulk of the cold will be centered well to the west, which is typical of weak La Nina events. Some of the cold will bleed eastward but no guarantee it bodily comes eastward??? It is common for weak La Ninas to see the core of the cold anomaly stretching from western Canada southeastward into Northern Plains / Great Lakes with lessening impacts as you approach New England. from Canada southeast

Wow!

Even with lots clouds, widespread arc of dull white plume across northwestern quarter of the sky here...

First sub 32 degree high of the season for me here in Burlington, CT....1,240'

Lots of backing down by 00z model runs...

Oh, I like the higher end potential for a variety of reasons, I'm just noting the Euro is relatively low-grade compared to much of the guidance. I would and am hitting this potential hard regardless of the Euro. But I always look to see why a particular piece of modeling is not onboard with an event when most others are? But as we all know, small deviations in the pattern can screw up high-end wind event! Caution is always advised 36 hours out?

Out of all the 12z guidance runs, Euro looks to be the least bullish? At least for interior SNE...

That's the deal... 1200' plus will do it.

51 mph gust here!