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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    Yeah I’m definitely starting to wake up now. Neither wave is guaranteed to develop but if the lead wave in the central Atlantic can avoid land it could have a window for some development in the western Atlantic. I know 92L is the focus right now but I wouldn’t take my eye off either as something to casually watch.
  2. WxWatcher007
    CSU updated outlook was released and no surprise an above average peak us expected despite CSU dropping overall numbers a touch. Both SSTs and shear so far this year track in between our above average and hyperactive years.
  3. WxWatcher007
    Is 92L the ONE?
  4. WxWatcher007
  5. WxWatcher007
    No surprise but that wave coming off Africa is now designated Invest 92L.
  6. WxWatcher007
    Yeah, sorry guys. I’m retired.
  7. WxWatcher007
    Yeah watch the western MDR in particular. We should get a couple of waves that’ll have a chance with the more favorable MJO phase.
  8. WxWatcher007
    You came all this way and didn’t visit me? RUDE. I know I tried burying you alive a few years back, but I thought we were past that.
  9. WxWatcher007
    Great stuff. I’m still riding above normal but short of hyperactive. I don’t really take much of a position right now on the predominant steering pattern in September/October but the pattern certainly looks ripe for August. We’ll see if that second wave is able to develop.
  10. WxWatcher007
    Not enough hype. Cat 3 or bust.
  11. WxWatcher007
    Don’t even have to say it. That’s already a lock. Congrats PF
  12. WxWatcher007
    Yeah—it’s like a 2 on my interest scale. If we had development and a little more time further south, it’d be a different story. At any rate, looks like a nice potential rainmaker with some breezy conditions on the coast.
  13. WxWatcher007
    I haven’t really started looking until now but my quick thought is yes if it can get genesis going off the SC coast and over the Gulf Stream before lifting NE. In the whole scheme of things though it doesn’t look particularly impressive IMO. It doesn’t look fully baroclinic to me on the GFS but maybe I’m wrong @CoastalWx @weatherwiz?
  14. WxWatcher007
    August is here, which means we’re just a few weeks away from the start of the climatological peak. A lot of talk around the MJO happens, and as we look at a potentially favorable window near mid-month, it might be helpful to have a primer on MJO.
  15. WxWatcher007
    I've been making a point to sleep (though work has been getting in the way) because I know it's impossible for me to get more than a few hours when a threat is on the table. Hopefully I can get in at least one more chase this season. There's a good signal for late August to be active, which doesn't always happen. I'm expecting the peak to be well above average but just shy of hyperactive. IMO the SST profile in the MDR is the reason why. That said, the basin is heating up.
  16. WxWatcher007
    Definitely a little signal for TC genesis during the first ten days of the month but I wouldn’t worry about steering right now.
  17. WxWatcher007
  18. WxWatcher007
    A 384hr op image is nonsense, but the signal for some TC genesis in the MDR is legitimately there on the ensemble guidance.
  19. WxWatcher007
    I don’t think hyperactive happens due to the SST and OHC profile in the MDR, but above average looks as close to a lock as you can get.
  20. WxWatcher007
    The photo is edited to remove some of the noise and contrast issues, but yeah, the Milky Way was clearly visible across the sky once the eyes adjusted to the darkness.
  21. WxWatcher007
    Last night’s wx was perfect too. I was able to head down to RI to do some stargazing. First time capturing images like this. The whole summer has sucked for doing anything like this so I’m glad I could make one night work.
  22. WxWatcher007
    The weather was perfect up here last night so I finally got a chance to go to a dark sky location and capture this. Jupiter also makes an appearance as the brightest “star” in the image.
  23. WxWatcher007
    Great way to end July.
  24. WxWatcher007
    94/77 at CHS. First excessive heat warning there since 2012.
  25. WxWatcher007
    I haven’t been around much. How have you been? Ready for tropical?
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