WxWatcher007

I wouldn’t put any stock in verbatim storm depictions (I know you know this), but it does look like the pattern lends itself to a few cold shots that could bring first flakes as more nuisance/novelty stuff.

Yeah first third of November doesn’t look that warm to me. In fact, I think we have a good chance for first measurable (.1”) away from the coast.

Low of 29.5° at WXW1

I leave a good amount behind. Some of that is by choice—it’s been great for summertime biodiversity in my backyard. I mulch as much as I can but full leaves work too if I put them near my tree line. Some of that is because the trees drop at different times and I don’t have the time or will to get back there several times in November. It’s beautiful in October, but a pain in November.

How good is the cyclone rake? Every year I say I’m going to get something to deal with these leaves and I don’t.

We take. I think.

My wife gets viscerally angry about this.

Seems like it was barely measurable at WXW2, but .1” puts me on the board and there are no complaints about that.

Gusted to 30 and my anemometer is at 7ft.

Is it ok to track both my locations this winter?

My wife reports a car topper. We're on the board, people! 33.3 at WXW2.

Now that Melissa is gone I’ve moved from tropical to late fall mode. With one of my locations now being SLK I’d love to post here too representing the western portion of the BTV NWS area, if y’all will have me.

Incredible that the season—an extraordinarily condensed one—ended with possibly the strongest Atlantic landfall in recorded history.

Same, though I started around mid-month. I’ve had 4 freezes this month and several other nights in the mid 30s. I’m considering getting a wood stove for my living room to warm the house and reduce my gas usage this winter.

1.14” 996.0mb

Now at 1.02”

Just crossed .75 here in EH. Still pouring out.

I plan to once my wife and I close. Will be back here in CT for work from time to time. And maybe a coastal or two.

I’m still skeptical of gusts 55+ Especially inland

Beautiful location

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1220 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 332 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025 Areas affected...northern NJ into southern NY/Long Island and CT Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 301931Z - 310125Z Summary...Heavy rain across the Tri-State Area through this evening may result in localized flooding/flash flooding. Localized rainfall totals over 3 inches will be possible. Rainfall near 1 inch in 15-30 minutes can be expected. Discussion...19Z radar imagery showed a low-topped squall-line, oriented from south to north, edging east from 40 miles east of ACY through NYC. This line was being aided by strong low level convergence with 45-50 kt from the SSE/SE in the 925-850 mb layer, located north of the triple point of an occluded cyclone over the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The line of showers has been accompanied by 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rain in 15 minutes across northern NJ into the Five Boroughs. Moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast into southern New England was already anomalous as sampled by area 12Z RAOBs, with PWAT values of 1.2 to 1.5 inches. However, OSPO's ALPW has since shown an increase stemming from Melissa's circulation, especially near and below 700 mb, being drawn northward into NJ and southern NY. The continued addition of this remnant tropical moisture should allow for an increase in rainfall efficiency and locally higher rainfall rate potential into the early evening hours. While the line of showers has been progressive, there is some concern for very brief slowing/stalling given the LEWP-like appearance off the NJ coast, which could result in a quick 1-2 inches as this line continues to advance east through the remainder of the afternoon. As a triple point low becomes better organized south of Long Island this evening, low level flow will maintain a southeasterly orientation, with possible backing. Therefore, some orographic component to lift will be added into the equation for the higher terrain north and west of I-95, combining with increasing right-entrance jet ascent associated with a forecast 130 kt jet streak on the east side of the parent upper low to the west. Farther south and west, instability is expected to remain weak (briefly peaking in the 500-1000 J/kg range) but perhaps sufficient to support a few additional heavy showers from eastern PA and southern NJ, rotating northward into the Tri-State region. Additional rainfall may result in isolated areas of rapid inundation of water. Given below average rainfall over the past few weeks and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the region, any flooding that occurs is likely to remain constrained to urban or other areas with poor drainage. Otto ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...OKX...PHI...

NYC getting smoked right now

27 is nuts. WPAC is just a whole different universe in high end TCs.