WxWatcher007

Yeah, I think a track that west is possible, but I think it's unlikely. Elsa is still going to feel the influence of the trough and seek the weakness along the ridge. I think land interaction is almost a lock, but it matters a lot how that happens. If it pinballs between the mountainous land masses of the Greater Antilles it'll be a shell of itself as it emerges into the Gulf. If it is able to avoid land until western Cuba it could be much stronger.

Best look yet I've seen on radar. Still an asymmetrical wind field to say the least, but it looks good on radar and IR and I don't see anything to really slow it down at the moment other than its own forward speed. Probably makes land interaction potential even more important to the eventual outcome early next week.

Extrapolated pressure down to 989.9 on the latest pass. Would love to see a center sonde. Edit: NHC going with 85 mph and 991 mb at 2pm.

Don't necessarily think this is representative of the current hurricane intensity, but it's interesting. Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 16:57ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 2Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 2nd day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 13.6N 61.8W Location: 49 statute miles (79 km) to the NW (308°) from Kingstown, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Marsden Square: 043 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -30m (-98 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 997mb (29.44 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 25.3°C (78°F) 65° (from the ENE) 77 knots (89 mph) 925mb 655m (2,149 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 21.6°C (71°F) 90° (from the E) 100 knots (115 mph) 850mb 1,390m (4,560 ft) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 19.2°C (67°F) 115° (from the ESE) 77 knots (89 mph) 700mb 3,049m (10,003 ft) 12.4°C (54.3°F) 11.2°C (52°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 16:33Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 13.61N 61.79W - Time: 16:34:08Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 13.65N 61.89W - Time: 16:39:25Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 80° (from the E) - Wind Speed: 97 knots (112 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 110° (from the ESE) - Wind Speed: 76 knots (87 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 705mb to 995mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 161 gpm - 11 gpm (528 geo. feet - 36 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 75° (from the ENE) - Wind Speed: 92 knots (106 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30406

There's the hurricane. Recon finally got a good pass. 991.6 mb extrapolated Unflagged 69, 70, 71kt SFMR

It's hard to ignore how big a departure that is from prior runs, but all these operational runs aren't worth much to me yet without additional recon data. I think ensembles still lead the way here in developing a sense of the envelope of possibilities. I'd probably perk up a touch if the HWRF backed way off since it is the best intensity guidance by far, but even then, there's a lot of information still to be gathered by recon regarding Elsa's organization. Edit: Latest recon mission is beginning.

I hear ya, and I think that's true generally, but the obs down in the islands so far have been impressive with sustained hurricane force winds in Barbados and a gust to 86 mph. It's a small core so most miss that, but this one seems to be the real deal with ground truth. There's also that old rule of thumb I've heard before that it's sometimes worse to be hit by an intensifying TS than a weakening hurricane.

Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Elsa has become better organized, and radar data from Barbados and Martinique have shown attempts at eye formation. The formative northern eyewall passed over Barbados near 11-12Z, and hurricane-force winds were reported there at that time. The initial intensity is set at 65 kt based on those data. It should be noted that reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that the circulation is not well-developed at 700 mb, possible due to the rapid forward speed. The initial motion is 290/25. There is little change to the forecast track or the forecast guidance since the last advisory. The guidance is in good agreement on a rapid west-northwestward notion to near the south coast of the Dominican Republic by 36 hr. After that, the general consensus is that Elsa should turn northward by 96 h through a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-latitude trough. However, the guidance is quite divergent around this consensus, with possible tracks ranging from a west-northwestward motion through the Yucatan Channel or western Cuba to a northward motion through the Bahamas. Thus, the latter portion of the track forecast remains low confidence. The intensity forecast calls for a little more strengthening during the next 36 h as Elsa moves through an environment of light westerly shear. After that, land interaction, along with less favorable upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico, is likely to cause weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast shows major adjustments from the previous forecasts based primarily on the initial intensity. It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in other portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in Haiti on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and in Jamaica. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba this weekend and early next week, with impacts also possible in the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 13.4N 61.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.6N 64.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 16.3N 69.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.8N 73.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 20.7N 78.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1200Z 30.6N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

It’s moving at a record pace for that part of the basin at that intensity. Practically supersonic.

No track edits came with the special advisory. I actually think they should wait until guidance has some data from recon. What they have now is well within the envelope of possibilities.

Could be. Not questioning the skill or experience of the recon team, but maybe rapid motion might be making it more difficult to pin down things? Yeah, definitely high. Really hope they get a north-->south pass.

Yeah, very interesting. Part of it might be the trades/motion screwing with things, but it's quite odd to see given the IR/radar/microwave/ground obs. I'll wait for recon to finish before making any judgments though. This is why we send the planes in.

Yeah, 998mb extrapolated on that latest ob lol

They might have jumped the gun on that center? Latest obs show another area with lower pressure, unless it really is moving that fast lol.

