WxWatcher007

The lack of snow already getting to the forum lol

Early on in met winter though I feel like we need to see that we can get on the board. It’s a restless life getting to Dec 20 with absolutely no shot at snow on the models.

Guys, seriously, relax. No need for the vitriol. People can simply agree to disagree and keep it moving.

Yeah, some really think the troughing on the 18z… **reads thread above** (don't attack me it’s all jokes )

I’m still pretty bullish on first flakes in much of SNE in the coming two weeks. I really do like seeing this first blast of deep cold rolling down into the eastern U.S. next week.

Low of 26.3° here at WXW1

That is truly horrifying.

That I do like to see.

How many times have we heard that in recent years…

First flakes in January more fitting with 2020s climo?

Thanks. WXW1 is East Hartford, CT WXW2 is Saranac Lake, NY

Good point lol Well I think we all agree—let’s get another HECS in the hoppah this winter.

This. Our non-elevation snow rates/accumulation are second to the LES belts, and I wouldn’t trade that for a 5-10” Midwest blizzard with 70mph winds, even though I love wind. But high end to me is the HECS territory. We had a great stretch last decade, but region wide historic has happened less than a handful of times?

Yeah and again…don’t want to make too much of it right now, but even that coastal in October was a pretty meh dual low mess. I get why people are cautiously optimistic about winter but the raging PAC jet interfering in the development of proper coastal and placement of important features is something to watch, I think. I’m being a little colorful, because we can do various types of high end wx, but the return time and regional scale vary.

I still think this’ll be a fine event as 45-55mph inland is still quite solid, but high end is high end for a reason and we don’t really do high end in anything in SNE to begin with. San Diego east.

We out. We’ll be windy, but nothing high end here. Also don’t want to read too much into it…but virtually every storm during this active period has been a cutter or coastal hugger…

Yeah, then we'd really be talking about Kevin's grid collapse.

As you note, @weatherwiz, this is a different setup than our usual modeled wind events that fail. I'm very impressed by the level of mixing that's showing up across guidance, and obviously, a NW flow event is a far more common way for us to get big wind across the interior than relying on southerly flow. I could absolutely see max gusts late tomorrow/early Thursday ranging in the 50-65mph range depending on location. The saving grace for damage is that we are past peak with a lot of leaf drop. 06z Euro 12z GFS

Like what I’m seeing on the models for tomorrow/Thursday am, though SLK may not have enough elevation.

Far more interested in this than I was for the Halloween breezes.

I don’t think we had any here but I wasn’t looking closely. Had an instantaneous rain rate of 6.13”/hr.

Groton taking the crown of coldest coastal spot in CT so far this fall.

38.5 at WXW1—41 at HFD 29.3 at WXW2—25 at SLK