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1900hurricane

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  1. 1900hurricane
    The failure mode I'm worried about most right now for next week is 2015 style MCSs prematurely clearing out the warm sector actually. It might be a little early to be overly concerned about it, but guidance is throwing some persistent and robust splitting upper level jets over the southern plains, which is driving the QPF fields way up.
  2. 1900hurricane
    I went ahead and pulled the trigger in setting aside most of next week for chasing. I've never dedicated this big of a time block to chasing in the past, so I'm really excited to finally be able to do something like this. The persistent western troughing progged across all guidance helped solidify it in my mind.
  3. 1900hurricane
    Yeah, I'm wary to buy into the recent GFS solutions for next Wednesday, especially with the depicted trough being so different from not just the other solutions, but its own ensemble mean as well. Very few individual ensemble members support the operational solution, so it's not likely the mean is becoming too washed out from dispersance either. That's not to say that it can't be a good severe weather day, but I have my doubts that the last few operational GFS solutions will verify the best for the possible event. One day that I may begin to keep an eye on is the following Friday, April 21st. It's about 200 hours out as we stand right now, and anything this far out is a far cry from a guarantee as everyone pretty much knows, but the GEFS, GEPS, and EPS means all show troughs ejecting into the southern plains in this time period.
  4. 1900hurricane
    Wow, 00Z ECMWF actually looks like it it could be a Christmas Day chasing miracle across the plains!
  5. 1900hurricane
    So it begins. *cue epic music*
  6. 1900hurricane
    Josh (and James Reynolds) ended up both intercepting in Tuguegarao it appears.
  7. 1900hurricane
    Yeesh.
  8. 1900hurricane
    Haima appears well on its way to becoming one of "those storms."
  9. 1900hurricane
    Haima may have the highest ceiling of any storm so far this year, which is saying something considering how intense Meranti became. Haima is only now emerging north of 10*N and has the highest heat content in the basin to play with. If there is a flaw with the environmental conditions, I haven't found it yet. A banding eye is has become apparent on visible imagery, and this system may be about to go nuts. Here's a morning True Color Reproduction image, showing Typhoon Sarika over Luzon to the west and Haima waiting in the wings to the east.
  10. 1900hurricane
    Malakas has made landfall in far southern Kyushu.
  11. 1900hurricane
    Malakas has restrengthened to a category 3 and is headed for Kyushu in 15 hours or so.
  12. 1900hurricane
    Yonagunijima was also right in the eye of Malakas early (in zulu) on the 17th. Even after beginning to weaken, the island recorded a 937 mb pressure, along with 10 minute sustained winds of 88 kt and a gust to 130 kt.
  13. 1900hurricane
    The typical JTWC biases are actually to be too low when a storm is strengthening or near peak intensity and then constrain the storm too high once it has begun weakening. The 2015 Typhoon Season was actually stripped of about 20*10^4 kt^2 between the operational and final best track data largely because of over-constraining a weakening storm. However, in this case I'd say JTWC's intensity estimate was pretty good. Keep in mind that in order to make a real time intensity estimate (in this case, at 18Z), only the data up to that point is available to be used, so in this case, the data mainly used came from between 12Z and 18Z (images below are from 1650Z).
  14. 1900hurricane
    From the latest HGX discussion:
  15. 1900hurricane
    Yep, that's what I think too. While I won't completely dismiss the 883 mb theory, I also think it is unlikely.
  16. 1900hurricane
    It might be a faulty report. The island was still in the eye at 18Z. Alternatively, I've seen some speculation that the 9 should be replaced with an 8.
  17. 1900hurricane
    Wow, JTWC actually went up to 165 kt/887 mb for 18Z.
  18. 1900hurricane
    Yeah, this is really something right now.
  19. 1900hurricane
    Not sure I fully buy into JTWC's 00Z intensity estimate of 160 kt. They're putting a lot of weight on SATCON for that estimate, which a notable deviation of standard policy for them. It could be correct for all I know, but the Dvorak Technique is the one with the proven track record. I know next to nothing about SATCON's verification.
  20. 1900hurricane
    Good morning to Super Typhoon Meranti.
  21. 1900hurricane
    Meranti went berserk and is now at 155 kt. Rai and Malakas are now also named in the South China Sea and near Guam, respectively.
  22. 1900hurricane
    It has been a somewhat slow Western Pacific Typhoon Season so far this year. The season started late in July, only four or five (depending on your choice in agency) typhoons have been observed so far, and ACE still remains a fair bit below 100*10^4 kt^2. Things may be changing though, especially with La Nina struggling to develop. At the time of this original post, Tropical Storm Meranti has just developed, and it may go on to be a very powerful typhoon. WV loop above will continue to update and stay current.
  23. 1900hurricane
    The Pacific jet showing up in medium range guidance sure is nice looking. As others have alluded to across various media, this could help make things rather active later on in June.
  24. 1900hurricane
    Looks like today's 12Z GFS and ECMWF runs highlight two different return flow scenarios. This run of the ECMWF looks considerably more robust with its modeled warm sector when compared to this particular GFS run. The 570 dam thickness of the former lies across Texas while the latter depicts it still well offshore in the Gulf. Lots of variability still. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  25. 1900hurricane
    Maybe one last chance for 2015?
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