WxWatcher007

It’s pretty close. Let’s see if it can persist through the day. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Central Tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have persisted overnight and are showing signs of organization. Although upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for additional development, only a slight increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression. The system is forecast to move generally westward over the tropical Atlantic during the next day or so, and move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands Friday and Friday night. Regardless of development, the system is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands Friday through Saturday. Interests in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown

The steering pattern does look pretty ripe as long as there are no unmodeled shortwaves that erode the coming ridge.

Don’t really have much to add other than it looks pretty solid based on prior microwave imagery, a partial ASCAT pass, and current IR. Agree with Windspeed and some others that we need to see this survive long enough to reach a *potentially* favorable environment. I remain skeptical but if this can persist, and that’s been a challenge all season in the tropical Atlantic, it has a shot. I think this needs to be a coherent enough disturbance to survive potential interaction with the Greater Antilles. The size may help in that regard. Good to see deep convection and hints of curved banding.

I’m still skeptical about 96L too. Let’s see how those aggressive euro forecasts verify in three days. The guidance has been awful even at short range.

San Diego had tropical this month.

We now have Invest 96L. All you for the thread @GaWx. Also I hate to admit it, but I’m not on board yet with this one.

I still need to see it make progress the next few days. There’s a nice moisture envelope but there’s a lot of dry air ahead and potential land interaction if it can’t get poleward a little.

18z was the most aggressive yet fwiw

I’m lukewarm on that wave, but it has been more convectively active today.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=atl&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2022091212&fh=12

The thing with Wentz IMO are the leadership issues (which we haven't necessarily seen yet in Washington) and the fact that he does not take care of the football. He's talented, sure. He'll make plays, absolutely. But turnovers are killer and if you do that kind of thing against better teams you lose by 20. Go all in on a high end QB. There are good skill players on that offense.

I’m so happy football is back

Still baffled that Washington signed him. Actually, no I’m not.

Definitely possible.

Blunt trauma is a good way to put it. lol

Earl let me down in not becoming a major, and it looks like the ones above will go 0/3. Just a struggle to get anything really going this year.

Earl flopping hurts but I still think my forecast will be fine at the end of the day. Homebrew region needs to produce.

Haha I just posted this in the Kay thread.

Another underperformer

Basin sucks. That is all.

It’s a chilly start here. Low of 51.5.

While it’s a known bias for the Euro to overdevelop AEWs, it’s actually incredible to see the operational and ensembles consistently spin up what are effectively fantasy storms in the MDR. The only one it’s done a reasonably good job with is Earl, and even then the operational was too aggressive. We don’t even need to go into the seasonal forecast, which is objectively an all-time fail. The GFS hasn’t been much better, with a truly awful consistently wrong forecast in the western Caribbean (another known bias) and overdevelopment at times too. Part of it is the tropical Atlantic being overwhelmingly hostile, but even short term forecasts have been way off, Earl and Danielle being two examples.