WxWatcher007

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Surface synoptic data indicate that the center of Elsa has moved into extreme southern Georgia and, assuming continued weakening since earlier today, the maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt. This may be a generous estimate of the current intensity since no surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been recently received. Elsa should weaken into a tropical depression on Thursday. By early Friday, the dynamical models show some restrengthening of the cyclone as it moves along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. However, the simulated satellite imagery from the global models at that time depict the system resembling a frontal cyclone, so it is dubious as to whether Elsa will be completely tropical in 48 hours. Due to the uncertainty as to when extratropical transition will occur, tropical storm watches have been issued for Long Island and portions of southern New England at this time. The initial motion is northward, or 010/12 kt. Elsa is forecast to turn north-northeastward overnight as it moves around the northwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge while accelerating northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern United States and Canada on Thursday. The official forecast is about the same as the previous one and closely follows the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. Heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result inconsiderable flash and urban flooding across southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England states by Thursday night or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 30.8N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/0600Z 32.8N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1800Z 35.6N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1800Z 42.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/0600Z 46.0N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z 50.0N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Wild ride out of Florida. Currently in Lake City with measured winds near TS force.

I’d expect TS watches to go up for other coastal areas north of VA Beach sometime today. URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 544 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 ANZ632>634-638-652-654-656-658-071745- /O.NEW.KAKQ.TR.A.1005.210707T0944Z-000000T0000Z/ Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA- Currituck Sound- Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel- James River from James River Bridge to Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- Coastal waters from Chincoteague to Parramore Island VA out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Parramore Island to Cape Charles Light VA out 20 nm-Coastal Waters from Cape Charles Light to Virginia- North Carolina border out to 20 nm- Coastal waters from NC VA border to Currituck Beach Light NC out 20 nm- 544 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT... * WHAT...For the Atlantic waters and the Currituck Sound, south to southeast winds winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, becoming southwest. For the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River, south to southeast winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, becoming southwest. Waves 2 to 4 feet in the James River, 2 to 3 feet in the Currituck Sound, 3 to 6 feet in the lower Bay, and 6 to 9 feet in the Atlantic Ocean. * WHERE...The Atlantic coastal waters from Chincoteague to Currituck Beach Light NC, the Chesapeake Bay from New Pt Comfort to Cape Henry, the James River from the James River Bridge to the Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel, the Currituck Sound. * WHEN...Thursday through Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

Clearwater Beach reported a gust to 56mph about 30 minutes ago.

Windy but dry here in the sucker hole

Well in all seriousness, while I think we all agree it's not a hurricane, as @NorthHillsWx said this system has a pattern of pulsing up and down. I mean just in the last hour we see more prominent banding features on the east side of the circulation, and the first pass by recon tonight showed 70+ kt FL winds. I can see how Elsa has a burst that brings in some bigger wind to some coastal spot. NHC is all about continuity so this isn't terribly surprising.

It collapsed when it finally became vertically stacked I love tropical.

WS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 After an earlier flurry of convective bursting and even the development of a eye in radar imagery, Elsa appears to have leveled off over the past couple of hours. Between 2100 UTC and 0000 UTC, WSR-88D radars from Tampa and Key West indicated areas of average Doppler velocities of 75-85 kt between 8000-13,000 ft, which were co-located with convective bands consisting of 50 dBZ and higher reflectivity values, which equates to at least 65 kt surface winds. Elsa's center also passed just barely to the east of Buoy 41023 around 2100 UTC, producing a sustained wind of 49 kt at 3-meters elevation, which equals a 10-meter wind speed of 55 kt on the west side of the cyclone. The strongest 850-mb flight-level wind measured by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft so far has been 74 kt. However, radar data indicate that the aircraft just missed the strongest winds in the convection by only about 5 n mi. The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops around the ragged eye feature later tonight. Elsa is moving northward, or 360/12 kt. This motion should continue tonight and early Wednesday until landfall occurs across the northwestern Florida peninsula. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected by late Wednesday, followed by some acceleration toward the northeast on Thursday as Elsa rounds the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge and gets caught up by the southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-level trough. The official track forecast lies between the simple and corrected-consensus tracks models and the previous NHC track forecast. Elsa's inner-core convection looks pretty ragged right now, but the vertical structure has improved based on the reconnaissance data, which indicate that the low-, middle- and upper-level circulations are nearly vertically stacked now. Elsa's ragged eye feature along with the very warm water beneath the cyclone and the upcoming nocturnal convective maximum period could combine to allow convection to redevelop. However, proximity to dry mid-level air just to the west should prevent any significant strengthening from occurring. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to increased frictional effects and Elsa's small size. The pressure gradient, however, is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to increase between Elsa and a sprawling surface high pressure system over the western Atlantic, which should act to increase the winds to tropical storm force near the coastal areas from Georgia to North Carolina on Wednesday and Thursday. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus intensity models HCCA and IVCN. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions southwest Florida and will continue to spread northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area through Wednesday morning. 4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple of days, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 27.3N 83.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 29.0N 83.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 31.4N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1200Z 33.9N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0000Z 36.4N 77.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1200Z 39.3N 73.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/0000Z 42.8N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 11/0000Z 51.0N 54.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Slop

75mph/995mb at 11

Sometimes you hit a grand slam and sometimes it's a pop fly

Yeah, it's pretty crazy how quickly it came apart in terms of radar appearance. Totally fitting for Elsa though. It has struggled to maintain any organizational progress its entire life cycle. Edit: pressure went up 5mb from the first recon center fix.

