WxWatcher007

Seeing flash flood reports from Fairfield County. Probably need a warning up there.

Good luck to everyone up there today. Hope you get smoked.

Glad everyone is ok

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1113 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southeastern St. Marys County in southern Maryland... * Until 215 AM EDT. * At 1113 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area within 1 hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Lexington Park... Piney Point... Tall Timbers... Saint Marys City... Saint Marys River... Saint Inigoes Creek... Saint George Island... Saint Inigoes... Park Hall... Drayden... Dameron...

Predecessor Rain Event In simple terms these are significant rain events to the north or northwest of a tropical system—one that’s usually recurving. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1031 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern St. Marys County in southern Maryland... * Until 1100 PM EDT. * At 1031 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Saint Inigoes Creek, moving northwest at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Saint George Island around 1035 PM EDT. Saint Marys River and Saint Marys City around 1040 PM EDT. Lexington Park, Piney Point and Tall Timbers around 1045 PM EDT. White Point Beach around 1055 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Point Lookout, Dameron, Great Mills, Redgate, Valley Lee, Drayden, Scotland, Saint Inigoes, Park Hall and Callaway.

Tornado warning south of VA Beach.

Don’t mind me I’m just throwing buns in the water for the weenies. Do tweets not show up on the site anymore?

Maximum sustained winds up to 50 at 5pm

or it could be like most Hollywood movies and have a horribly boring and annoying end?

Tropical

https://twitter.com/nwscpc/status/1413180073763508225?s=21

Totally agree with the idea that the setup is favorable out there.

Would love to get a Cape cane chase in someday. Big wind blizzard would be good too but those are tough to come by it seems

Elsa is produced TS conditions along the coast in every state so far, so I don't see a reason why it wouldn't in the Mid-Atlantic. Rainfall is always tricky with these when you're on the edge of a tropical system, but the coastal sections should cash in. HWRF is the best case scenario for those inland that want rain.

DON'T ENCOURAGE HIM

Don't disagree with any of that. Been a while since we've gotten a cane up here. An active peak gives us the best odds and I think the peak will be active again this year. If Elsa hits right we could see some flooding issues in CT due to the wet period we've seen, but other than that I'm not expecting anything particularly noteworthy here.

Ray is big dog or bust. You know this lol. Tropical quiets down after this but there's a robust signal for a big peak starting in August IMO. Steering pattern TBD.

Not sure how it’ll verify in this region but it did an excellent job for the most part further south. Remember the euro and ensembles tried shredding it in the western Atlantic and was totally wrong. Euro did pick up on the strengthening off Florida first but was too aggressive there too.

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Elsa is maintaining its intensity. However, these winds aren't close to the center but, rather, in a strong band of convection in the eastern semicircle of the storm. The current wind speed is set to 40 kt in accordance with an earlier sustained wind report of 38 kt, and radar velocities reduced to the surface that would support at least 40 kt. Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of Elsa's circulation remains over land. However by late Thursday, more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number of the models suggest re-intensification could take place. It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however, are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough interaction or warm waters. I'm getting some deja vu in this case after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same models also over-intensifying that storm. The GFS has been relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that model's relatively weaker solution. The storm has turned north-northeastward tonight and is moving a little faster, about 14 kt. Elsa should move northeastward at an increasing forward speed during the next few days as it becomes embedded within fast southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast since guidance remains in good agreement. Elsa is likely to become absorbed north of Newfoundland by another extratropical low by day 4. There is greater confidence tonight that some portion of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic coast will receive tropical-storm force-winds, so the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in those areas. Areas to the north remain less certain, and remain under a Tropical Storm Watch. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across southeastern Georgia into the Lowcountry of South Carolina tonight, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall, from North Carolina across the mid-Atlantic and into New England Thursday and Friday, could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina on Thursday and the mid-Atlantic by Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the southern New England states and New York by Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 32.1N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/1200Z 34.1N 80.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 37.1N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1200Z 40.4N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z 54.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Great to see so much early activity in the thread Looks like a modest quick hitter. I’ve spent most of the day bisecting Elsa in FL and GA. Crazy driving and strong winds in the bands inland.