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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
  2. WxWatcher007
    Winter 2013-14 may be my favorite winter, and I spent it in DC. Basically wall to wall winter from Jan 1 through March.
  3. WxWatcher007
    I went back to 2017 to plot OHC at this time in the basin.
  4. WxWatcher007
    This far away from any land impacts, it’s all in good fun to try to figure out which will develop. I don’t think I’d say 100% won’t develop, but I’m in the camp of it taking another wave or two before the tropical Atlantic opens up. I think the western Atlantic will have had a system or two develop by then.
  5. WxWatcher007
    There’s a guy out here mowing
  6. WxWatcher007
    Hard to buy right now when the tropical Atlantic remains dry and stable. It’ll change, but like I said the other day you may need some sacrificial waves first.
  7. WxWatcher007
    Skipped right over me too. Saw this coming from a mile away.
  8. WxWatcher007
    I’m just saying buyer beware. I love the weenie stuff too but there is such a thing as too much drugs.
  9. WxWatcher007
    That’s just weenie fodder. Even if the GFS consistently showed that, it’s so far away that you couldn’t consider it a serious signal absent multi-guidance ensemble support.
  10. WxWatcher007
    We’re getting there. Hyperactive looks off the table but solidly above average looks feasible as long as we can get some instability in the tropical MDR.
  11. WxWatcher007
    One of the benchmark floods
  12. WxWatcher007
    It’s still disorganized obviously, but that wave in the western Caribbean has held convection together nicely. The only things holding it back are land interaction and some shear to the north. We’ll see how it looks after the Yucatán, but this is as good a candidate as any for homebrew development. Wherever a center forms would be critical to TC genesis chances and eventual track.
  13. WxWatcher007
    Wet ground! .03”
  14. WxWatcher007
    Summer of bore continues.
  15. WxWatcher007
    Active look again today on the operational and ensemble guidance, and it’s not stuck at the end of the runs. Growing confidence the lid is primed to come off as early as this weekend starting with the BOC disturbance.
  16. WxWatcher007
    Ensembles continue to like TC genesis in the BOC in a few days.
  17. WxWatcher007
    The only way to do it lol
  18. WxWatcher007
    Well this is the first time my gauge will be operating in years now that I have a house. Station not online yet.
  19. WxWatcher007
    For this kind of forecast that’s all we can do. Zero expectations here, and I’m still leaning toward nothing meaningful outside of far eastern CT, but it’d be nice to watch a quasi-tropical system blossom tonight. Rain tomorrow imby would be a bonus.
  20. WxWatcher007
    well you know how it is. Sometimes they are a little late to the party, especially with stuff near the coast. Each year there’s like at least one that pops under the radar with the NHC. Colin was one about six weeks ago. Kinda think that October storm was name worthy much earlier too.
  21. WxWatcher007
    Oh yeah, totally agree. I’m just saying I don’t see the NHC chiming in right now.
  22. WxWatcher007
    I wouldn’t expect the NHC to comment on this one unless it’s making a run at being fully tropical or subtropical. Doesn’t mean it won’t have some characteristics though.
  23. WxWatcher007
    Yup. Just biding my time until I can hit the road.
  24. WxWatcher007
    Not really thinking there’s meaningful rain imby, but hopefully we see a nice storm blossom to break the mind numbing monotony.
  25. WxWatcher007
    Between the October faux hurricane, blizzard, and drought bullseye for the AEMATT crew, I’m prepared to draft a declaration of secession if they get the coastal too. We will not go quietly into the night as the damage capital of New England.
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