Here's the first vortex message (VDM). I really want to see what happens when they sample the northern part of the core, which on radar looks to be a partial eyewall. So critical to have recon to resolve stuff like this. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 13:15ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number & Year: 05 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 12:56:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 12.98N 60.31WB. Center Fix Location: 49 statute miles (79 km) to the W (259°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,112m (10,210ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 255° at 3kts (From the WSW at 3mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 51kts (58.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the E (82°) of center fix at 12:44:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 62kts (From the ESE at 71.3mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 106 nautical miles (122 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 12:23:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 28kts (32.2mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WSW (245°) of center fix at 13:00:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 33° at 18kts (From the NNE at 20.7mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the W (265°) of center fix at 12:58:30ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,066m (10,059ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 1°C (34°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) which was observed 106 nautical miles (122 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) from the flight level center at 12:23:00Z

Interesting...basically 10mb higher than the estimate, and higher than the observed pressure in Barbados. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 13:10ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 2nd day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb Coordinates: 13.0N 60.3W Location: 48 statute miles (77 km) to the W (261°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. Marsden Square: 043 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1004mb (29.65 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 23.2°C (74°F) 255° (from the WSW) 3 knots (3 mph) 1000mb 37m (121 ft) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 23.1°C (74°F) 255° (from the WSW) 4 knots (5 mph) 925mb 723m (2,372 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 20.2°C (68°F) 165° (from the SSE) 8 knots (9 mph) 850mb 1,456m (4,777 ft) 18.2°C (64.8°F) 17.4°C (63°F) 195° (from the SSW) 10 knots (12 mph) 700mb 3,106m (10,190 ft) 11.8°C (53.2°F) 7.6°C (46°F) 45° (from the NE) 3 knots (3 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 12:56Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 12.99N 60.32W - Time: 13:01:14Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW) - Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW) - Wind Speed: 7 knots (8 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 1003mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 255° (from the WSW) - Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404

First sounding away from the center is fairly impressive. Recon en route to center which looks increasingly well-defined on radar. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 12:38ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 12Z on the 2nd day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb Coordinates: 14.0N 58.7W Location: 86 statute miles (139 km) to the NE (45°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. Marsden Square: 042 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1014mb (29.95 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.6°C (81.7°F) 24.0°C (75°F) 105° (from the ESE) 25 knots (29 mph) 1000mb 125m (410 ft) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 22.9°C (73°F) 110° (from the ESE) 32 knots (37 mph) 925mb 809m (2,654 ft) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 19.8°C (68°F) 120° (from the ESE) 46 knots (53 mph) 850mb 1,538m (5,046 ft) 16.8°C (62.2°F) 14.8°C (59°F) 125° (from the SE) 64 knots (74 mph) 700mb 3,171m (10,404 ft) 7.8°C (46.0°F) 6.9°C (44°F) 125° (from the SE) 66 knots (76 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 12:21Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 14.03N 58.79W - Time: 12:26:41Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 110° (from the ESE) - Wind Speed: 34 knots (39 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 120° (from the ESE) - Wind Speed: 56 knots (64 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 693mb to 1013mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 105° (from the ESE) - Wind Speed: 29 knots (33 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404

Hurricane Elsa Special Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa has become a hurricane, and this special advisory is being issued to update the first 36 h of the intensity and wind radii forecasts. More revisions of the intensity forecast are likely on the next regular advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently entering the hurricane, and a NOAA aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. There are no changes to the forecast track at this time. It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados and are expected elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning in other portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible over southern portions of Hispaniola on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1230Z 13.1N 60.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Probably will change, but the possibility is legit IMO. Stronger systems have had further west tracks on the ensembles and so far at least...this is verifying stronger.

Recon is descending into the hurricane now. Radar kind of shows it but the key thing here is how well-formed the inner core is, and secondarily IMO, how strong it actually is IMO. The more organized...the higher intensity ceiling...the higher intensity ceiling, the greater potential for a further west track...

Core hasn’t fully closed off, but clearly Elsa is not suffering terribly from the extreme forward motion. The environment later today and tonight might be even more favorable as all the guidance had some intensification/organization after the Antilles. It should be noted that SHIPS did highlight a higher than normal probability of rapid intensification and the GFS/HWRF’s bullish forecasts from 24-48 hours ago look to be much closer to reality than the other guidance. Doesn’t mean it’ll be right in future forecast points but it’s worth noting.

Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 745 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...ELSA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE... Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph, and the cyclone is now a hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the hour in place of the normal intermediate advisory. The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued Hurricane Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Lucia. The Meteorological Service of Barbados reported a sustained wind of 74 mph and a gust to 86 mph. SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 59.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF BARBADOS ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven/Latto/Zelinsky

Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 745 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...ELSA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE... Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph, and the cyclone is now a hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the hour in place of the normal intermediate advisory. The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued Hurricane Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Lucia. The Meteorological Service of Barbados reported a sustained wind of 74 mph and a gust to 86 mph. SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 59.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF BARBADOS ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven/Latto/ZelinskyHello

Elsa has become the first hurricane of the 2021 season.