1900hurricane
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WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ, 0, 137N, 1251E, 170, 884, ST, 34, NEQ, 90, 80, 70, 110, 1003, 165, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, X, 245, 13, GONI, D, WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ, 0, 137N, 1251E, 170, 884, ST, 50, NEQ, 60, 60, 45, 70, 1003, 165, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, X, 245, 13, GONI, D, WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ, 0, 137N, 1251E, 170, 884, ST, 64, NEQ, 40, 35, 20, 50, 1003, 165, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, X, 245, 13, GONI, D, -
And now we have double T8.0s from JMA and JTWC.
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Posted this a few hours ago, but it isn't like anything has really changed since then aside from the eye continuing to clear out.
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155+ kt landfall looks virtually guaranteed at this point.
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Thanks, I appreciate it! In this particular case, I think it's worth noting that the shear is coming below the anvil level, which can also be seen around 150 mb in the same sounding with opposite(ish) direction winds from the shearing layer. Might make it tricky to see it well on WV.
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Oh hey, that's me!
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Severe Weather May 20-25, 27th, 2020
1900hurricane replied to Quincy's topic in Central/Western States
That is an angry storm complex. -
It's not so much the CAPE values themselves as it is how tall the CAPE profile is. It extends past 100 mb and off the top of the SHARPpy skew-T. The output on the far right of the same table that displays the CAPE and other values shows the parcel should finally stop rising almost 18 km up! Lifting a saturated parcel that high releases a huge amount of latent heat.
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Eyewall replacement has completed, but ENE shear is beginning to make itself known. Recent microwave imagery shows it eating away at the structure on the eastern side. When viewing water vapor imagery, the thunderstorm anvils to the east of Amphan clearly show the shear vector. The shear direction may become slightly more favorable as guidance shows it gaining a more southerly component as Amphan moves north, but that should be canceled out by the increasing magnitude over the same time frame. My expectation is that Amphan will be weakening from here on out.
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Eyewall replacement is now under way, and some of the first signs are beginning to show up on IR. Amphan is still just an absolute convective mauler though. A nearby sounding from the Nicobar Islands has the EL above 100 mb.
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Vongfong has managed to intensify into a compact category 3 typhoon. Earlier forecasts had it passing just north of Samar, but I don't think it's going to avoid the island at this point. Between it and some of the solutions for 91B, it appears the NHEM tropics are beginning to wake up for the season.
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Severe Weather April 28-29th 2020
1900hurricane replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
Critical angles are expected to be absurdly large (approaching a full 180º) which may keep the tornado threat fairly low even with a discrete cell since there won't be much streamwise vorticity to ingest. Give the instability/shear combo, especially as the low level jet ramps up around sunset, the damaging wind threat does look very real.
