WxWatcher007

I know tropical is an imby sport to most here, but some do forget that we have Atlantic Canada posters too. While the pattern isn’t conducive for the EC, the maritimes have more wiggle room and NS and especially Newfoundland are still squarely in watch territory right now. The exact parabolic curve matters to them.

I mean…this says it all.

The Atlantic ridging may actually be doable. Erin has been south of modeled so far and the trend toward a stronger ridge seems to have some legs (though the GFS was always underdoing it imo). The issue is later--that UL steering pattern over the EC in the long range is anything but a NE landfall look--as folks have said. If that massive trough in Canada can be blunted and the ridging in the Atlantic continues to look stronger...then maybe we're talking.

The trend today has been a further south track and that seems more plausible given the convective trend tonight with Erin but generally agree. Still a long way to go.

Remember that you need two huge changes to occur: 1) the Atlantic ridge is substantially stronger for longer to push Erin deeper into the SW Atlantic AND 2) A cutoff trough at the right time to pull it up the coast, which also requires that Canadian troughing showing up in the long range across guidance to essentially be replaced with a ridge or at least something that isn't screaming NW flow. Not impossible, but that is a very tall task. @CoastalWxwe go all winter and summer with ridges, SW flow, and trough de-amplification and as soon as there's a tropical system that all goes poof. San Diego

18z GFS more in line with Euro. I do wonder how much more change that ridge can take. Again, even if it means nothing for us (likely) if there is troughing diving to our west that opens the door for Hazey and the crew.

Yes. That massive trough the Euro is toying with will kick this if that materializes (and it’s unclear if it will to that extent)

I still think the GFS and its ensembles are too fast with the Atlantic ridge weakness, but we’d need substantial changes at medium range just to be a long shot in the ballgame for a close EC approach (saying nothing of the maritimes).

Just a monster. I mean look at this. 12z And 00z Life support is probably putting it kindly though watch out Atlantic Canada..

Sad to hear that but congrats on grad school! I still kick around the idea of going back for a met degree but I think that ship has sailed. Maybe some sort of a certificate though to enhance my forecasting knowledge.

Let’s get the pick ‘em going!

Yes, folks here are always too quick to cancel, but we gotta be honest—you would need a lot to happen to make this a bona fide EC threat that this point. You will see this on ensembles—which are the better option for analysis—but I’m using the op because it’s easier to see. The troughing signal to our west is obviously important to having any chance but it’s poorly timed, poorly positioned, and too slow to cut off. That can change at this range but that’s a secondary issue. The first and most fundamental issue is that the weakness in Atlantic ridging is happening way way way too early. It’s basically turning near Bermuda. That weakness isn’t out in weenie range. And while to Pope’s point it can change (and I think the GFS is too early with the weakness), whenever you’re asking a lot of the steering conditions in tropical, it usually doesn’t work out. So while it’s not over technically, the odds of a U.S. hit are looking increasingly small imo. Last thing I’ll say though is that even with the super ensemble the longer range members tend to be underdispursive. If that troughing in the eastern US is real I’d watch in Atlantic Canada. They’ve actually done exceptionally well with these kind of setups in recent years.

The next time Wiz complains about every swirl getting named by the NHC I'll just show him this. IR, surface obs, and sat wind estimates have had this a TC for a good portion of the day.

Great Lakes low torches the mid levels. 35 and pouring rain.

Keep the troughs away so we can get some tropical

High of 91 here at home

Now those definitely produce.

The folks that like tracking modeled snowstorms more than watching actual snow falling should enjoy this

CVs are the worst. Give me homebrew any day.

I mean we're talking about something beyond 10 days out. I hope people aren't taking it seriously

Euro is going to be very close as 97L misses the initial trough (again about 7-8 days out) and Atlantic ridging builds back in.

Problem is the same stalled front is also the kicker. In my mind, the simplest setup is a tropical wave developing closer to the Antilles, getting pushed into hugging the Bahamas or moving just NE of there by a ridge, and getting captured. Again, CVs are exceptionally tricky. That's a lot of expanse to cross without getting recurved. It's easy to forget, but 1938 had a "high latitude" track...but ended up near the Bahamas. 90% of this subforum would be cancelling looking at how far north of the islands that track is. 1938 Bob Gloria Donna Carol 1944 @Quincy wrote about this years ago and it's still just as useful.

I posted about this elsewhere, but I am modestly intrigued by the weak disturbance off the west coast of FL. Models do nothing with it, but it seems ideally positioned with an anti-cyclone overhead allowing for strong divergence and weak shear.

Now for the new... Tropical Overview 8/10/25 1. Invest 97L We're on the cusp of a true CV system developing, as 97L continues to organize just off the African Coast. It's still plenty disorganized, and is going to run into a cooler SST environment as it pops northwest (as posted above) but it's looking like one of the rare CVs set to develop in the basin. Ridging in the Atlantic will push this west, but how far west is TBD Ensembles more or less agree that this will got to the northeast of the Antilles, but from there we have significant divergence based on whether there are any troughs imparting a weakness on the amplitude of the Atlantic ridge. That's the key part to all of this, and it cannot be resolved at this range, though with each day we learn a little more. If I had to place a lean on it, I would say OTS or Atlantic Canada due to how much latitude it gains by 60W, but there's a long way to go. 2. Weak disturbance off FL Coast This is more of a curiosity for me than anything, but there's a weak disturbance that's currently ideally positioned off the west coast of Florida. Obviously, SSTs are boiling but that's not enough to pique my interest. The disturbance is parked under an anti-cyclone, which provides the benefit of 1) upper divergence that maintains deep convection and 2) very low shear The models don't do much with it, but if it had some time maybe it could become a little interesting? The big limiting factor is probably time, and the lack of a more robust surface reflection. Vorticity is modest, but that's not enough.

Figure it's time to look at this again to see what happened. 1. Invest 95L became Dexter, so that was a good call. 2. The follow up disturbance off the East Coast never materialized, and was probably one of the worst forecasts I've had. As for why it gave a head fake, I think a combination of shear and dry air (the opposite of what I expected) kept convection from organizing and even generating on a consistent basis. Awful, awful call. 3. The central Atlantic wave became 96L, but this call wasn't much better either. Simply put, MDR stability got it. It has been meandering for days in the open Atlantic, unable to generate consistent convection and organize. Not a good start.