WxWatcher007

Euro looks much more realistic with regard to Henri’s organization at initialization and hour 24 so far.

Very good discussion of the possibilities by the NHC tonight.

Oh this is definitely more hostile, but 15-18kts of shear is nothing to sneeze at for a small developing system. *cough* Grace *cough* I may or may not have disdain for that TC

Me too. I'm not sure I buy the crawler solutions, but I definitely have some flooding concerns should this track closer to our neck of the woods, especially in eastern CT. It's running south of the kill zone, but yeah, the next 24 hours or so will be critical in determining the ceiling for Henri. If it can maintain some semblance of a core when it gets to the other side of the ridge and a more favorable environment, it bodes well for significant intensification. It's actually a bit impressive to me that it has held strong so far given the shear it has faced.

18z EPS was the most west run yet. Can't get a zoomed in version to see the members but some strong members are in there too.

Totally agree. Don’t get caught up in run to run shifts this far out. I think the lack of development early on by the GFS caused the east shift here. You can see how it’s lopsided for a bit before organizing and intensifying. The track seems very sensitive to intensity, which is going to be very difficult to predict even at short range.

Me either. Depending on heading and track though that trade off could be high impact for coastal sections and inland flooding. Wouldn’t take high end wind to cause a lot of problems, especially in my state lol.

5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 18Location: 29.9°N 67.6°WMoving: W at 9 mphMin pressure: 995 mbMax sustained: 70 mph

Just shy of hurricane status at 5pm

EPS has additional members landfall over SE NE on Sunday afternoon.

It’s a nice visible presentation currently, even in the face of that shear. To really take off it needs to get the eyewall aligned and wrapping upshear to close off fully. Looks like it still might be moving just south of due west.

The structure, although still tilted, is clearly closer to the other globals right now than the euro. Toss all the future NE implications aside, this structure makes it less likely to be completely gutted by shear in the next 24-48 hours before it reaches a more favorable environment.

Euro still wants to effectively kill it on Friday/Saturday. So that’ll be a whiff on this run. The other guidance (minus Euro and Canadian) have Henri intensify nicely based on the environment parallel to the SE/Mid-Atlantic coast, but it’s moving way too slow verbatim to hit stronger than a 1 IMO as it’s on final approach. This far north you can basically lock in a hostile environment for a strong tropical system. It needs to move faster north of the Gulf Stream through landfall to compensate for the increasing rate of structural decay that would happen.

It’s not where it needs to be, but the euro has initialized much better than prior runs. I personally don’t look at the SLP at initialization, but rather the level of organization at low levels.

Ukie is a strong hit over SE New England.

The GFS has been competitive, if not better than the Euro at various elements of tropical prediction, including track forecasting. Every system is different but the GFS is legit for tropical.

That was one hell of a run. That’s as anomalous as it gets with a loop like that over SNE (not out at sea). Also note that the GFS is consistent in showing weakening on final approach.

It just rots over SNE. Long duration tropical event

It would be a cycle or two after the mission is completed. I believe special soundings can be incorporated immediately.

Grace FINALLY meets expectations. Second hurricane of the Atlantic season.

Not much time to post but here’s the latest discussion. Track shifted left again we will have recon going out to sample the environment. That’s huge. Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 Deep convection has been increasing during the past several hours in association with Henri, and the cloud pattern mostly consists of a central dense overcast with some fragmented bands around it. The Dvorak estimates are steady at 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. However, the latest automated Dvorak values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are higher, so it is possible that Henri could be slightly stronger. An SSMIS pass from 1124 UTC showed some southward tilt of the vortex with height and revealed a small mid-level eye feature. Henri continues to move just south of due west at 7 kt. The storm is expected to move westward during the next day or so as it moves in the flow on the south or southeast side of a mid-level ridge. This ridge is expected to slide eastward by Friday as a mid- to upper-level low develops over the Ohio Valley and northeastern U.S. In response, Henri is expected to turn northward or north- northeastward on Friday and continue in that direction through the weekend. One complicating factor is that several of the models show a ridge building over the northwestern Atlantic and Atlantic Canada, which could cause the storm to stay on a more northward track closer to New England than currently forecast. The spread in the models for Henri's future track is quite large, with some guidance as far west as Long Island and as far east as 62W longitude. Overall, the models continue to walk left each cycle, and the NHC track forecast has again been shifted in that direction. NOAA Gulfstream IV missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled, and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the longer range track forecasts, users should be prepared for additional adjustments to the NHC track forecast in future forecast cycles. The storm is currently in an environment of about 15-20 kt of northerly wind shear according to the SHIPS model and analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Since the shear is expected to persist or become a little stronger during the next couple of days, little change in strength is predicted during that time period. After that time, the shear is expected to lessen and that should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane by the weekend. Some weakening is shown by the end of the period when Henri is forecast to be moving over cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is just a little lower than the consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Swells from Henri could reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. 2. Uncertainty in the track forecast for Henri this weekend and early next week is larger than usual, and there is some risk of direct impacts from Henri in portions of the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada during that time. Interests in these areas should follow updates to the forecast through the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 30.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 29.9N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 30.1N 71.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 30.7N 72.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 32.1N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 34.2N 71.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 38.0N 69.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 41.0N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Adding D26 for good measure

It just seems so off to me on intensity. Henri looks like it could hold its own when it runs into that shear later, and it should have a favorable environment for a while as it parallels the coast. I know though that small systems can really get torn apart when encountering significant shear.