WxWatcher007

This is pre NHC update, but eastern areas are in line to get hit really hard. Keep in mind though that the hurricane intensity models make the wind field more symmetrical upon landfall. West of eyewall is likely to get hit hard too.

I read somewhere earlier this season that the NHC was reviewing the SFMR generally because of measurement issues. I’ll see if I can find where that came from.

Center sonde was 960mb with a 7kt wind.

It’s going to be extremely bad there.

My wife prefers I come home. I prefer wind. Storm chasing. I’ve documented a variety of hurricanes/blizzards/severe around the country (and Canada once) for almost a decade now. Usually my stuff gets picked up by outlets but for tropical, my chief passion, I love to forecast, document, and measure the impact of hurricanes.

Yeah, this is actually my second time here (Idalia). The road network provides me with quick options and yeah, definitely most developed in the area. I don’t have any interest in being in a surge zone so I’m typically more inland. Also, WPC has significantly expanded the high risk to include much of GA, including metro Atlanta.

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking right now.

Decided to hang in Perry for now but will reassess a little later when I have a better long term motion of the eye. For now, a bit far but obviously getting closer. Activity has definitely picked up around here as Helene approaches. Stay safe everyone in the path.

At the landfall point it’s a touch west of the 5am advisory but still east of the 11pm advisory. We shall see…this is a nowcast at this point.

Speaking to the asymmetrical wind field. Seeing 114kt at that height is interesting.

One of the main differences from a few days ago is that the hurricane intensity models really peak this as it’s making landfall. That has its own implications if correct with regard to mixing winds down, but those models really crank the east side while only making the wind field more symmetrical this afternoon and evening. HWRF as an example, even if a bit overdone, I’m looking at structure here.

One more. Tail Doppler is extremely helpful.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast this evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). The Key West Naval Air Station recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h). An observation in Sand Key recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

Still have time for wobbles and changes west or east. See the image from the poster yesterday that had a mean 12 hour track error of 22 miles. It’s nothing in the global scheme of things but makes a huge difference locally. I didn’t buy the west tracks either but I won’t feel confident until hours from now.

Seeing more tor warnings pop. Maybe a CC drop west of Hilton Head.

Open to the west now.

There are two recon missions ongoing now, and one that is making an east to west pass is reporting FL winds between 99-104kt. Intensification is still going.

Eyewall starting to show up on Key West radar.

Latest VDM now shows a closed circular eye at 32nm diameter. 8°C temperature contrast. Last VDM had concentric eyewalls open in the NE with the outer eyewall also at 32nm and a 6° temp contrast. Would like to see an even more organized eye at the next pass to know these changes have taken root (though it looks like it has). Edited to add: the western side looks weak but the eastern half is looking robust on both IR and recon.

965mb with an 11kt wind on the center sonde, so ~964mb. First pass had a 970mb pressure. Dropsonde in the SE eyewall had 69kt at the surface but for the first time we’re seeing 87kt at 925 and 97kt at 850mb.

Extrapolated center pressure of 963.3mb. On the last pass it was 967.7mb. Awaiting dropsonde for confirmed pressure.

They do call for additional strengthening in that 6hr period after reaching 115mph, but it’s unclear what they think the peak will be. Maybe down a bit but if we’re going from 90 to 115 today I’m guessing there’s going to be some intensity nowcasting happening.