WxWatcher007

I’ve been talking about the window for development off the SE coast since late August. 99L was the first manifestation of that window. The window has stayed open despite the oscillating model signals and now we have this orange that does look increasingly likely to do something. Probably will start a thread shortly.

While there's nothing concrete yet, the area off the SE coast is now an orange with 40% odds of development. In the next 48 hours, a non-tropical low is increasingly likely to develop along a stalled boundary--a common method of tropical genesis in the homebrew region. With a ridge building over the top of the boundary, it looks like anything that develops is likely to get steered toward the coast. It's a fairly uncertain evolution as the non-tropical low could develop tropical characteristics this weekend/early next week, become subtropical, or stay nontropical. I think what is different between this one and 99L, which almost became tropical but then went extratropical and hit Nova Scotia is 1) this is likely to develop much further south in a more tropical rather than baroclinic environment, and 2) that the ridging to the north is likely to prevent an escape route. Where it goes is still a bit unclear, but the model look right now is somewhere along the Carolina coast and then possibly NW into the region. For something not terribly far out, there's a lot to be determined.

What’s folks will miss about this is that it was a flip from early season. The early season was defined by unusually strong waves but then things flipped as SAL peaked and you had this ITCZ feedback loop of north based waves constantly pumping SAL and stability into the tropical Atlantic. I know there’s a HC discussion to be had here too as Tip has mentioned before but that truthfully goes over my head.

I’d say this would be the greatest seasonal bust of my lifetime but I don’t know meteorological history like @ORH_wxman. But if we are tracking whatever—while I think the MDR can be flushed closer to home is looking more interesting IMO. Seems like the favorable homebrew window that I talked about pre 99L is going to remain open for the foreseeable future. Hybrid or tropical if we can get something to pop off the SE coast or in the western Caribbean rather than where 99L did.

Another one. Gordon in the eastern Atlantic. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 15 (2) Hurricanes: 10 (1) Major Hurricanes: 5 (0)

Meh is right. Maybe the Euro weeklies will be right in shifting the peak season ACE to ~Sept 23-mid October but I’ve written off the MDR at this point. Also, for all the NHC names everything crowd out there, 94L says hello.

With Francine disposed of, I’m finally on the board…on September 12 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 15 (1) Hurricanes: 10 (1) Major Hurricanes: 5 (0)

That’s why I don’t usually chase at the immediate coastline. I prefer wind, not water. (Except for Florence lol)

Looks like the signal has faded substantially but the general environment looks conducive for some kind of genesis—tropical or baroclinic.

From my vantage point it was a legit hurricane but most got through fine wind wise. A lot of outages and modest damage, but that’s to be expected with an intensifying 2 at landfall imo.

Peak season forecast going down in flames. MDR might as well be another planet. Nice job on the track. I think once we saw lightning going off upshear that should’ve told us what was coming. Having a FL wind of 106kt at landfall is pretty wild. That said…if this were 2020 or ‘05 or any true high end season that thing would’ve taken off as soon as it developed that first inner core off the Mexico coast and not looked back. Dry air be damned. I think it’s true that this is a quality over quantity season, but far from hyperactive or high end as a season.

I didn’t end up in the center, but this hurricane was legit in the region. Flash flood emergencies through metropolitan New Orleans (top ten daily rainfall) along with multiple hurricane force gusts in SE LA. Not like the monsters Ida and Laura, but a solid cane in its own right with RI up through landfall. The last FL wind I saw was 106kt and I saw a report of a 97mph gust west of NO. That’s impressive considering where this thing was structurally last night.

Flashes all night here

Just recorded a gust of 40.1mph

Business definitely picking up now lol

Business picking up…

Pressure here down to 1001mb with the wind gradually picking up. Nothing that impressive yet other than the clouds off the deck absolutely screaming by. Edit: but the power is flickering more

Last VDM had a FL wind of 102kt so despite the conditions Francine more than held its own until landfall. Impressive.

Pressure starting to fall a bit as winds pick up. First time it’s looked tropical out.

Francine up to cat 2

Category two now with max sustained winds of 100mph

This is quite impressive given the environment. Definitely defying the guidance that had decay at landfall.