WxWatcher007

I'd say having the initial development happen further southwest in warmer waters, which could allow for the low at the start to have more tropical characteristics (deeper warm core, persistent convection closer to the center, banding features). The further north it heads however the more purely baroclinic it's going to be given SSTs, and the capture would just hasten the full transition to a typical extratropical nor'easter. At the end of the day however, the impacts wouldn't be substantively different unless this were leaning tropical and then scooting north imo. All that said, I think it's unlikely to ever be designated, even if it looked good. Recent history shows that the NHC tends to be slow on these. Did you know that October 2021 became Subtropical Storm Wanda? It was designated days after it delivered legitimate C1 wind gusts and damage to the coast. Last September saw a low that was probably subtropical given its appearance in its final hours before "landfall", but it never got designated. Quite a temperature contrast. For the most part, our region is much warmer than normal, but this is what it gets you. Isn't 24C around the usual line for subtropical development?

Total deluge especially ENE areas

Absolutely. A stronger low with a graze track does nothing for most of us. The hook west is key to expanding and extending impacts.

Easy money C5

Walt, it's good to hear from you. I hope all is well. As you know, the signal for something developing off the coast has been there for a few days now, and as we get closer in time I am becoming a touch more bullish. I think the odds are low that we see an officially designated subtropical storm, but I am intrigued by some of the guidance signals between the Google DeepMind, EPS, and Euro/GFS AI. This is a highly uncommon thing for us up in the Mid-Atlantic and New England to see in September, even if it remains non-tropical. Currently I think the impacts are around what you describe. If the Euro suite is to be believed, we would see strong winds, prolonged easterly fetch causing significant coastal flooding, especially if the storm is still potent around astronomical high tides later in the week, and potentially significant rainfall. I'll note that part of southern Connecticut has been inundated recently with rainfall and flash flooding, and although this rain would likely last over days, if it is potent with a tropical tap banding into the state could cause serious issues. This is one to watch IMO. Regardless of official designation.

It may be a tricky setup but it’s not almost a week away. Follow the ensembles and proceed with caution.

Euro deluge

Probably out of time, but it was a good effort lol.

We don’t look at the GFS, but it’s a damn good hit. AI twin is west too.

Yeah I think you’re right based on the latest IR.

IR presentation is still fine--it looks like it's trying again to clear out an eye. I haven't seen satellite estimates come up however, and that may go a long way toward keeping this below hurricane status. Not sure. There's still time but the clock is ticking.

We like.

Way too early to get fully on board, but it's worthy of discussion. The signal for a storm of some sort has been there for a while.

NHC forecast is now for Fay to become a hurricane in 12 hours. Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 A few more convective bursts have occurred near the center of Fay in the last couple of hours as seen in the visible satellite imagery. Infrared satellite imagery indicates that some of the cloud tops have cooled to near -70 degrees C with the latest batch of convection. The current objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 45-51 kt, and the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was a T3.5/55 kt. Based on the given data, the initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt, on the upper end of the satellite estimates. The environment that Fay is located in still has moisture for additional convective development and an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should allow for Fay to further intensify for about 12 hours or so. Once the trough lifts on Monday, wind shear should increase and dry air should find its way into the cyclone. This will lead to a gradual weakening of Fay. The current NHC intensity forecast calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday and then dissipate near the end of the week. The intensity forecast is still a little higher than the model guidance in the short term as Fay's structure is over performing expectations due to the expected baroclinic support from the trough. It is still possible that Fay could reach hurricane strength sometime tonight. Fay is still moving slowly and off toward the north-northeast, with the initial motion estimated around 020/5 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for about 12 hours or. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north by Monday. This ridge in turn will force Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC forecast track is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI track aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 34.4N 32.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 34.3N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 33.6N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 32.5N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 31.4N 35.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z 29.0N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch

There are some nasty members on the AI guidance, including GDM, which despite some challenges in the Atlantic this season has still performed better than any model. We'd take.

The lower bound of my forecast was .50” and even that seems generous now. Only .11” here on the day.

I had to do a double take to make sure I had the right storm. Clearly making a run now. Another deep burst may be enough to get over the top.

Look at Fay…

Well, last season they were right

Yeah good hits from Euro twins.

Get it out of the way now before winter sets in? Preemptive ?

Fay is actually overperforming. NHC now saying it's going to be close to hurricane strength.

Regardless of status, the models really do have persistently strong onshore flow for days over the region. As long as this doesn't trend 500nm east or turn into a pumpkin, someone along the coast may have some trouble.

Thought about a thread too but will keep discussion here. I think a mod could always move these posts to a thread for posterity if Fay pulls off something crazy. It's a very narrow window but as y'all stated it's in one of where it can take off. That'd obviously be fantastic for my peak season forecast. Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 Deep convection continues to build near the center of Fay over the last several hours. The current objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 39-52 kt, and the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was a T3.0/45 kt. In addition, there was an ASCAT pass that showed a peak wind vector of 43 kt. Given the uncertainties due to undersampling, the initial intensity for the storm has been raised to 50 kt. The cyclone continues to remain very compact with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend out to about 40 n mi. Both a relatively moist environment and positive interactions with an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should allow Fay to further intensify for the next 12 to 24 hours. After the trough lifts on Monday, the increase in wind shear and dry air should lead to a gradual weakening of the cyclone. The current NHC forecast calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday and then dissipate by the end of the week. The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the model guidance in the short term to account for the storm's structure being more improved and the expected baroclinic support from the trough. This small system could approach hurricane strength later today or tonight. Fay is slowly moving off to the northeast, with the initial motion estimated around 010/5 kt. This general motion should continue for the rest of the day. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north of the storm by Monday, which will cause Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in that direction over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with HCCA and GDMI. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 34.1N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 34.3N 32.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 33.9N 32.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 32.9N 32.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 31.7N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 30.6N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 29.8N 37.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 28.8N 41.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch