WxWatcher007

Speaks to how much uncertainty that there still is with where the low goes. Shortly after this we’ll be tracking the possible CAG and development in the western Caribbean. The MDR is a lost cause but the homebrew regions continue to look ripe the next few weeks.

Found this interesting from the 8pm advisory. It seems that they don’t have a real heading currently and now it’s likely to become tropical rather than subtropical. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 77.8 West. The system has been moving erratically this evening, but the disturbance is expected to start moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) overnight. On the forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast within the warning area on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow morning and some strengthening is possible before the system makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

True, but the mid level feature does look dominant right now. Agree on the SST drop limiting whatever potential there is.

That’s quite a robust mid-level feature on radar. Even seeing some lightning in the convection there. It still has some time over the warmest waters off the coast, so we’ll see if that feature is able to become fully tropical. It looks like it’s getting there. I didn’t expect that pocket of low shear.

Especially odd given how quiet the season has been on balance.

I haven’t been able to follow much today but recon, radar, and satellite paint an interesting picture. It may not be all the way there given the apparent misalignment of the LLC and MLC, but this is looking more tropical given the MLC potentially becoming the true center and being aligned under deeper convection. Center reformations here can impact landfall location obviously so I’d say there’s a modest amount of uncertainty still for both track and perhaps intensity to a degree. Seems like a classic close-to-the-coast homebrew system.

If it can get a designation at all I think the lack of time makes subtropical the only viable option but we’ll see. No real difference in impacts.

G3 possible this week https://www.spaceweather.gov/news/strong-g3-geomagnetic-storms-are-likely-16-september-2024

Here you go: Looking at 925mb vorticity you can see the boundary clearly and the quickly increasing vorticity along it when compared to earlier today.

If only.

Looks pretty similar to the ICON with a further north track, but it never really gets inland.

Really throws a lot of moisture into the region. The ICON (which has gained some respect from me in its handling of Beryl and Francine) is further north in the low track and quite wet as well.

High resolution models like the NAM and HRRR aren’t designed for potential tropical entities. I’d lean on global models and ensembles.

Wrapping up Francine. It’s still wild to me that I chase. There’s really nothing like it.

I can’t stand y’all

It always is if folks are looking for 1938. But if you’re just looking for activity near the US, the pattern doesn’t look terrible. There may be a CAG signal starting to show for late month in the western Caribbean as well. This is a homebrew season I guess.

Yep, maybe a CAG signal there. I think this is a ripe pattern for something along the eastern Gulf or East Coast.

I think there’s still a lot to be ironed out with this one, so even a model consensus right now could shift depending on where the low forms. There’s not a tangible low yet but that should change by tonight as the boundary is now offshore and firing scattered convection.

Even though we’re relatively close in, I’d still use the ensembles to a degree. There’s still a lot of spread along the coast, even up to the Mid-Atlantic. Not any real strong members at this time. It will be interesting though to see if the GFS is a little stronger at 00z. I think the Euro is playing catch up again.

It’s why I like the homebrew region so much. CVs can be pretty and all but if you want impacts, give me something much further west. Maybe nothing comes of it but one of the reasons why I’m intrigued by the general pattern we’ve had in the east and off the east coast recently is because if something pops it doesn’t look like a cut and dry OTS pattern. But something has to form…

I guess any little bit would help

Started a thread in the main forum but sharing here. MA impacts are possible so definitely worth some conversation. How’s the drought since Debby’s rains?

Although we do not have an established low pressure yet, the NHC is designating the area off the southeast coast an orange with 40% odds of development. Given how quickly the timeline for development could be, I think it’s worth separating out the discussion. 1. Offshore the Southeastern U.S.: A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline this weekend. Thereafter, the low may develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Those following know that I’ve been talking about the southeast coast since late August. I view this latest homebrew development as part of a broader window that has been open since early September—a window open due to repeated troughing in the east that has left stalled and quasi-stalled frontal boundaries off the coast. We saw it with 99L, which did not develop but brought rain and wind to Nova Scotia as an unusually strong late summer extratropical (read: baroclinic) low. We then had a follow up wave after 99L that quickly moved OTS. Now we’re looking at another stalled boundary off the coast and a non-tropical low (or two) that looks increasingly likely to develop along the boundary. The one we care about looks to develop off the Carolina coast. Again it’s non-tropical at the start but as the boundary decays it’s possible the low acquires tropical characteristics or becomes subtropical. The model signal has ebbed and flowed, but has come back today—and unlike 99L I think this has a better chance. 1) Unlike 99L, this is likely forming further south and west than 99L, in a more tropical environment. 2) With ridging likely to build over the top and some troughing to the west, this is likely to be steered into the US. Now, we’re not talking about a major hurricane or anything like that, especially with shear possible nearby, but strong winds and coastal flooding seem likely. We’ll have to watch for intensity trends this weekend.