WxWatcher007

Nothing wrong at all with a reprieve. 16-24 was brutal for the continental U.S. and this year has been bad for Hawaii.

Nobody knows how to have fun around here.

I completely forgot about the ice storm. All I knew then was tropical. We average somewhere between 100-125 at SLK so being above that is interesting. For 2015-16 winter was a disaster.

GDM really hasn’t budged much through all of the model flip flops. I think we have a good sense that this is going to be close to the coast, but intensity is still up in the air.

How was that winter in NNE?

It’s coming

I need hurricanes at this point. Just one or two, but preferably three.

Don’t worry. In a just a few short months we’ll be sitting in 40pg threads tracking a 1-3” clipper.

Funny thing is, if 1888 or 1938 happened again this place would be on fire with mehing, complaining, complaining about the complaining, and strife. I mean RI got a historic blizzard and pages of the thread were filled with all out warfare accordion man.

It’s a coastal rainstorm in September. Who is truly invested in this outside of the usual weenies? We can’t talk about weather around here?

Big Island may be in trouble again…

Looks wet on both models Saturday and Sunday, though not as bad as southern New England. Here's Saturday morning through early Monday afternoon: GFS Euro The exact specifics aren't really worth locking onto, just that the "trend" has been toward a closer approach of the storm and rainier weekend as a result for your purposes.

So much of this stuff depends on location and expectations. 925mb 18z GFS 12z Euro I'm not ready to post the Nammy but it was robust too.

He gone.

Hurricane Polo Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 100 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS POLO HAS STRENGTHENED EVEN MORE... Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds in Hurricane Polo have increased to near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure has dropped to 892 mb...26.34 inches. Polo is nearly stationary but is expected to move generally west-northwestward over the next couple of days. SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 101.5W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch/Hagen

And there’s your update Hurricane Polo Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 100 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS POLO HAS STRENGTHENED EVEN MORE... Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds in Hurricane Polo have increased to near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure has dropped to 892 mb...26.34 inches. Polo is nearly stationary but is expected to move generally west-northwestward over the next couple of days. SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 101.5W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch/Hagen

Yep. Still a long way to go with this one.

lol if this coastal became a DC hit people would lose it.

They don’t seem to like pulling the trigger north of the Carolinas. And if they did some people would probably call it hype lol.

I mean, we do want our weenie models to show big hits. Drunken runs of 970mb lows ripping down all the vegetation from the cape to the Hudson valley.

What a beaut. Third C5 of the season in the basin.

Ah, all good.

Euro and EPS. AI Euro and its ensembles. GDM and its ensembles. That’s a pretty good consensus but far from a slam dunk at this stage.

It’s in the envelope of possibilities, but man, it’s really on an island right now.