WxWatcher007

While all of the areas of interest in the Atlantic have underperformed, thanks to @nwohweatherI can weenie out on this. This is actually from the Bahamas MCS that slowly drifted up the coast over the last few days.

That looks better than former PTC Two and 95L ever did lol

Great info, thanks for sharing! I remember that NYC event. People thought the aliens finally arrived lol.

Right on cue Tropical Storm Bonnie Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 915 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the disturbance has now become Tropical Storm Bonnie over the southwestern Caribbean Sea with maximum winds of 40 mph (65 km/h). SUMMARY OF 915 AM EDT...1315 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 80.5W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett

It looks like recon finally found a center

I hope this is preseason jitters for the models lol because the performance has not been great…especially the Euro with regard to PTC Two.

High end slop

All the areas of interest in the basin are pretty pathetic today.

Howdy! Good to see you posting. Recon en route.

Much like 95L, PTC Two remains a disorganized mess, with convection well away from the apparent center which has finally crossed the Guajira Peninsula. Judging by early visible imagery and surface observations however, it should finally be able to acquire a name today. From there we’ll see how quickly intensification happens.

Running out of time. 1. Western Gulf of Mexico: Recent satellite and radar imagery indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure near the southern coast of Texas are showing limited signs of organization. The disturbance is forecast to turn northward and move slowly inland over southeastern Texas later today. Slow development of this system is possible while the low remains over water and it could still become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next two days. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if it remains over water. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Yawn

An all-time event for the region. Just extraordinary.

Underperforming areas of interest across the Atlantic. 95L has a LLC but no organization. PTC Two has some organization but no LLC. Early season slop for all

Looks like we will have dual recon missions this afternoon. Recon en route to Invest 95L. There is much more convection so far today and it looks like the environment is moistening, but it's unclear if there's enough organization with shear still present.

Recon en route to investigate PTC 2. It looks like it has organized overnight, but may just be short of having a closed LLC. We'll see what recon finds.

Recon tentatively scheduled to investigate 95L tomorrow.

Northern Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move slowly westward or west-southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next two days. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it moves inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Yeah low ceiling stuff here.

Tropical Overview--6/28/22 It has been a quiet June, but as we turn the page from June to July, an unusually favorable environment has allowed for multiple areas of interest to pop up. Let's start with the Atlantic before turning closer to home. To be clear--this is still a time of year that is generally hostile to tropical genesis, especially out in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic and Caribbean. In fact, the eastern Caribbean is notoriously called "the graveyard" this time of year because of hostile wind shear. This time however, there are a couple of factors that have opened the Atlantic, briefly, for business. First and foremost, we see a dramatic drop in wind shear that has allowed for PTC Two and the second Atlantic area of interest to have a shot at development. In addition to this, we saw the passage of a CCKW, which enhanced convection across the basin and helped PTC Two as it exited the ITCZ. This kind of shear in the MDR and especially eastern Caribbean is unheard of for this time of year. As you can see, the high shear is displaced to the north, which has implications on the two Atlantic areas of interest. A sprawling ridge over the Atlantic will shunt PTC Two to the west and put it on a rare collision course with South America before making landfall in Central America. In fact, the forecast track is suppressed so far south it seems possible that this system could cross over relatively intact into the Pacific. Because PTC Two stays south, even with land interaction it is unlikely to encounter the kind of shear that would inhibit it from intensifying to near hurricane strength before landfall in Nicaragua. On the other hand, the wave behind PTC Two is likely to find a weakness that will propel it further northwest, into the shear buzzsaw zone. Although a wave axis may stay intact, the models forecast strong shear that is likely to keep the second wave from being a significant player. Still worth watching, but only with a casual eye. Not much analysis needed on that one at this time. As you can see from the wave propagation plot above, we're likely to go to a suppressed phase shortly, that will likely close the window for MDR development until we start ramping up toward the climatological peak of the season and CV season. Given the impressive expanse of the warmth thus far (though MDR SSTs remain meh) and ongoing La Nina conditions, I expect the basin to really go into high gear once we get to August, higher than what climo would suggest. In fact, looking at the TCHP chart compared to other years at this time, the warmth we see in the Gulf, Caribbean, and SW Atlantic is significant. Even if waves aren't ready for prime time in the MDR, conditions look generally favorable closer to the coast. But I'm getting ahead of myself... Closer to home, we have Invest 95L, which was designated this morning near the Texas coast. The guidance has forecasted some weak development, and given current SSTs and relatively low shear (though still there) development is possible. There is an apparent low level center that has developed, and some shallow convection. You can see a clear LLC, but it's unclear how durable that will be. If it is durable, it increases the odds of tropical cyclone genesis. However, there's shear that evident on this loop, as well as some dry air that may inhibit development. There's not much analysis to do here: this invest needs time, which is in short supply, but if we start seeing convection and pressure drops over the apparent center, the odds of development go up. Heavy rain is the biggest threat here. Overall, we see a few areas of interest as we close out June, which is unusual. This should be short lived, especially in the MDR region, as the basin continues to slowly come to a boil.

Stand by for a tropical update.

Poor Wiz. I know how he feels. We like what we like even if it doesn’t show up in our backyard lol. We don’t even do snow all that well around here these days. All we have left is “drought” and dew talk.

This morning a new invest was designated off the coast of Texas. Although it has 30% development odds currently, the guidance in recent days has picked up on some development that could allow this to become a tropical cyclone. 1. Northern Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure is centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has increased overnight but remains disorganized. Some additional development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward or west-southwestward and approaches the coast of Texas during the next two days. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. While there is some shear evident in the area, and the system doesn't have time to rapidly develop due to proximity to land, this morning there are hints that a low level center has developed, and we do see some shallow convection attempting to fire around the center. We will need to watch and see if this LLC is durable, and if so, whether shear will be enough to inhibit tropical genesis. I'd put the odds a little higher than the current 30%, with odds increasing as long as that LLC continues to see convection firing near the center. Pressure drops don't look too impressive at the moment. Regardless of whether a TC comes out of this, it is likely to be a heavy rain event for parts of the Texas coast, with the Euro particularly aggressive with rainfall over the next 3-4 days.