WxWatcher007

Yeah, up here for this one. That's beautiful. Let's keep amping lol.

Don't love the cutback out here, but if we can avoid Arctic sand and get excellent ratios we'll get crushed too.

I already have four…well three, I lost one in a storm chase a few years ago. It’s coming. The question will be if it’s real.

Mmm mmm good, BTV Bolded the important parts. I knew it, @powderfreak. As northern/southern stream energy phases double barrel low pres with strong cad signature on lee-side of the Appalachians Mtns develops on Sunday. The mid lvl ascent associated with an axis of moderate to strong 7h fgen forcing wl shift from the mid Atlantic states toward central New England on Sunday night, while potent northern stream energy moves directly overhead. This synoptic scale lift and advection of deeper sub-tropical over our very cold air mass in place wl produce a period of moderate snowfall with high fluff factor. Did note even in the drier GFS sounding profiles an extremely deep DGZ from the sfc thru 22,000 feet with near saturation in terms of ice in the cloud. This moisture/thermal profiles indicate the potential for big time fluff factor acrs our cwa, which could result in higher snowfall totals if enough moisture is present. Snow ratios could be in the 20 to 25 to 1 ratio. The primary impacts would be difficult travel late Sunday into Monday, with moderate snowfall rates and very low visibilities. NBM indicates probability of 7 inches or more of 60% or greater along and south of a OGS to BTV to 1V4, with 60 to 80% or higher for snowfall of at least 4 inches or more. Mid/upper lvl trof along with some mid lvl goodies for enhanced synoptic scale ascent lingers into Monday night with additional light snowfall likely, that is why the watch is thru 06z Tues. This lagging energy causes sfc low pres to stretch and linger just east of MA, which could result in light snow prevailing into Tues, especially as northwest upslope flow develops. Eventually moisture decreases and snow showers taper off. Temps wl continue to be much below normal for Sunday through the middle of next week, especially Sunday into Monday with cold northerly sfc winds and plenty of cloud cover.

Yeah, it got issued right after it passed through here. SLK reported ground visibility of .13 and VV of 500 ft. Got clipped by a second, which was warned to the south. That wasn't as robust here.

I’m glad my wife wasn’t home because all I did was yell HOLY SHIT and ran out of the house.

I know this is a little OT, but oh my GOD, I just had an epic squall roll through here. Pure whiteout conditions. I ran outside barely clothed. Let’s bring hours of this for all Sunday-Monday Absolute weenie dream in some of the numbers being spit out.

It's probably just going to take time to update their afternoon package. Watches are coming for all in SNE and probably even CNE soon. It's about damn time.

Just throw as much precip as possible back our way and north country climo will handle the rest.

Good stuff @wxmvpete

2” in East Hartford.

2.0 as of 10:30

Per Ken Graham, this is going to be the first time they run wintertime recon in the Pacific and Gulf. Big Dog FTW

Man, it's gonna be fun to get into meso range with this one.

Hey there--resident tropical weenie here. Recon can incredibly useful, as it provides hard observations for areas that may not be sampled as well as they would be over the U.S., which in turn makes the initial conditions the models rely on to make their projections more accurate. So here, since they're sampling that Baja energy, it'll probably aid in more precisely projecting its intensity and speed. We're so close to the event that I doubt it makes a huge difference, but it just closes off one of the unknowns. Hope that helps.

At least 1.3” here yesterday into today. More coming.

Only “concern” at this point is Arctic sand cutting ratios. We may be snowing around 0F here. That said, the qpf numbers are compelling. Region wide crushah, just like the ones I used to know.

Yep, and look at the catastrophic ice progs in the South. My goodness.

I’d sign for the Euro right now. It’s beautiful all the way up here.

The geographic scale of this storm is just so impressive. Euro should cook.

At 33.5 at WXW1, but the radar looks great. Snowing nicely on camera.

Keep in mind that I think the recon Baja low data is only in the GFS and Euro at 00z, so I'd probably wait to see what the Euro does to assess the full suite and whether the other models are out of alignment with the GFS/Euro.

Big dog waiting to be unleashed

We gotta get back into high gear. Mid-Atlantic has 4x the weenies in their thread right now. Even the southeast forum is beating us.

Wil be interesting to see if there's a substantive change in the 500h evolution with the recon data on the Baja low added.