WxWatcher007

Yes, yes it is. Doesn’t change anything for me, though I wouldn’t fly around the world for it.

Hopefully as much time as I can. Things quiet down for me in the winter so I'm hoping we can get settled quickly--though EH and CT will remain my full time location during the year overall as I have my job here. I look at the BTV site every week. I'm pretty sure eventually I'll get annoyed at the lack of big synoptic events, but I was surprised by the frequency of below zero days up there. I just hope I don't bring a +10 DJF and historic snow futility. I'm legit nervous about something stupid like that. Even so, with this being the first year I haven't had a tropical chase, unless it's a holiday I'm hoping to be all in on some kind of epic winter chase.

I can't speak for any other chaser, but I've followed wx all my life and the first time I went on a chase (for snow) I knew it was going to be a core piece of my life for as long as I could make it so. Yes, there is something a little crazy about traveling thousands of miles to chase wx and be in disaster zones, but it goes well beyond just experiencing the overwhelming power of nature, though I suspect none of us would do it if that wasn't first. I'm never more focused in my life than when I'm on a chase, especially tropical. Days before a storm even arrives I'm forecasting, figuring logistics, and preparing. It's all consuming and there's a peace to be found in that. There have been very few storms where I wasn't spontaneously needed either, especially as I became good at chasing. Whether it's comforting an elderly couple in Helene, telling a hotel manager when to lock things down in Laura, helping staff check on hotel occupants in Beryl as the windows were blowing in, spending hours digging a man out of a snow bank in an epic LES event, or carrying kids from a car stuck in water in Florence, knowing what to do and how to respond to the people impacted is meaningful too. Sometimes you're the only one who can (safely). Respect the storm, respect the people, and don't make yourself the story. Ever.

We had a few epic modeling collapses. The Joker January thread tells the story in gruesome detail. I hopped off the runaway train of futility early. I'm still in East Hartford full time, but my wife recently got a job in Saranac Lake. Will be splitting time PIT 1 and PIT 2 style (WXW1=East Hartford/WXW2=Saranac Lake), but hoping to spend most of my winter up there. Unless of course the atmosphere wants to throw a CT jackpot KU or two my way out of jealousy.

Yes. I'm sitting this winter out. Seriously. I'm zipping it and falling back to obs, pictures, and Arctic blast talk. While I appreciate pattern discussion no matter the season, we've had a lot of epic winter patterns that have resulted in middling to objectively awful results this decade. I canceled last winter the first week in January after that epic modeling collapse, and even with 3.8" to date I still thought 27-31" was doable in deference to the pattern. I finished with 19.8". I just can't do it anymore. Winter has fallen to my least favorite season, and it has some work to do to get out of the dog house. Hopefully, my location change this winter will help.

Let’s just make sure it’s not a two week cold period with no production. I can’t get on board with pattern talk anymore. I need results.

Fitting for this all time hurricane

We stopped talking about Melissa here but sure enough it looks like a hit is on the table for Atlantic Canada. St. John’s may get a good storm.

That’s incredible. It’ll take a long time to recover.

Must have been some poor group of vessels in the path of it?

Some of the worst on record. I’m tired of it.

From Michael Lowry

Maybe that system that tries to dive down into the Gulf tries, but I still stand by my August forecast that the season halts in October. You have to get something tangible to those climo favored regions to generate a TC and I don’t think that’s likely.

Disastah

2:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 Location: 19.7°N 76.4°W Moving: NE at 10 mph Min pressure: 952 mb Max sustained: 125 mph

With recon done I doubt there are any new updates to intensity outside of whatever they decide at 2am.

Not sure how much time it has left, but it’s really trying to intensify.

Given how light the wind was, even if it missed by a touch I would bet it doesn’t make much of a difference.

Center sonde has a 954mb reading with 6kt wind so despite the satellite appearance, it hasn’t translated into strength in a substantial way yet. Obviously still need to see the SW and NE quadrants.

Not impossible given the dropsonde just before landfall, but there’s going to be an extensive review of all the data and observations to determine the final intensity of this one. This may very well be the strongest Atlantic hurricane in recorded history.

Thanks. Maybe it’s a mid level feature working its way down. That radar and the rapidly improving IR would suggest that Melissa is reorganizing rapidly. Will take a bit to intensify imo, and nothing meaningful will happen intensity wise if the eyewall isn’t fully closed.

Very interesting and conflicting data. This was from the VDM. Very quick recon trip. Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000 FT PA NO EYE EVIDENT ON RADAR