WxWatcher007

Eventually we’ll be back?

Two years in a row with the ICON having a coup. Last year it was first to latch onto the pattern that brought Beryl to the upper Texas coast. Thanks for posting. Yeah it wasn’t that I thought Imelda had peaked, it was more that the structure last night couldn’t keep long enough to allow for that level of intensification. The structure today has been substantially better, but not quite there.

Closing the book on September. I'll have an update on what to watch for in October tomorrow.

Nothing really impressive about Imelda on recon tonight. I think the already small opening for Imelda to turn major has closed. The interaction between these two will be a sight to behold though the next few days.

Northeast flow from the two hurricanes triggering flood advisories. Along the coast.

August was alright. September has been great—though I think this is the first one in a while where I didn’t have a chase opportunity. It’s coming in October though.

Ugh, 2020. The year of King Grinch.

This’ll be my best September for solar

From my peak season forecast: “As the EPS suggests, we could start seeing favorable conditions return even earlier in the peak period, but I think a conservative expectation of things to heat up with the MJO after the 20th is the best route. That would make the September 20-October 20 period most active.”

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (4) Hurricanes: 6 (3) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda (H)

Yeah not nearly as crisp a satellite presentation as even a few hours ago. FL winds continue to increase however.

The greatest sunset I'll probably ever see came as I was chasing Dorian in NC. The sky was on fire. There have been some good ones up here, but tonight was spectacular. The picture doesn't even do it justice.

Probably on the cusp of hurricane status now. Recon in there now.

Tropical outflow always delivers on sunsets.

New blow up of convection right over the center

Of course not lol

Why move to Florida when we can do sunny, dry, and AN without the humidity DJF?

Looking at the recent guidance, if I were going to highlight some areas of interest it would be the Gulf/SE Coast in the next week, the western Caribbean with a weak CAG signal in the 7-10 day period, and a tropical wave in the MDR in that same period. It looks pretty active--or at least there will be chances for TC genesis. Might do a post later about it. I track my peak season forecast numbers in the legacy Mid-Atlantic thread, but I'll post here too. Imelda likely gets me to 3 H or 50% of my forecast with three full weeks left (including today). It has an outside shot at MH, which may all but guarantee that I am too low on MH as I expect at least high end activity in October. Unfortunately for coastal residents, I still think a MH strike is likely, and that the east coast isn't out of the woods on threats. I'm not sure what to think about Imelda's threat to the coast--if not for Humberto going nuclear, I think this would've been the EC hurricane strike I predicted. For the east coast that definitely gets less likely in October though as the images I posted above show, that's really after the 10th. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (4) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda

Should've posted this yesterday but it actually makes more sense today as Imelda is on an intensification trend. Imelda adds to the list and should become a hurricane. Outside shot at a major. The peak season forecast is still up in the air, but with activity still expected on the models and in the areas I highlighted, I like where I sit. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (4) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda

The ragged eyewall does look like it collapsed per recon, but that's not really a surprise given IR last night. I do agree that the presentation has really improved and the pressure falls have been impressive.

We uninstalled weeks ago and haven't looked back.

Agree with this. I will say that some of the AI models earned a little more respect with me this season, but to your point--it's going to take time to truly get a sense of how well it analyzes critical forecasting factors over the long term. Every forecast is different and every TC is a distinct entity. And at any rate...models are merely tools. So us laypeople should beware relying on any one as gospel in any situation. (not saying that anyone here is necessarily doing that)

Also, this is an extraordinary satellite image. About as close as you can get. Both in coastal impacts and two TCs interacting with one another.

The wind field is still not particularly organized or strong, but the winds are gradually coming up as the satellite presentation continues to improve. The center is now under a developing CDO, with persistent deep convection we should see the pace of organization pick up over the course of the day. The pressure has continued to fall, with the latest center dropsonde showing a possible pressure below 990mb now. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 13:23ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: ImeldaStorm Number: 09 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 22Observation Number: 10Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 29th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 925mb Coordinates: 26.6N 77.2W Location: 108 statute miles (173 km) to the N (5°) from Nassau, Bahamas. Marsden Square: 080 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -93m (-305 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 990mb (29.24 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 25.5°C (78°F) 135° (from the SE) 20 knots (23 mph) 925mb 596m (1,955 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 23.2°C (74°F) 145° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph) 850mb 1,337m (4,386 ft) 21.6°C (70.9°F) 20.3°C (69°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 13:13Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

I think the risk is still there, especially as climo shifts to the Gulf/Western Caribbean.