WxWatcher007

Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Although the center is well inland, Claudette has become better organized during the past several hours, with a large area of convection forming close to the center in the northern quadrant. In addition to this convection, a large area of rain bands is present over the eastern semicircle from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico northward into southeastern Tennessee Surface observation indicate that the maximum winds have decreased a little more and are now 25 kt, with these winds mainly over the Gulf of Mexico to the south of the center. Surface observations also indicate that the central pressure is 1005-1006 mb. The initial motion is still northeastward, but is a little slower than before, 050/12 kt. A turn to the east-northeast is expected during the next 6-12 h as Claudette moves in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the system across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next 36 h or so and then over the western Atlantic and toward Atlantic Canada with a significant increase in forward speed between 36- 72 h. The track forecast guidance remains tightly clustered and has changed little since the last advisory. So, the new forecast track is basically an update of the previous forecast, and it calls for the system to be near the coast of North Carolina at about the 36 h point. The intensity guidance continues to show a sizable amount of spread. On one side, the GFS has an ill-defined system reaching the Carolina coast in 36 h, with only minimal subsequent intensification after Claudette moves into the Atlantic. On the other side, the UKMET shows the central pressure falling below 1000 mb before the system reaches the Atlantic and winds exceeding 50 kt once the system is over water. The ECMWF and Canadian models lie between these extremes. The model forecasts do not show any strong baroclinic forcing that would lead to the level of intensification shown by the UKMET. On the other hand, the short-term trends in the cyclone's organization currently favor the stronger model forecasts. Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast is not changed much from the previous forecast, except for moving the time of dissipation up by 24 h as Claudette gets absorbed into a large extratropical low over eastern Canada. If the current trends continue, or later GFS runs forecast a stronger system, the intensity forecast could be adjusted upward in later advisories. It should be noted that even the weaker GFS solution brings 30-35 kt winds to the North Carolina coast near the 36 h point, and a tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of the current watch area on the next advisory. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, northern Alabama, and Georgia through tonight, and into the Carolinas on Sunday. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of this area early Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 32.6N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/1200Z 33.3N 84.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0000Z 34.2N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1200Z 35.4N 76.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0000Z 37.7N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 22/1200Z 40.8N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 44.5N 60.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Yeah—that one really surprised me when I saw the retired list. That had a wide ranging impact.

Top gusts per TWC New Orleans: 43 mph Mobile: 49 mph Gulfport: 59 mph Fort Morgan: 60 mph Pensacola: 81 mph

TS watches now up for the NC coast.

We do this all the time. Usually a low end TS doesn’t have the radar presentation of a Michael lol. They’re low end for a reason. This has a well defined center, is warm core, and producing observed TS conditions in multiple places. This kind of appearance fits climo for the Gulf in mid-June. It’s a tropical cyclone.

Pensacola reported a 51 mph wind gust.

It’s obviously lopsided, but Claudette looks decent this morning. We’ll see a pretty interesting evolution over the next few days, and Claudette will probably look better over land than it ever did in the Gulf before trying to redevelop into a tropical cyclone off the east coast. Should be an active couple days. Nice couplet west of Pensacola…

I don’t think the CAG will stick around, but it does look like there may be another Caribbean or Gulf window as another CCKW potentially passes through in early July.

Much respect to the Euro, as it caught onto the idea of a robust inland system while the other guidance played catch up, or in the case of the GFS, went to the sideline and threw up on itself What you’ll see the next few days is Claudette look better over land than it ever did in the Gulf as it organizes from a jet injection, before possible redevelopment into a tropical cyclone over the western Atlantic. Fascinating evolution, sucks it’s happening too far south for anything interesting here. Oh well.

As much as I love tropical, that’s not worth a chase.

Amen. Enjoy the time you have.

Don’t see anything that stands out to me on quick glance.

21 is a GREAT age. You bounce back from physical punishment like nothing. You begin the slow decline toward oblivion in your 30s

30

Up to 45mph at 2pm.

Eh, earlier in the week it looked better for us. Would need a northward shift to bring something more meaningful to SE NE.

Much better convection developing today as it approaches landfall—like the models suggested. Still lopsided, but better organized per recon.

Looks like we’re seeing a southward shift of the low once it’s inland. Could end up with nothing here.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little better organized today. This system is expected to move generally northward, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday. A tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon, and Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated on this system at 4 PM CDT (2100 UTC). An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Heavy rains will also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Pasch

We’re still six days out, but the idea of a decent post tropical low up in the region is gaining traction with me. EPS remains bullish (note it almost certainly wouldn’t be tropical at this latitude, but the ensembles are picking up on a relatively “strong” low possible)

This doesn’t look like a major tropical system, and we’ve been waiting basically two weeks for development, I think banter is fine lol.

Fair enough. Euro is the furthest left. GEFS keeps things away for the most part. I’m not ready to bite, but it’s something to watch.

EPS has been in lockstep. I’m a little more intrigued today.

That microwave image

I’d love to do that someday