WxWatcher007

I just meant not worth discussing in terms of verbatim impacts here in SNE. That’s a prickly response to my post, but that’s alright. I’m simply stating that the steering environment as currently modeled is more conducive for casual tracking and discussion than straight flushing it. I’m not calling for play by play of cherry picked operational guidance or weenie IR hallucinations. I know it’s usually HECS or bust for you but there’s a lot of marginal stuff that may not bring exciting conditions to your backyard in between that’s worth a little discussion.

Let me just be clear. I’m less concerned with what the models show and more intrigued by the broader trend so far, which has been more west/strong in the presence of a ridge/trough pairing that if positioned and timed right could make things more interesting. Given the environment, while highly unlikely at the moment, there is a window for something more interesting if things align. Obviously two different setups but Grace went from a S FL 5 day NHC forecast to a Bay of Campeche forecast in 48 hours. That’s the exception to the rule but it’s a reminder that track and intensity forecasting in tropical is still really hard in complex setups when models are playing catch up to the actual environmental conditions.

You’ll get your 1938 redux from a Bermuda low the models couldn’t sniff out until it developed and like it

That site is good for quick panels but use pivotal or another site for higher resolution. It’s a heck of a low off the coast verbatim.

Not really worth discussing more since the Ukie has been bad with tropical this season IMO (though all the models have had their bad moments), but Henri is far stronger on the higher resolution Ukmet. I really do think OTS is most likely, but I wouldn’t say it’s a lock. Everything would really need to come into place fairly quickly for any type of impact here. The models have really struggled this season as a whole.

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 Henri remains a sheared tropical storm. Geostationary satellite images and microwave data show a relatively large area of deep convection (~200 miles across), but the center of the storm is located near the western edge of the thunderstorms due to ongoing northwesterly vertical wind shear. The latest Dvorak estimates have been steady at 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The center of Henri is located roughly 130 miles south-southeast of Bermuda currently, and this will likely be as close as the storm gets to the island. The tropical storm is gradually turning to the west, as expected, and the initial motion is estimated to be 255/5 kt. A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic is building eastward to the north of Henri, and this feature should steer the storm westward at a slightly faster pace during the next two or three days. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken and shift farther east as a cut off low or negatively-tilted trough develops over the northeast U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause Henri to turn northeastward between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S in the 72-120 h period. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one in the short term and farther west than the previous one from days 3-5, trending toward the latest consensus models. The northwesterly shear currently affecting Henri is expected to subside later today, and that should allow the storm to gain strength during the next 12-24 hours. However, a round of moderate northerly shear is expected to setup over Henri during the 24-96 hour period. Although this shear would typically cause some weakening, the combination of warm SSTs and increasing mid-level moisture could offset the negative influences of the shear. Therefore, no change in strength is predicted beyond the 24 h period. Some of the models suggest that the shear could lessen again this weekend, so although not explicitly forecast, some strengthening is possible then. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 30.4N 64.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 30.4N 65.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 30.3N 68.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 30.4N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 30.7N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 31.6N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 34.1N 69.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 37.4N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Smart money on OTS of course, but the intensity guidance is really playing catch up. This could be the strongest system of the season if it can find itself further west and away from stronger shear.

I do like the hurricane potential this weekend when Henri turns north towards the gulf stream. If timed right, it will be between two upper troughs with good thermodynamic support. Should be sufficient ventilation for a stronger hurricane as it heads into the maritimes by early next week. The guidance has been unusually slow catching up to this one, so it’d fit the theme of the season, and this storm, for it to produce a “surprise”. As you both said—it looks quite good this morning.

Guidance got to it eventually but yeah, this is nuts. There have been a lot of forecasting challenges this season.

HWRF has struggled mightily this season and the NHC has noted it. Quite a shame since it can be an excellent model.

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 Deep convection has persisted near and southeast of the center of the small tropical cyclone today, and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were a consensus T2.5 (35 kt) at 1800 UTC. Objective estimates from ADT and SATCON also support tropical storm status, therefore the depression has been upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm with this advisory. Henri (ahn-REE) becomes the eighth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. This is the fourth-earliest eighth storm on record with only 2020, 2005, and 1936 having the eighth-named storm form earlier in the season. Henri is located over warm waters, but is currently being affected by light to moderate northerly shear and dry mid-level air in the surrounding environment. Although these conditions are not overly conducive for strengthening, most of the intensity guidance supports gradual intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours. After that time, a significant increase in northeasterly upper-level winds is depicted by the global models over the system, which is likely to halt further strengthening. In fact, given the small size of Henri, it is likely to be more susceptible to the increase in shear, and it could weaken faster than indicated below. The HWRF remains more aggressive, but given the expected increase in shear, that solution still does not seem likely. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the LGEM model, and is slightly below the IVCN intensity consensus. The tropical storm is moving south-southwestward or 200/6 kt. Henri is forecast to move west-southwestward during the next 12-24 hours around the southeastern side of a mid-tropospheric high over the western Atlantic. After that time, Henri should turn westward as the ridge shifts eastward to the north of the tropical cyclone, and after 72 hours Henri is expected to approach the western extent of the ridge and should turn northward and then north-northeastward. The dynamical model guidance is in somewhat better agreement during the next 48-72 hours, but there remains some spread later in the period as to how sharp of northward turn occurs. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 31.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 30.5N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 30.3N 64.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 30.2N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 30.2N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 30.3N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 30.5N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 31.8N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 34.2N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

I blame lack of sleep lol

Yeah—I think smart money is on out to sea, but still worth a casual eye I suppose since Grace wants to drive toward the equator now

At least I was in the ballpark on my wind call (60-65mph). Not sure how the hell I ended up so far off on pressure though (1005mb).

It’s still incredible to me that we went from a possible S FL hit to possible Bay of Campeche hit in two days.

The latest VDM did show an eyewall developing but open to the south, and that presentation has eroded a bit recently on radar. Recon about to do a SE to NW pass.

Good call

06z Euro brings a fair amount of rain, especially for the western part of the subforum.

65kt FL winds showing up in the NE quadrant as recon attempts a NE to SW center pass.

True, but this is far more organized than the fleeting burst of organization we saw yesterday. Very interesting to watch on radar and recon.

VDM from recon. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 12:40ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302Storm Name: GraceStorm Number & Year: 07 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 6Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 12:09:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.57N 70.82WB. Center Fix Location: 86 statute miles (139 km) to the SW (223°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 749m (2,457ft) at 925mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - ExtrapolatedE. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NAF. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 37kts (42.6mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ESE (106°) of center fix at 11:58:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 158° at 38kts (From the SSE at 43.7mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ESE (108°) of center fix at 11:58:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 37kts (42.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 4 nautical miles to the W (261°) of center fix at 12:07:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 332° at 36kts (From the NNW at 41.4mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SW (229°) of center fix at 12:16:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 740m (2,428ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 762m (2,500ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 925mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ESE (108°) from the flight level center at 11:58:30Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

GFS might not be terribly far off given what we're seeing so far this morning. Very impressive pressure drop.

Fred is making a run at hurricane intensity Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 730 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND FRED INTENSIFYING AND LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Fred is intensifying this morning, and now has maximum sustained winds near 60 mph (95 km/h), with an estimated minimum central pressure of 993 mb (29.32 inches). Data from the aircraft and National Weather Service Doppler radar indicate that Fred is now moving toward the north at 10 mph (17 km/h). SUMMARY OF 730 AM CDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 85.6W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brennan/Pasch