WxWatcher007

This increasingly looks like a high impact event along the track across the peninsula. Some of the rainfall totals in north central and NE FL are significant and the NHC track suggests significant winds will be a possibility inland too.

Nope. It’d be a ripe candidate but the TC force field is strong this fall in our neck of the woods.

@40/70 Benchmark we’ve seen a lot of close calls and false alarms over the years, and this one is still far from settled…but this looks as close to “the one” for Tampa as I’ve seen since Charley. Look at the TC report from Josephine in the 90s. Nine feet of surge north of Tampa and 4-6’ near the Bay.

Absolutely.

Much tighter landfall envelope and the intensity trend has been particularly noteworthy.

To the upwelling question—there’s still plenty of warm water at along the path. Just as important, there’s depth to support a significant hurricane. Milton is likely to cross the Loop Current. A further south track could take it across that cooler spot, but that seems unlikely at this time. Just want to note for those lurking without much experience tracking tropical—those are 850mb winds, and would almost certainly not reach the surface, though those kind of winds aloft suggest significant (but again weaker) winds are possible at the surface.

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (8) Hurricanes: 10 (5) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton

Yes—there’s some data out there that shows that early August has gotten quieter over the years, while the back half of the peak, say September 20-October 20 has become more active. We’ve had several backloaded seasons in recent years and I think if the MDR stability trend continues we will see more of such seasons as the MDR will remain hostile until stability has had time to fade.

Those globals being close to agreement on track and intensity give cause for pause, particularly since the GFS was the least robust of the guidance not that long ago. It’s important for folks here to remember that this is going to be a multi-hazard event. Not only are wind and surge becoming increasingly significant hazards, the rainfall continues to look like a major issue for some part of the peninsula.

Quite a bit stronger but it did have last second weakening. At that point though the surge is already set.

I didn’t want to assume haha

My peak season forecast isn’t looking as awful as it once did.

It’s likely to be something. Landfall zone is the issue. The problem is if you’re looking to chase you can’t hold yourself to one location. If you just want impacts sure but if you are trying to get into the core you honestly won’t know if that’s going to happen until a few hours before landfall even in the best of cases.

It has been a dramatic uptick, made all the more incredible because the first half of the peak had zero activity.

Also, this would’ve been primed to ride the coast…if we weren’t San Diego.

I imagine he means the shape is favorable to “misses” relative to climatological tracks much like coastal GA is and the Outer Banks are, but who knows lol. Agree with your point though.

It’d be prudent to give the models (especially the hurricane intensity ones like the HAFS) more time, but the signal here for something significant is strong. FL should be preparing as such and perhaps into coastal GA/SC if the forecast holds.

Really wishing all of you the best of luck there.

Milton will likely be on the board soon, and it may be a major problem for Florida.

I hate to say it because of all the suffering happening in Florida, but I had a feeling of foreboding once I saw that EPAC seedling enter the BoC. That kind of vorticity entering that region is often a signal for development, and we’re seeing it play out this morning. To be clear, this is still a delicate setup with shear and dry air potentially lurking, but I think much like all the other Gulf hurricanes this year if future Milton is able to develop an inner core and anything close to the outflow channel suggested, it will not weaken on final approach, especially if it ends up further south in a warmer SST environment. Folks in FL need to activate their hurricane plans. I think the ceiling for this is substantially higher (doesn’t mean we’ll reach it) than it was last night.

Stellar is right. It looks like we probably get 2 (Gulf/MDR) or maybe 3 (another western Caribbean CAG type system) more NS before things shut down again mid-month, and then I think we may get a last burst in November when climo is squarely focused in the western Caribbean and the MJO cycles around again.

I think this qualifies as the lid coming off. Four hurricanes and two majors in less than 10 days. All of our peak activity has come since September 8.

Well I’ll say the lid came off. All of this activity came from September 8 on which is crazy. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (7) Hurricanes: 10 (5) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H)

18z EPS

With a 70% chance of development overall and potential impacts beginning in Florida as soon as this weekend, it's time for a dedicated thread to our latest disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. 1. Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or subtropical depression or storm is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves eastward or northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. What was a historically quiet start of the peak in late August through Mid September came to an abrupt end, with the lid coming off the basin and the most NS on record developing in late September into early October. Our latest system in the Gulf somewhat mirrors what we saw with Francine--we have a boundary settling into the Gulf while an area of vorticity related to what was an EPAC system crossed into the Bay of Campeche. This is a sensitive setup, as the presence of a frontal boundary, shear, dry air, and a tropical seed provide interesting ingredients for a tropical or subtropical system, or even a non-tropical low, though that looks increasingly unlikely. In fact, the general idea recently from guidance has been for the tropical seed to stay just far enough away from getting entangled in the boundary and blasted by shear to become a modestly strong tropical cyclone. That said, there's a lot that needs to be determined. One thing that is clear however is that the presence of a boundary/trough and tropical seed opens the door to 1) a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) across part of the FL peninsula as soon as this weekend and 2) a follow up heavy rain event for parts of Florida with the system itself. I think this one has a modest ceiling, aided significantly by the EPAC seed. If we do get a more significant system--closer to that ceiling, wind and especially surge become more significant issues.