This might be a wobble too, but recon has a NNE motion between center fixes.

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 1:14ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 14Observation Number: 12 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 1Z on the 7th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 27.0N 83.3W Location: 84 statute miles (136 km) to the SW (217°) from Tampa, FL, USA. Marsden Square: 081 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1003mb (29.62 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 23.8°C (75°F) 115° (from the ESE) 43 knots (49 mph) 1000mb 25m (82 ft) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 23.7°C (75°F) 120° (from the ESE) 42 knots (48 mph) 925mb 710m (2,329 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 20.4°C (69°F) 135° (from the SE) 38 knots (44 mph) 850mb 1,451m (4,760 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) About 15°C (59°F) 120° (from the ESE) 26 knots (30 mph) 700mb 3,109m (10,200 ft) Other data not available. Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 0:53Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 27.03N 83.29W - Time: 0:53:41Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 27.06N 83.32W - Time: 0:58:39Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE) - Wind Speed: 45 knots (52 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 135° (from the SE) - Wind Speed: 27 knots (31 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 1002mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 125° (from the SE) - Wind Speed: 45 knots (52 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404

That said, it doesn't matter a ton with regard to conditions along much of the west coast of FL. This half eyewall is going to scrape a good part of the metro Tampa area unless there's a bigger move to the west in the next few hours. The southwesterly flow on the backside of the hurricane is still going to cause surge issues as well.

Probably a wobble. These things don't really go in a straight line. I've learned that lesson firsthand lol.

Thank you everyone for the birthday wishes! It may not be a 5, but I do have a cane coming my way.

Flight level winds by recon remain quite high to the NE of the center, with a few readings over 70kts, but I don't quite see it translate to SFMR. That could be due to proximity to land though.

Happy birthday @Prospero! Wish you many more! I arrived in Clearwater a few hours ago. Best of luck tonight to everyone in the Tampa area.

This is WxWatcher007 reporting live for the first time in the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season from Clearwater, FL, where we have a Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning. Conditions have been relatively dry, but there have been some fairly strong breezes which have been increasing as Elsa approaches. A number of people have been out and about during the calm, but every person I've met so far is aware of the coming storm. Expecting a busy overnight period.

Elsa has regained hurricane status. 75mph/996mb.

Congrats to everyone that cashed in lol

It was always on the table, just a low shot deal.

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 Radar data from Cuba and Key West, Florida, along with surface observations, indicate that the center of Elsa is back over water, having emerged off the northern coast of of Cuba around 0200 UTC. Doppler velocity data from the NOAA WSR-88D at Key West indicate values of around 55 t at 10,000 ft, which supports equivalent surface winds of 49 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft flying just offshore the north coast of Cuba over deep water measured reliable SFMR surface winds of at least 50 kt. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 50 kt. The initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Just like over the past three days, no significant changes have been made to the previous track forecast or synoptic reasoning. Elsa is now moving north-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge whose axis extends westward across the Atlantic to central Florida. The cyclone should gradually move around the ridge over the next 36 hours, turning northward on Tuesday and then north-northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. By late Wednesday, Elsa should accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough and frontal system, moving across the eastern United States to near Atlantic Canada. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, but was nudged slightly eastward due to the more eastward initial position, and lies a tad east of of the various tightly clustered track consensus models. Some additional strengthening is expected over the next 36 hours, with some of the SHIPS and global models showing Elsa possibly reaching 60 kt just before landfall along the northwestern Florida peninsula. This would typically require a Hurricane Watch for a small portion of northwest Florida. However, given that Elsa has been hugging a very tight mid-level moisture gradient -- a condition that is expected to continue until landfall occurs in about 36 hours -- the new official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and holds the peak intensity at 55 kt due to expected intermittent dry-air intrusions. Subsequent NHC forecasts can assess the new reconnaissance and model data that will be coming in later tonight, and determine if an increase in the intensity forecast and the issuance of a hurricane watch or warning is required. By 96 hours, the global models suggest that the cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so the new intensity forecast continues to shows extratropical transition at that time. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and southeast Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida west coast through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 23.5N 82.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 24.9N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 26.9N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 29.2N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 31.6N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 08/1200Z 34.0N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/0000Z 36.9N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/0000Z 43.3N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0000Z 50.5N 52.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart

Yep, and the question will be will the two align enough overnight to allow for some modest intensification. I think the answer is no given the projected shear, but sometimes it’s helpful to shed a weak LLC over land to allow for some reformation near a more robust MLC.