WxWatcher007

It’s insane. I saw a tweet saying the local NWS is warning about runoff because the freezing level will basically reach the top of mountains. Incredible to see how they can torch which makes me wonder what’s the hottest we could do here if the mid/upper level pattern lined up for epic heat. Maybe 107-108 at say BDL?

I'm wild and I know it.

It’s unreal to me that those places can torch like that. I’d personally love to experience heat like that someday, but that’s dangerous stuff.

My college football viewing has declined in recent years but NFL Football is still the best show on TV IMO, no disrespect to others’ preferences lol.

Now designated as 95L. Something that may be worth watching long term depending on where the center develops.

Yep, it’s an invest now. 95L

Orange 2. A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa later today. Although ocean temperatures are still relatively cool over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and are only marginally conducive for development, a small tropical depression could form by early next week while moving westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

CV wave getting a lemon now from the NHC. Some pretty robust waves so far this season.

Can’t do nice summer wx better than today.

Great point. It’d probably be enough north of the Gulf Stream for something subtropical SST wise but the airmass ahead is awfully dry. Maybe we can get a short term trend to something more robust. I’m bored lol.

None stick out to me. SSTs and the general landfall steering pattern favoring a TC rocketing north would almost always prevent a TC forming off the Carolinas from becoming a big system.

@jbenedet mentioned this a few days ago but it looks like the guidance is coming around a little low quickly developing in the next 24 hours off the NC coast before getting shunted north to muck up our Friday with clouds and maybe some rain. Too bad the waters are frigid otherwise we’d be talking (weak) tropical.

It looks like the tropics will continue to have somewhat favorable conditions into early July, with another CCKW possibility traversing the Atlantic. There’s a weak signal on ensemble guidance for activity in the southern Gulf, and a possible CV wave developing. The signal is a little more robust with the CV wave, but the problem is while climo starts to open up for those waves to develop in July, the MDR is still historically hostile then. Something to casually watch.

Unlike snow, tropical is serious bidness. No time for other projects.

Now that’s bad

Well don’t be in the left lane, but I’ve definitely put them on in low viz tropical rains or snow.

The cell north of Middlebury, VT and west of Lake George, NY look like they have some modest rotation. Lake George one looks like it could pop a hook.

pick ‘em up & take ‘em down

From the SPC ...Northeast States... Water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough digging across the Great Lakes region, with the associated cold front sweeping across southeast Ontario and OH. Mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s ahead of the front, coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates shown on 12z raobs and model forecast soundings will yield a moderately unstable air mass by early afternoon (MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg). It appears thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon along the front - and in the free warm sector to the east. Vertical shear will be sufficient for a mix of multicell and occasional supercell structures, capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low level shear is strongest over Quebec, but may be sufficient over parts of VT/NY for an isolated tornado or two as well. Activity will sweep eastward across the ENH risk area through the early evening, before weakening as it approaches cooler marine-influenced air mass over eastern New England and NJ.

Enhanced risk just added by the SPC for part of New England. Still waiting for the update to the SPC text.

There’s a little signal for some early July activity, so maybe we keep the active start going.

It was me. I was leaving the board and wanted my account deleted by an admin. Then like a glutton for punishment I came back. Had no idea it’d totally nuke all the threads. Don’t know why you can’t sever the op from a thread.

Maybe. I’m not terribly enthused but that region is going to produce two TCs (including a regenerated Claudette) and fits climo, so I guess we do watch.