WxWatcher007

52k top estimated on that cell west of CT. Very good CAPE out there for some bangers if those storms can keep pushing east.

Can’t say I’ve seen this before

12z Euro tries to clear the center from the coast by tomorrow morning and while it avoids Cuba, it brings it further east over Florida. I don’t buy the stronger HWRF solution. It has been rushing intensification from what I’ve seen with Fred so far, and it can certainly take a while for a robust center to regenerate, much less become vertically aligned. And this is expected to happen in the presence of shear? Possible, but unlikely. The 24 hours are critical to defining the ceiling of this system IMO, which I still think is relatively low.

11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 11 Location: 18.2°N 69.7°W Moving: WNW at 16 mph Min pressure: 1006 mb Max sustained: 45 mph

Let’s keep this thread focused on TS Fred, but yeah, 95L has a higher ceiling at this point. What happens with Fred could impact 95L in a few days. There’s a lot to sort out with TS Fred.

It's going to be a couple of ugly days for Fred due to land interaction and shear on the other side. Not much else to say until it at least passes DR/Haiti. Still looks like a favorable environment in the Gulf though. Edit: hours

3G? Were you carrying a flip phone?

FYI

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 1:25ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302 Potential Tropical Cyclone: Six (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 2Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 0:40:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.34N 66.30WB. Center Fix Location: 75 statute miles (121 km) to the SSW (192°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,504m (4,934ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 50° at 6kts (From the NE at 7mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 35kts (40.3mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the N (6°) of center fix at 0:31:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 115° at 40kts (From the ESE at 46.0mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix at 0:20:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 25kts (28.8mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the W (274°) of center fix at 0:43:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 43° at 31kts (From the NE at 35.7mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 77 nautical miles (89 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix at 1:01:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,532m (5,026ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and PressureS. Fix Level: 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 6.5 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) which was observed 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the NE (38°) from the flight level center at 0:19:00Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the N (352°) from the flight level center

Don’t want to get too far ahead of myself, but 95L has a high ceiling to me. The environment ahead looks good for development and this could be another long range US threat given the steering pattern.

A tradition unlike any other!

It’s having a hard time developing a closed circulation. This is effectively a very sharp wave at the moment. As soon as it closes off it’ll be a named system.

No upgrade at 5pm.

Invest 95L has been designated in the eastern Atlantic. Looks like August

This. Buyer beware. I think the ceiling is certainly higher than 24 hours ago, but land interaction is still a big wildcard IMO. It looks like unlike earlier model runs, the upper level environment in the Gulf is going to be more favorable for organization and/or intensification.

The recon earlier didn't find enough evidence of a closed center, so it wasn't designated. It looks pretty solid on visible satellite right now though. We're not far off from our next named system of the season.

Looks like recon found reliable 40kt surface winds. Close call on whether there’s enough of an LLC to name. Probably just enough IMO.

Definitely ill defined and broad, but I agree, probably worth a name.

Dude, I hadn't even looked until you said something. Looks like I won't be sleeping for a while

Reposting this here because it's a great find. Thank you! It's good to know my lack of sleep is actually creating something of value for people. Also, for folks reading, here's the 06z EPS. Remember it only goes out 6 days, but note that now we're starting to see stronger ensemble members show up. Far from a lock, but that's definitely something to watch.

Oh yeah, I appreciate the tweet thread. Always good to throw out ideas. Totally agree on the Gulf hit. I know some of you got fringed in Elsa, but that was impactful up here in my neck of the woods. That's part of the reason why I am discounting the GFS solution for inland impacts for now. Tallahassee to Detroit Express doesn't really fit climo

Recon en route now to see if this has actually become a tropical cyclone. Still looks like it's trying to get its act together, but certainly wouldn't be surprised if they found a closed circulation.

Interesting thread. I agree that it's possible for this to slide further west into the Gulf, but I don't think it's likely. The operational guidance (for those that are lurking, I mean the GFS, Euro, etc.) in general has been consistent and more important--has stayed within the range of track possibilities outlined by both the ensembles (GEFS, EPS). The huge caveat here though is we're tracking a Potential Tropical Cyclone. TC genesis has not officially occurred yet, though recon is en route right now to confirm. Once we have more data and a well-defined center, we can have greater confidence in eventual track. We've seen situations before where you get a center a little further north or south and it can make a difference in intensity which can make a difference in track. I think one thing for this region to watch, is the sharpness of the curve. I think there's a pretty high chance this ridge pushes this into the Gulf, but there's a split in what happens after that. Does this end up being a sharper recurve that brings remnants to the region or does the GFS have the right idea and the ridge actually pushes this almost due north and washes it out quickly. I think that's entirely up in the air at this point. GEFS EPS While we're at it, once again I want to note the signal on both ensembles for a follow up wave right after this one...

Surprised nobody posted the GFS. It might be a blip, but it really intensifies the system in the Gulf. Looks like a hurricane landfall in the Big Bend area verbatim. Looks like the potential shear vector is further west in the Gulf and that’s enough for this to quickly organize. Just one run, but interesting..